Que me googled 2017

Por qué ha habido una campaña mediática contra la ocupación este verano y no otro?

2020.11.29 19:51 PavloSerrano Por qué ha habido una campaña mediática contra la ocupación este verano y no otro?

Por qué ha habido una campaña mediática contra la ocupación este verano y no otro?
Primero de todo, me gustaría aclarar que este post no es sobre la ocupación en sí, sino sobre el tratamiento mediático que ha recibido este verano.
La ocupación es un problema que se debe solucionar. Es un problemazo tanto para el propietario, que la pasa putas para recuperar algo que es suyo como para el que se ve forzado a usurpar. Una muestra clara de cómo el estado ha fallado en proveer acceso a la vivienda digna.
Voy a exponer los hechos que me hacen pensar esto:
HECHOS:
1 - Las noticias sobre la ocupación se han multiplicado por 4 este verano.
Hice un estudio de los top 10 medios más vistos de España y el número de noticias pasó de unas 5 al mes de media, a más de 20. (El sreenshot es de este vídeo)
https://preview.redd.it/shh2ohf968261.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=71edfa16fb578c343d9b51d2def5577cd935df11
2 - Las ocupaciones subieron un 5%, en 2019 y en 2018 subieron un 20% y un 15% y no hubo ninguna alarma mediática. (screenshot de aquí)
https://preview.redd.it/s3scccb268261.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=79db4cb443cf29824bf651ce6f0b2878b2ddbcb0
Con estos dos hechos, la siguiente pregunta que me hice fue:
POR QUÉ OCURRIÓ ESTA ALARMA MEDIÁTICA ESTE AÑO y no antes?
No sabía por donde empezar, así que me pregunté primero: ¿quién se beneficia del miedo?
Bueno, hay tres grupos principales:
Los medios de comunicación, que saben que las noticias que generan miedo y enfado captan más nuestra atención (Berguer and Milkman 2011).
Los partidos políticos de derecha, porque el miedo nos hace más conservadores (Nail et al. 2009). Además, encaja muy bien en lo que Ruth Wodak define como 'Las políticas del Miedo'. Que se basan en construir y exagerar un problema que amenaza a los "Españoles de bien" y erigirse ellos como los defensores, normalmente con soluciones simples.
Sin embargo, los que más se benefician del miedo son las empresas de seguridad como Securitas Direct o Prosegur. Que ya vieron en 2017 limitada su capacidad de expandir el miedo para vender más:
Autocontrol conmina al cese de un anuncio de alarmas por explotación desproporcionada del miedo al robo. El Economista
No es difícil ver cómo estas dos empresas tienen muchísimo control sobre los medios: Primero, como anunciantes. Securitas suele estar en el top en los rankings de presión publicitaria en TV. Sin ir más lejos, estuvo 3ero en Agosto. También con publirreportajes encubiertos como este (podéis encontrar más en este vídeo o en la lista de fuente que pondré abajo).

Pero, lo más importante, desde 2019 y 2020, Securitas Direct y Prosegur comparten inversores con los medios.

Los March invierten 557 millones en Securitas Direct. Expansion (Abr 2019)

Telefónica cierra la compra del 50% del negocio de alarmas de Prosegur por 305 millones. El País (Feb 2020)
Por eso ocurrió esta campaña este verano y no antes.
Me gustaría repetir que no intento quitar hierro al problema de la ocupación, pero me da rabia que los medios hayan usado el dolor de algunos propietarios para infundar miedo, bulos y desconocimiento. Si de verdad quisieran solventar el problema, habrían informado bien sobre las leyes, sobre qué significa morada, usurparción y allanamiento, sobre la ley de desahucios express que, sin estar la justicia saturada, tardarían 20 días en sacar al ocupa de una vivienda. En lugar de eso, hicieron creer que se te iban a meter en tu casa y que tenías solo 48 horas para denunciar. BULO. La real problema para un propietario es que el inquilino no le pague. No que vayan a meterse en tu vivienda cuando te vas de vacaciones.
Pero repito, ese no es el debate, sino el tratamiento mediático.
Muchas gracias por leer, me encantaría ver vuestras opiniones.
Un saludo.
P.d.: este texto es un resumen de una investigación que publiqué en dos vídeos en youtube. Sobre la desinformación mediática, y la dependencia de los medios.
FUENTES: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1aFWNfR-vWE8WOuipcLMohKDgMtLgWjKh3hKKGjScz48/
submitted by PavloSerrano to podemos [link] [comments]


2020.11.28 00:00 menem95 Análisis Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Análisis Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Hola, ¿cómo andan? Hoy les traigo el análisis que hice de Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), quizás a alguien le sirva. No hace falta aclarar que están invitados a debatir o criticar cuestiones relativas a la compañía, al informe, etc. Algunos en el ultimo post (Análisis de Walmart) habían pedido análisis de otras compañías (MSFT, NVDA y QCOM creo), por lo que posiblemente el próximo post sea sobre alguna de esas empresas.
Dicho esto, comenzamos:
Las conclusiones que saque sobre la compañía son las siguientes:
  • La compañía presenta buenos resultados, ganancias estables y (a largo plazo) en alza, deuda aceptable (poca sujeta a interés variable). Financieramente son muy eficientes, los márgenes y ratios dan cuenta de ello.
  • Política de M&A agresiva, pero que, considerando que se trata de una Mega Cap, no incide de forma determinante en las finanzas de la compañía. No obstante, sería interesante examinar la cuestión más en profundidad.
  • El éxito de Apple se debe en gran parte al ecosistema que generó, que mantiene “cautivos” a sus clientes consumiendo productos de la misma marca. El producto estrella, y la puerta de entrada a ese ecosistema, es claramente el iPhone.
  • Las ventas del iPhone (a diferencia de todos los otros segmentos) han declinado los últimos años, si bien este año se experimentó una caída general del mercado de smartphones. Es para destacar que el último iPhone es el primero en incorporar tecnología 5G.
  • Prácticamente todo el éxito de la compañía depende del éxito del iPhone, en la medida que este producto pierda o gane mercado se afectará al resto de los productos que ofrece Apple. En ese sentido, es esperanzadora la incorporación de 5G (que puede llevar a mayor recambio de equipos y mayores ventas de iPhone), pero no se ven cambios significativos ni en precio ni en prestaciones, que puedan generar expectativa de una ganancia de marketshare significativa.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)[1] es una empresa multinacional de tecnología, basada en Cupertino, CA, EEUU. AAPL se dedica al diseño, desarrollo y venta de software, bienes de consumo (electrónica) y servicios online. Es una de las Big Five tecnológicas (también conocidas como Big Tech o FAANG), junto con Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) y Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
La empresa fue fundada en 1976 por Steve Jobs, Steve “Woz” Wozniak y Ronald Wayne. Tras una larga e interesante historia que incluye la salida de sus tres fundadores, incluida la renuncia escandalosa de Steve Jobs (cuya historia merece un post aparte)[2] en 1985 y su regreso triunfal en 1997, Apple logró consolidarse como una de las compañías mas exitosas e innovadoras en diversos sectores y segmentos relacionados con la tecnología.
Los productos de la compañía incluyen hardware como el iPhone (su producto estrella), la Tablet iPad, la computadora Mac, el reproductor multimedia iPod, el smartwatch Apple Watch, el Apple TV, los Airpods, y el HomePod. También tienen software (macOS, iOS, iPadOS, watchOS, tvOS, iTunes, Shazam, Safari, iLife, iWork, Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro y Xcode). También tienen servicios digitales (iTunes Store, App Store de iOS y Mac, Apple TV+, Apple Music, iMessage, iCloud, Apple Store, Genius Bar, AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple Card).
Hoy en día, la empresa es sencillamente inmensa. En 2018 se convirtió en la primera compañía estadounidense en alcanzar 1 billón de dólares de capitalización de mercado.[3] Se estimaba que a enero de 2020 había alrededor de 1500 millones de dispositivos activos de la marca alrededor del mundo.[4] Apple reportó aproximadamente 147.000 empleados y tiene más de 500 tiendas físicas en 25 países.[5] La marca, sobre la que también hay mucho por decir, es la más reconocida del mundo, según reportan medios como Forbes o Business Insider.[6]
Apple cotiza en el NASDAQ bajo el ticker AAPL, la compañía integra varios índices, principalmente el DJIA, el S&P 500 y el NASDAQ 100. Al cierre del 13/11 la capitalización de mercado de la empresa se ubicaba en el orden de los 1,973 billones de USD, lo que denota un enorme tamaño. La acción cerró el 25/11 a $116,03.
Evaluando un poco la performance de la acción el último año, Apple experimentó una leve corrección desde haber alcanzado niveles en el orden de los 130-132 puntos a principios de septiembre y desde entonces se mantiene en el rango de los 110-120 puntos aproximadamente. En cuanto a su volatilidad ostenta una beta (5 años, mensual) de 1,35. Al cierre del 13/11 está ligeramente por debajo de la media móvil (SMA) de 30 días (116,29), pero por encima de la de 90 días (114,57) y de 200 días (94,04). Apple lleva acumulada una suba del 77,29% los últimos 12 meses, contra 46,91% del NASDAQ 100, 16,7% del S&P 500 y 7,16% del DJIA. Respecto al resto de las FAANG en el mismo periodo de tiempo, tuvo un buen desempeño dado que fue superada solo por Amazon que rindió un 82,45%, mientras que superó a las otras que rindieron, Netflix un 56,21%, Facebook un 38,61% y Google (Class A) un 36,37%.[7]

AAPL (azul) contra las otras FAANG (TTM). Fuente: TradingView
El último pago de dividendos de la compañía se hizo el 6/11 de este año por $0,205 por acción. Ha pagado constantemente dividendos desde 2012.[8]
Yendo al análisis de los estados financieros que reporta AAPL, corresponde analizar la evolución del flujo de efectivo de operaciones los últimos 10 años:
Año fiscal (sep-sep) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CF de operaciones (mill. USD) 37529 50856 53666 59713 81266 66231 64225 77434 69391 80674
Dif. Anual % - 35,51 5,53 11,27 36,09 -18,5 -3,03 20,57 -10,39 16,26
Vemos un crecimiento relativamente estable del flujo de efectivo de operaciones los últimos 10 años, alcanzando niveles de mas del doble que los registrados al principio de la serie. En lo que respecta al free cash Flow (también conocido como owner earnings), arroja para el último año fiscal un valor de 73.365M USD, habiendo crecido significantemente los últimos 5 años. Sobre las ventas, existiendo ingresos por 274.515M USD, esto representa un impresionante 26% de FCF/ventas (contra un 22,6% del año anterior).
Apple reporta activos corrientes por 143.713M USD y pasivos corrientes por 105.392M USD, lo que arroja un capital de trabajo de 38.321M de dólares (current ratio de 1,36). La deuda de largo plazo es de 98.667M USD (7,4% de incremento interanual). De esta deuda, una ínfima parte (2.250M USD) está sujeta a tasas variables. Podemos observar que Apple tiene un inventory turnover de 37,25.[9] También cabe destacar que la incidencia de propiedades, plantas y equipamiento (PP&E) sobre los activos totales es del 8,8%.
En cuanto al historial de ganancias de la compañía:
Año fiscal (sep-sep) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net income (mill. USD) 25922 41733 37037 39510 53394 45687 48351 59531 55256 57411
Dif. Anual % - 60,99 -11,25 6,68 35,14 -14,43 5,83 23,12 -7,18 3,9
Como se puede ver en el cuadro, la empresa no tiene un año fiscal negativo hace años (de hecho, la última vez fue en el año fiscal 2001, cuando reportó pérdidas por solo 25 millones de dólares), y se observa (tomando el promedio de los primeros 3 años y los últimos 3 de la serie mostrada en el cuadro), un crecimiento en las ganancias del 64,5%.
Apple tiene una política de fusiones y adquisiciones agresiva, el mismo Tim Cook admitió en 2019 que compran una compañía cada varias semanas.[10] De estas adquisiciones que realiza Apple, en su mayoría se trata de empresas chicas, siendo la más onerosa por mucho la adquisición de Beats Electronics (la compañía de auriculares del rapero Dr. Dre), por 3.000M USD (aprox.) en 2014, seguida muy de lejos por la adquisición de la división de módems para smartphone de Intel por 1.000M USD (aprox.) en 2019.[11]
Yendo un poco a las métricas y ratios que presentan los números de Apple, vemos que el EPS anual (básico) reportado es de 3.31, registrando una suba contra 2,99 de 2019 y 3,00 de 2018. Diluido este valor es de 3,28 para 2020. En una base trimestral, Apple reporta un EPS (básico) de 0,74 para el último trimestre, en comparación con el 0,76 del mismo trimestre del año anterior.
En base al EPS diluido anual el P/E se encuentra en el orden de 35,38. Lo que puede parecer en abstracto una cifra relativamente elevada, deja de serlo si consideramos que el P/E promedio del NASDAQ 100 es de 37,92 y el del S&P 500 es de 41,34.[12] En cuanto al sector, Finviz reporta un P/E promedio de 38,55, tomando en cuenta 624 tickers.[13]
El margen neto de la compañía se ubica en 20,9%, es decir que, por cada dólar vendido, 21 centavos se traducen en ganancias. Esta cifra se redujo ligeramente respecto al 21,2% reportado en 2019, y del 22,4% reportado en 2018. En 2017 y 2016 también habían alcanzado números superiores (21,1% y 21,2% respectivamente). De manera tal que entiendo que el margen permanece relativamente estable pero habría que prestarle atención a la eficiencia de la compañía si continua a la baja.
Corresponde mirar el Return on Equity (ROE) así como el Return on Assets (ROA). Entendemos que el margen neto es de 20,9%, mientras que la rotación de activos es de 0,85, por lo que el ROA se ubica en el orden de 17,73%, siguiendo una línea ascendente los últimos años. El ROE por su parte calculo que está en el orden de 87,86%, lo que resulta muy alto. Cabe destacar que entre los datos que condujeron a estos resultados encontramos que la relación entre activos y capital de los accionistas es de 4,96, lo que resulta un valor alto, que implica cierto riesgo. Por su parte, el debt to equity ratio es de 1,51. Por último cabe recordar que el current ratio es de 1,36, y el quick ratio es de 1,33.
En lo que respecta al soporte institucional, 59,78% del flotante lo poseen instituciones, un numero aceptable pero no excesivo. Los principales holders son, Vanguard, con el 7,53%, Blackrock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) con el 6.29%, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B), con el 5,55%, State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), con el 3,96% y FMR LLC (Fidelity Investments) con el 2,04%. Es para destacar la fuerte participación de Berkshire Hathaway, el fondo del legendario Warren Buffett, que como regla general es esceptico respecto de empresas tecnológicas.[14]
En lo que respecta al management de Apple[15], desde poco antes de la muerte del legendario Steve Jobs en 2011 (histórico líder y cofundador de la compañía), Apple esta bajo el mando de Tim Cook, que es empleado de la misma desde 1998. No hay mucho para decir sobre Cook, simplemente me voy a limitar a decir lo obvio, no tiene la inventiva y creatividad de Jobs, si bien eso no significa que sea un mal ejecutivo.
En lo que respecta a la compensación de los ejecutivos de la compañía, Tim Cook, el CEO, percibió en 2019 una compensación de $11.555.466 (un número más que aceptable si pensamos en lo que cobran ejecutivos de otras compañías de envergadura similar), mientras que los demás executive officers cobraron en promedio $23.417.416. De estas compensaciones, el salario base ocupa una proporción baja (menos del 5% de la compensación total, salvo para Tim Cook, que no recibe stock awards y la incidencia del salario base es de más del 25%), lo que es una buena señal. Mientras el monto de los premios en acciones que reciben los ejecutivos ($20.600.638 en promedio, 88% de la compensación), lo cual resulta bueno ya que no hay un programa de opciones grande, y además implica que gran parte de la compensación de los ejecutivos está sujeta al desempeño de la compañía. En cuanto a la cantidad de acciones de la compañía que efectivamente poseen[16], Tim Cook tiene 847.969 acciones, mientras que el total de los executive officers y directores de la compañía poseen 2.398.916. Apple no reporta potenciales conflictos de intereses entre los intereses de sus ejecutivos y la compañía, solo encontramos de interés que una de las directoras, Sue Wagner, es además cofundadora de Blackrock Inc. (retirada en 2012), que es uno de los principales tenedores accionarios de Apple.
En cuanto a la dimensión cualitativa del management, como mencionamos, Apple tiene una política de fusiones y adquisiciones agresiva, lo que puede ser algo a considerar. En cuanto a los retornos (ROE y ROA) vemos que han ido en ascenso los últimos 5 años de forma prácticamente ininterrumpida. En cuanto a emisión de acciones, vemos que las cantidades tenidas en cuenta a la hora de hacer los respectivos cálculos han ido descendiendo.
Para entender la situación actual de Apple, es decir, donde se encuentra, primero hay que volver a mencionar como se estructura la empresa en relación a sus productos y la incidencia de cada uno de estos en los números. En ese sentido, la estrella absoluta de la compañía es el iPhone, que concentra en 2020 el 50,19% de las ventas totales, no obstante, se ha reducido bastante (un 16,4%) en relación a 2018. El segmento que le sigue es el de servicios (Apple Care, Apple TV+, ventas por advertising, etc.), con 19,59% de las ventas totales, y en tercer lugar esta el segmento de “wearables, home and accesories (Apple TV, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats, iPod, etc.), con 11,15%. Estos dos segmentos fueron los que mas crecieron desde 2018 (35% y 76% respectivamente). Mientras que el 19% restante se lo dividen los segmentos de Mac y iPad.

Ingresos discriminados por producto. Fuente: Apple Inc.
La realidad es que, en cuanto a los productos Apple en general, existe una diferenciación percibida del producto muy importante, la marca de la “manzanita” es tan reconocida, que se ha transformado en un símbolo de estatus, así como también genero grupos de “fans” o entusiastas de la marca. Parece ser, ante esta perspectiva, que lo que importa no es tanto el producto, sino la marca.[17] Ante este panorama, tengo que destacar dos cuestiones, primero, que Tim Cook no es Steve Jobs, y no tiene ese carisma de “vendedor” que este poseía, en mi humilde opinión, Apple perdió la capacidad de sorprender.[18] En segundo lugar, la industria en la que opera Apple es extremadamente competitiva, por lo que si bien es innegable que la marca los ayudó (y mucho), no se puede depender únicamente de ellas, en ese sentido, cabe mencionar que la inversión en inversión y desarrollo se incrementó fuertemente los últimos años.
Otra cuestión general a los productos Apple, que explica en parte la fidelidad que generan en los consumidores, es la cuestión relativa al “ecosistema” Apple. Esto responde a una postura filosófica del propio Steve Jobs, que desde los inicios de la compañía creía que tanto el hardware como el software de una computadora, debían estar firmemente entrelazados, creía que lo mejor era controlar end-to-end la experiencia del usuario, es decir, que ellos debían proveer todo. A medida que fueron lanzando nuevos dispositivos, esta filosofía se extendió a ellos, creando una especie de red, en la que el completo aprovechamiento de los dispositivos se hacía posible solo cuando el resto de los dispositivos del usuario fuesen de marca Apple. Esta cuestión sigue vigente, si bien en los últimos años se vieron varios intentos de “atenuarla”.[19]
Lo cierto es que, pese a esa fidelidad que mencionábamos anteriormente, las ventas del producto estrella, el iPhone, están descendiendo año tras año. En su reporte anual, Apple menciona que la caída en las ventas en 2020 se debió a la ausencia de nuevos iPhone en el Q4 y la debilidad de las divisas extranjeras frente al dólar estadounidense. No obstante, vemos que la caída no comenzó en 2020, sino que ya 2019 presentaba un resultado negativo en comparación con 2018, tanto si se lo mide en ingresos o en ventas unitarias.[20] En cuanto al precio, arrancando con el iPhone SE a partir de 400 dólares en EEUU, es conocido que apuntan más que nada a los segmentos premium del mercado.[21] Puede decirse que el iPhone no cambia demasiado modelo tras modelo, hace rato no vemos un gamechanger cómo se podía observar en años anteriores. Aquí es donde entra a jugar un factor hasta ahora no mencionado, el 5G. El iPhone 12 es el primero de la marca en incorporar esta tecnología y podría esperarse un incremento en las ventas a raíz de esto (sobre todo por el lock in de los consumidores mencionado anteriormente).
En segundo lugar, es para destacar el ascenso del segmento de servicios que incluye, entre otras cosas iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Music, etc. Una observación que se puede hacer es que los números presentados incluyen amortización de servicios que son gratuitos para los que compran hardware Apple (por ejemplo: Maps, Siri, o los 12 meses gratis de Apple TV+), de manera tal que si caen las ventas de otros productos (como el iPhone), puede caer el resultado por ventas de servicios. Otra observación es que Apple lanzó hace poco un bundle de servicios llamado Apple One, que ofrece en su plan mas básico 4 servicios (Music, TV+, Arcade y 50GB de iCloud) por 14.95, lo que si consideramos por ejemplo el precio de subscripciones individuales de solo dos competidores (Netflix y Spotify), resulta más que atractivo.[22]
Tercero, realmente sorprende el ascenso del segmento de wearables, home and accesories, que comprende una variedad interesante de productos. El primer producto de la categoría que llama la atención es el Apple Watch, los reportes indican que Apple concentra con este producto mas de la mitad del mercado global de los smartwatchs.[23] Al respecto cabe destacar que los relojes Apple inician en 199 dólares (Apple Watch Series 3), mientras que otros relojes comparables (Huawei GT2 o Samsung Watch Active 2), tienen precios inferiores. La otra cuestión es que el Apple Watch solo se conecta con los iPhone, por lo que será otra variable a considerar al estimar el desempeño futuro de este segmento. Esta situación, con distintos grados de intensidad, se repite a lo largo de los otros productos del segmento, básicamente, la funcionalidad de los mismos depende del ecosistema, y resultan caros comparativamente. La excepción esta en los auriculares que ofrece Apple, que no son dependientes del ecosistema, tanto los ofrecidos bajo la marca Beats (fundada por el rapero Dr. Dre), así como los AirPods. Respecto de los primeros, resultan competitivos dentro del mercado de auriculares premium, mientras que los segundos resultan bastante caros, incluso comparados con su competencia directa (Samsung Galaxy Buds).
Por último, quedan dos líneas de productos, el iPad, y la línea Mac. Ambos han crecido los últimos años, aunque no experimentan cambios significativos con modelos anteriores. Respecto al iPad, podría decirse que su principal ventaja competitiva es que hay pocas alternativas en el mercado de tablets premium (quizás la Surface de Microsoft y la Galaxy Tab de Samsung son las únicas competidoras). Mientras que la Mac presenta como ventaja, entre otras cosas, el software propietario, que garantiza al usuario Apple una mejor experiencia al tener todo “integrado”.
Siendo este el escenario, las perspectivas a futuro de Apple parecen girar sobre una cuestión central, las ventas del iPhone. Es un hecho que las ventas de smartphones cayeron en términos generales en 2020.[24] También me parece que la batalla por los teléfonos 5G está comenzando, y que muchos usuarios poseedores de teléfonos iPhone apostarán a un recambio en busca de adaptarse a esta nueva tecnología de conectividad. Creo también que es cierto que Apple perdió esa ventaja comparativa que conseguía en base al diseño, el “ecosistema” que mencioné anteriormente, y las innovaciones tecnológicas periódicas, que conseguían una experiencia final única para el usuario.
La única alternativa posible a mantener el iPhone como producto insignia, en mi humilde opinión, es ampliar la esfera de consumidores Apple a través de las Mac y los iPad. Pero esta alternativa me parece mucho más difícil de conseguir. Respecto a las Mac, si bien parecería que han ganado mercado en los últimos años, lo cierto es que la posición dominante la tiene Windows, y las escasas opciones de personalización que Apple ofrece, parecerían imposibilitar el dominio futuro de las Mac en el mercado de los ordenadores.[25] En cuanto al iPad, si bien es el modelo de Tablet más vendido a nivel mundial, sigue siendo un segmento muy pequeño para mover los números de la compañía, y no habría muchas razones para que crezca significativamente a futuro.[26]
El iPhone por su parte, concentra el 40% del mercado de smartphones estadounidense por fabricante,[27] y hay una razón adicional que lleva a concluir que es el producto idóneo (y posiblemente el único), que sirva de puerta de entrada al ecosistema Apple. Esta razón (que reconozco que es al menos cuestionable), es que hoy en día la vida sin un smartphone es impensada, mientras que es mucho más factible prescindir de una tablet, e incluso de un ordenador personal.
En cuanto a las divisiones de servicios y wearables, home and accesories, si bien crecieron y mucho los últimos años, no me parecen idóneas para mantener a flote la compañía. En el caso del segmento de wearables, home and accesories, la razón ya fue expuesta, al final del día, el éxito del segmento está determinado por los consumidores de los segmentos anteriores, a nadie le sirve un Apple Watch sin un iPhone, quizás puede discutirse el mercado de auriculares, pero claramente no es suficiente para mantener a la compañía.
En cuanto a los servicios, si bien migrar a una compañía de servicios (música y video on demand, por ejemplo), podría ser una alternativa viable, lo cierto es que haría perder a Apple su esencia. Esta empresa llevó a capturar un mercado extremadamente fiel al controlar end-to-end la experiencia de usuario, ciertamente dejar de lado esta filosofía (que además implicaría casi sin lugar a dudas abandonar esa “exclusividad” y estatus que otorga la marca Apple), nos haría preguntarnos si sigue siendo la empresa que vale casi 2 billones de dólares.
Por supuesto, todo esto no quiere decir que el final de Apple este cerca ni mucho menos, es indudable que es una empresa extremadamente sólida, con resultados financieros extremadamente buenos, y con una relevancia importante en los mercados en los que compite. No obstante, no podía dejar de plantear esta duda sobre las expectativas de largo (quizás muy largo) plazo de la compañía.
Disclaimer: La presente investigación y análisis no debe entenderse de manera alguna como una recomendación o sugerencia de inversión. El autor recomienda enfáticamente a los lectores la realización de investigación propia con la debida diligencia.
[1] En principio la investigación se hace en base a los filings de Apple ante la SEC, principalmente los Forms 10-K y 10-Q, disponibles en https://investor.apple.com/sec-filings/default.aspx y en base a los datos recopilados en Yahoo! Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/). Valores en dinero expresados en dólares estadounidenses. Fuentes adicionales expresadas en las notas subsiguientes.
[2] Es extremadamente recomendable la biografía autorizada de Steve Jobs que realizó Walter Isaacson.
[3] Ver: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/apple-hits-1-trillion-in-market-value.html (aclaración: “trillion” en inglés equivale a “billón” en español).
[4] Ver: https://www.macrumors.com/2020/01/28/apple-1-5-billion-active-devices-worldwide/
[5] Ver: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-retail-stores/
[6] Ver Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/the-worlds-most-valuable-brands/#633348ce119c y Business Insider: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interbrand-top-10-brands-in-the-world-2019-10-1028610273
[7] Comparaciones de TradingView
[8] Ver: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/dividend-history
[9] Para el cálculo excluí costo de servicios, dado que era irrelevante a los fines de calcular la rotación de inventarios.
[10] Ver: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/apple-buys-a-company-every-few-weeks-says-ceo-tim-cook.html
[11] Infografía detallada hasta mayo 2020 en: https://www.cbinsights.com/research/apple-biggest-acquisitions-infographic/
[12] Según Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
[13] Ver: https://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=sector&v=120&o=-pe
[14] De hecho, Buffett reconoció públicamente que debería haber invertido antes en ella, ver: Warren Buffett on Apple: It's an incredible company and I should have it appreciated it sooner - YouTube
[15] Datos del proxy statement de Apple. Aún no se ha presentado la declaración respectiva a 2020, por lo que los datos son los correspondientes a la ultima declaración vigente, presentada en enero 2020 y correspondiente a 2019.
[16] La cifra incluye restricted stock units que serán ejercidas en los 60 días después de la publicación citada.
[17] Esto se viene planteando hace años y es una discusión recurrente entre los entusiastas de la tecnología, por ejemplo, en esta nota de Wired: Apple: It's All About the Brand WIRED
[18] Basta con ver la última presentación del iPhone 12 (Apple Event — October 13 - YouTube) y compararla con la primera, realizada por Jobs (Steve Jobs iPhone 2007 Presentation (HD) - YouTube).
[19] Por ejemplo, el intento de que Apple utilice cargadores estándar, por cuestiones ambientales: EU votes for "Right to repair" avoiding unnecessary electronic waste - Macworld UK
[20] Apple en 2019 dejó de publicar ventas unitarias, pero algunos blogs especializados proveen esa información: Above Avalon
[21] Precios en: iPhone - Apple
[22] Precios en: Apple One - Apple
[23] Ver: Apple Watch sales still strong in 2020 despite coronavirus report says - Business Insider y Global Smartwatch Market Revenue up 20% in H1 2020 (counterpointresearch.com)
[24] Ver: Canalys Newsroom- Global smartphone market Q3 2020
[25] Ver: • Desktop OS market share 2020 Statista
[26] Ver: Apple's iPad led the Global Tablets Market in Q2 2020 Doubling Samsung's Shipments - Patently Apple
[27] Ver: US Smartphone Market Share: By Quarter: Counterpoint (counterpointresearch.com)
submitted by menem95 to merval [link] [comments]


2020.11.26 05:41 sebastianxce Evidence of Giants?

Evidence of Giants?
This is a deep subject so, I'm only going to post my sources of information in a layed out way that I have not seen before. I expect this to be a long post, with important subjects so I will cram them together and it will require some extra clicking on your part if you want to fact check based on my links.
This is speculation and gathered evidence to help everyone come to their own conclusion I am not accusing any organization or party to be responsible, yet am only providing the obvious trails left for us to pick up.
GIGANTISM:
https://preview.redd.it/8w22q2otuh161.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c24de27b8e155c2966a286cdaef7ff396d741f3
Yes we all know about Gigantism, what causes it? Those with Gigantism have been recoreded to have larger Pinael Glands in the past, today we refer to the as a tumor; "By definition, gigantism must occur during childhood before the growth plates in the long bones of the body (for example, the femur or humerus) have closed. In adults, the condition is called acromegaly. Gigantism is most often caused by a benign tumor on the pituitary gland called a pituitary adenoma. "
I wont go into the pineal gland, thats for you to get into, but that is a very interesting area of your brain and its quite interesting that is the area that causes you to grow to immense size.

RECORDED HEIGHTS:
https://preview.redd.it/dshefi7cvh161.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2c018c375ebe1842b2f950fa8bf0cffcb8d2bbe
This is a wiki list, containing every recorded person who was above 7 Feet, with the max confirmed case to reach (8 ft 11.1 in) , and unconfirmed (11 ft 6 in).
These cases are unique from person to person but is to show the height that humans can reach in our not so distant past, so click below to explore the amazing cases we do have available to research. https://wikivisually.com/wiki/List_of_tallest_people

CYCLOPEAN MASONRY:
https://preview.redd.it/gg5uufm5rh161.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=0538277af59bc7e0d95a36713c56f0595279a195
'Cyclopean masonry is a type of stonework…built with massive…boulders, roughly fitted together with minimal clearance between adjacent stones and no use of mortar… The term comes from the belief of classical Greeks that only the mythical Cyclopes had the strength to move the enormous boulders…' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclopean_masonry#:~:text=Cyclopean%20masonry%20is%20a%20type,or%20no%20use%20of%20mortar.

EGYPT: I was pretty surprised seeing these photos which is what initially got me interested in this subject and finding all their sources proved more difficult than one would think.
Unknown Source: This came up with 1,875 results when I reverse image search, attempting to find the origin of this photo and every single website I click was shutdown, no idea why but I have posted my tineye results if you want to try :)
Theres a couple things off in this, first off they are grabbing birds as if they can reach the sky, second you can see another person underneath.
https://preview.redd.it/d0b1fxqiyh161.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f2c244d416b83ed0718fc3616e5a3d6aadd90d8
https://tineye.com/search/655ed41dc7a2aef78aff611fa8c767a9c09cae16?sort=score&order=desc&page=1
Egypt Thebes, wall painting of winnowing in the tomb of Menna, tomb no 69, circa 1422-1411 BC
https://preview.redd.it/akaxn2pqxh161.png?width=331&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2b1f28fc4f5ed1eac137fc1c36dcb588366e6df
http://www.soniahalliday.com/category-view3.php?pri=EG14A-7-17.jpg

The Decorated Areas Belonging to Ptahhotep
Washing a giant
https://osirisnet.net/mastabas/akhethtp_ptahhtp/e_akht_ptah_03.htm
The Tomb of Rekhmire
https://preview.redd.it/lm7n3eic0i161.jpg?width=448&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fcd020ef34e55991819b25bb02c7b2e2512e1b00
http://www.ancient-egypt.info/2013/09/the-tomb-of-rekhmire.html Again there are almost hundreds of these scattered and I cant spend all day on this topic :) STORIES:
https://preview.redd.it/e8evl5v4vh161.png?width=440&format=png&auto=webp&s=469c91cc70e92dd596b3e0ec0f5e1c62e8d99a77
Throughout history we have had too much claims of giants to just ignore, so lets at least look at the stories of the past.
David & Goliath: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goliath
Patagonian Giants: http://atlanteangardens.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-patagonian-giants.html?spref=pi
Red Haired Giants: https://www.ancient-origins.net/myths-legends-americas/lovelock-cave-tale-giants-or-giant-tale-fiction-003060
StoneHenge: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_about_Stonehenge
I could go on all day so here is a good collection that will tell more "stories" and folk tales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_giants_in_mythology_and_folklore https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/gigantes/WEurope3.html
QUOTES (Giants & Cyclopes): "The eyes of that species of extinct giants, whose bones fill the mounds of America, have gazed on Niagara, as ours do now. Contemporary with the whole race of men, and older than the first man, Niagara is strong, and fresh to-day as ten thousand years ago."
— Abraham Lincoln, Mounds Of America (1848)

“For many generations…they obeyed the laws and loved the divine to which they were akin…they reckoned that qualities of character were far more important than their present prosperity. So they bore the burden of their wealth and possessions lightly, and did not let their high standard of living intoxicate them or make them lose their self-control…
But when the divine element in them became weakened…and their human traits became predominant, they ceased to be able to carry their prosperity with moderation.”
―Plato, Timaeus

“A giant helps Merlin build Stonehenge. From a manuscript of the Roman de Brut [1100s] by Wace in the British Library (Egerton 3028). This is the oldest known depiction of Stonehenge.”
―Wikipedia

In Rouen, in 1509, in digging in the ditches near the Dominicans, they found a stone tomb, containing a skeleton whose skull held a bushel of corn, and whose shin bone reached up to the girdle of the tallest man there, being about four feet long; and, consequently, the body must have been seventeen or eighteen feet high. Upon the tomb was a plate of copper, whereon was engraved, ‘In this tomb lies the noble and puissant lord, the Chevalier Ricon De Vallemont, and his bones.’
— John Platts, Encyclopedia of Natural and Artificial Wonders and Curiosities, 1876

“In 1829, when the hotel was built in Chesterville, a mound nearby was made to furnish the material for the brick. In digging it away, a large human skeleton was found, but no measurements were made. It is related that the jaw-bone was found to fit easily over that of a citizen of the village, who was remarkable for his large jaw. The local physicians examined the cranium and found it proportionately large, with more teeth than the white race of today. The skeleton was taken to Mansfield, and has been lost sight of entirely.”
—History of Morrow County and Ohio, 1880

“In Seneca township (Noble County, Ohio) was opened, in 1872, one of numerous Indian mounds that abound in the neighborhood. This particular one was locally known as the “Bates” mound. Upon being dug into it was found to contain…remains of three skeletons, whose size would indicate they measured in life at least eight feet in height. The remarkable feature of these remains was they had double teeth in front as well as in back of the mouth and in both upper and lower jaws. Upon exposure to the atmosphere the skeletons soon crumbled back to mother earth.”
—Howe’s Historical Collections of Ohio, Vol. II, Part 1 (1907)

“Ages before the Romans existed, the fair land of Italy was inhabited by nations who have left indestructible monuments as the only records of their history. Those wonderful cities of early Italy which have been termed Cyclopean, are thickly scattered throughout certain districts, and are often perched like eagles’ nests, on the very crests of mountains, at such an elevation as to strike amazement into the traveler who now visits them, and to bewilder him with speculations as to the state of society which could have driven men to such scarcely accessible spots for habitation, and to entrench themselves therein with such stupendous fortifications.”
―Louisa Caroline Tuthill, History of Architecture, 1848

“In all the existing remains of Cyclopean architecture…there is a singular resemblance for which it is difficult to account. It has been suggested that the Cyclopeans were a kind of Freemasons employed to construct lighthouses, citadels, &c., who handed down their mysterious art from generation to generation; and that the stupendous nature of their edifices led to the fables with which the name is associated.”
―Charles Boileau Elliott, Travels in the three great empires of Austria, Russia, and Turkey, Volume 2 (1838)

“He who has not seen the so-called Cyclopean cities of Latium…those marvels of early art, which overpower the mind with their grandeur, bewilder it with amazement, or excite it to active speculations as to their antiquity, the race which erected them, and the state of society which demanded fortifications so stupendous on sites so inaccessible as they in general occupy; — he who has not beheld those sublime trophies of early Italian civilization — the bastion and round tower of Norba — the gates of Segni and Arpino — the citadel of Alatri — the many terraces of Cora — the covered way of Praeneste, and the colossal works of the same masonry in the mountains of Latium, Sabina, and Samnium, will be astonished at the first view of the walls of Cosa.

Nay, he who is no stranger to this style of masonry, will be surprised to see it on this spot, so remote from the district which seems its peculiar locality. He will behold in these walls immense blocks of stone, irregular polygons in form, not bound together with cement, yet fitted with so admirable nicety, that the joints are mere lines, into which he might often in vain attempt to insert a penknife: the surface smooth as a billiard-table; and the whole resembling, at a little distance, a freshly plastered wall, scratched over with strange diagrams.”
―George Dennis, The Cities and Cemeteries of Etruria, London, 1848

“…the Cyclopes…are supposed to have built all the so-called “Cyclopean” works whose erection necessitated several regiments of Giants…
They are called “Builders,” and Occultism calls them the Initiators, who…thus laid the foundation stone of true Masonry.”
―H.P. Blavatsky, The Secret Doctrine

MARKINGS:
https://preview.redd.it/dofuujlr0i161.jpg?width=403&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e91683e5767b4d1d48a5abd6d2907611b6c18261
All over the world in random regions there have been found imprints left behind that seems to resemble a giant foot, ill leave that for you to decide, heres an organized list of all the giant feet around the world :') https://helenastales.weebly.com/blogue/traces-of-giants-discovered-worldwide ARTIFACTS:
https://preview.redd.it/z02cdt4m2i161.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41ab37b3c8c8e73c52a1f0fe3dbb09b6503d90f4
You say well then where is all the armor and tools! We have found them but just ignore it. This is only a few examples as Im sure there have been many more that could go into this area
Giant Frying Pan https://www.cryptoanthropologist.com/2016/04/giant-frying-pan-discovered-in-central-java.html
2500 + 60 pound sledge hammer with 9 foot handles https://greaterancestors.com/who-could-have-weilded-a-64lb-hamme
Giant Crown in Père Crespi Collection http://messagesdelanature.ek.la/la-grotte-de-los-tayos-p1382684
Giant Books: https://www.messynessychic.com/2014/07/09/just-some-300-year-old-giant-books/
Giant Minoan Axes https://www.ancientpages.com/2017/11/27/giant-ancient-minoan-axes-used-unknown-purposes/
Giant Sword: https://www.ancient-origins.net/artifacts-ancient-technology/norimitsu-odachi-who-could-have-possibly-wielded-enormous-15th-century-021428
EVENTS:
The Inauguration of the Place Royale in 1612
Lost original link, here is default photo
https://preview.redd.it/xxpqijg84i161.png?width=1434&format=png&auto=webp&s=a36dd6b65650dea651bf010ab6899345417bcacb
https://bibliotheque-numerique.inha.fcollection/item/25620-dessin-des-pompes-et-magnificences-du-carrousel-fait-en-la-place-royale-a-paris-le-5-6-7-d-avril-1612?offset=57
https://preview.redd.it/2v1vzfuh4i161.jpg?width=733&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95708835f8472f27f5f046ebce05e4ed08d69296
For sceptics, that do not know, this is Obscura Camera photos, go ahead and look that up, its tracing down events live using the reflection of light. I went ahead and found where one of these photos was, inside of some book but it was seen from the window of "Claude Chastillion" who engraved the event.
Place Des Victoires

https://preview.redd.it/1ebjosfm5i161.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=9de12ba510b61bb731d5d6318af9e7e0bc3549cd
I just want to link this plaza before I show the next pictures, its in Paris known as ""place des victoires", this is a statue where "King Louis XIV" once stood,


https://bibliotheque-numerique.inha.fcollection/item/26167-la-representation-de-la-marche-et-ceremonies-faites-le-26-mars-pour-l-elevation-de-la-statue-du-roi-de-france-louis-xiv-que-m-le-mareschal-duc-de-la-feuillade-a-fait-eriger-en-la-place-des-victoires-a-paris?offset=7
https://bibliotheque-numerique.inha.fcollection/item/26168-place-des-victoires-publication-de-la-paix-signee-a-aix-la-chapelle-le-19-et-20-novembre-1748

https://www.akg-images.de/archive/-2UMDHURNIBAC.html
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.carnavalet.paris.fr%2Ffr%2Fcollections%2Fla-place-des-victoires " After Colbert's death in 1683, his rival Louvois succeeded him as building superintendent. Two major town planning operations were decided under his ministry: Place des Victoires and Place des Conquêtes or Place Louis-le-Grand, our Place Vendôme. In the center of the first, imagined by Marshal de La Feuillade and designed by Hardouin-Mansart, stood a full-length statue of Louis XIV. The plinth was decorated with figures of captives in bronze representing the powers vanquished by the king and bore a Latin dedication which has remained famous: VIRO IMMORTALI (“To the immortal man”). The square was decorated with lanterns where perpetual fires were to burn. This device caused talk throughout Europe: people laughed at the new paganism instituted in honor of the monarch;they were scandalized by the humiliating representation of the captive powers. In March 1686 the solemn dedication of the statue took place, which was accompanied by unprecedented ceremonies: parade of the regiment of French guards, gathering of the Châtelet and the corps de Ville in the square, solemn unveiling of the statue in the presence of the royal family led by the bottlenose dolphin. “We have never seen, admires Sourches, a crowd like that which occupied all the streets which arrived at the place, and the bourgeois of Paris were unleashed to see a spectacle which lasted only a moment. The only thing missing was the main interested party, Louis XIV, whose health kept him at Versailles. "
This is the explanation for that event, what is up with the giants? I don't believe those were apart of the statue. I connected this to the Pantgonian Giants because of this quote from a book:
“The captain-general sent one of our men to the giant so that he might perform the same actions as a sign of peace. Having done that, the man led the giant to an islet where the captain-general was waiting; When the giant was in the captain-general’s and our presence he marveled greatly and made signs with one finger raised upward, believing we had come from the sky. He was so tall that we reached only to his waist, and he was well proportioned.” According to the writings of Pigafetta, Magellan and crew attempted to return to Italy with two of the giants they had encountered, though they were unable to survive the long trip back across the Atlantic."
Pantgonian Giants Sighting = 1602 Giants in Chains Event = 1683
Possibly the French knew of these Giants for along time? Speculation. NEWS ARTICLES: So so so many articles surrounding the findings of giant bones, I would love to find these sources but.. its a newspaper article and I just am not sure I am ready for that level of digging, but heres some pictures :D

https://preview.redd.it/4lmi1f4y1i161.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=479aa38e60773e5354d5cdb173d3d2a77c7d4885
https://preview.redd.it/hiuceyvu1i161.jpg?width=1118&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c94bb400568ef633600328bf195df247be0ded56

https://preview.redd.it/ijat60ot1i161.jpg?width=418&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=477fbb6dfa1ed07280ce231bf2d9bc7aff3c054c
https://preview.redd.it/m89a53at1i161.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a0ea2056cb80691fe63afed423b4e502b817641

THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION https://www.si.edu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithsonian_Institution
Why in the HECK is this the first your hearing of this? Well you should be told about the Smithsonian Institution, very big people in the archaeological world and are involved in almost any major discovery.
Legal Obligations: "However, the U.S. Attorney General has concluded that the Smithsonian is so "closely connected" to the federal government that it shares the immunity of the United States from state and local regulation. In accordance with this doctrine, local zoning regulations, ABC licensing provisions, sales and use taxes, and real estate taxes are not applicable to the Smithsonian absent a specific federal statute. (There are several instances in which Congress has required federal entities to comply with state and local laws, so questions about the applicability of specific state and local laws to the Smithsonian should be directed to the Office of General Counsel.)
Courts have also held that the Smithsonian enjoys the immunity of the United States from lawsuits, unless such suits are authorized by Congress under specific statutes, such as the Federal Torts Claim Act (torts), the U.S. Copyright Act (copyright infringement), the Tucker Act (contracts), and Title VII the Civil Rights Act (discrimination)."
https://www.si.edu/ogc/legalhistory
Supreme Court Case in 2018: " Although the Smithsonian entity status question before the Court remains unanswered, providence had guided Petitioner to discover a parallel case, already decided by this Court. God is particularly interested in last wills and testaments, and the fulfillment offiduciary duty by trustees as established throughout the Old and New Testaments, which is the basis for the common law oftrusts, as expressed in the Magna Charta from the year 1215 " " The Smithsonian Institution was established in 1846, Girard College in 1848 so even their similar historical origins are ofinterest when considering their entity status. Girard was one of the richest men in America, Smithson a very wealthy man from the United Kingdom. The trustees were the United States/Congress/Board ofRegents in Smithson’s case and the State of Pennsylvania/Pennsylvania legislature/Board ofDirectors OfCity Trusts in Girard’s case. "

https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-6548/121881/20191112122654653_20191112-122112-95748849-00003630.pdf
Sued over Exhibit: https://www.nytimes.com/1978/04/12/archives/smithsonian-is-sued-over-evolution-exhibit.html
Battle over Indian Remains: https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2016/05/05/476631934/a-long-complicated-battle-over-9-000-year-old-bones-is-finally-over
Accused of Destroying Giant Bones: https://www.gaia.com/article/this-conspiracy-claims-the-smithsonian-destroys-giant-skeletons
Biological Warefare?: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP90-00965R000302600001-3.pdf
Mound Builders: In another case referring to.. another race, not giants. Something called the "Mound Builders" is a perfect book to read explaining everything IMO.
'The Indian guide points out these mounds to the student of history with a feeling of awe ; he says he knows nothing of them; his fathers have told him that the builders of the mounds were of a different race from them... it must be said moreover that a perusal of the works written about the mounds, especially of the very large contributions to the subject found in the Smithsonian Institution publications, leaves the mind of the reader in a state of thorough confusion and un- certainty.' https://library.si.edu/digital-library/book/moundbuilders00bryc

Extra Article: https://www.micahhanks.com/conspiracy-2/big-buried-secrets-giant-skeletons-and-the-smithsonian/

END CONCLUSION: This is just my list of sources meant for others to speculate. Again I am not accusing anyone of doing any wrong deeds, thanks for reading.
Join our Discord for more Archives: https://discord.gg/ZHkhJ3fwRw
submitted by sebastianxce to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.11.24 04:41 Raulcs19 Perdí mi cuenta 3 o 4 veces

Tengo un serio problema contaré todo la historia de una llevo como desde el 2017 desde que vi este juego y entre y lo jugó y alcabo de un mes o algo haci me aburri y lo borre creí haberlo a guardado en mi cuenta la de google pero al parecer no me acuerdo bien si fue que el juego quito lo de la cuenta de google y solo se puede con Ateam ID pues bueno volví a jugar y esta vez si lo aguarde bien con copia de seguridad y todo volví a dejar de jugar porque cambie de teléfono y alcabo de un tiempo me volvió a dar ganas de jugar y volví a perder la cuenta lo guarde con Facebook y google y le puse un correo y aún haci nada entonces no volví a jugar y hoy quise jugar y me enoja a volver a jugar lo peor es que me dice que si he jugado con esas cuenta en valkyrie pero no tengo datos y en la google play tengo logros del 2017 y el 2019 fueron las veces que mas alte llegué alguien tiene ayuda y perdón es mucho texto :'c pero es que a nadie le paso entonces tuve que contar lo que me pasó
submitted by Raulcs19 to valkyrie_en [link] [comments]


2020.11.23 08:02 -jz- "Rebelión en la Granja" ("Animal Farm") por Orwell -- audiolibro y PDF

Hola a todos,
Me encanta este audio libro, es genial. La voz del lector es muy expresiva, y también hace las voces de los animales. Lo encontré muy entretenido. También está disponible en Spotify con capítulos cortos.
Puedes encontrar el texto en formato PDF en línea (búsqueda en Google). Hay muchas versiones diferentes, cada una con pequeñas diferencias según el español del país (España, Latinoamérica, etc.), pero no creo que sea un gran obstáculo para disfrutar de la grabación. He incluido lo que usé, es bilingüe con el text en dos columnas (inglés y español), que es una gran ayuda.
Espero que os guste! jz
Hi all,
I love this audio book, it's great. The reader's voice is very expressive, and it also does the voices of the animals. I found it very entertaining. It is also available on Spotify with short chapters.
You can find the text in PDF format online (Google search). There are many different versions, each with small differences according to the Spanish of the country (Spain, Latin America, etc.), but I don't think it's a big obstacle to enjoy the recording. I have included what I used, it is bilingual with the text in two columns (English and Spanish), which is a great help.
I hope you like it! jz
submitted by -jz- to Spanish [link] [comments]


2020.11.13 10:36 melisaxinyue 3 Web Scraping Aplicaciones para Ganar Dinero

¿Puedes creer que el 70% del tráfico de Internet fue creado por arañas *? ¡Es sorprendentemente cierto! Hay muchas arañas, web crawlers o buscadores de robots ocupados con sus trabajos en Internet. Simulan el comportamiento humano, recorren sitios web, hacen clic botones, comprobación de datos y recuperación de información.

Con tanto tráfico generado, deben haber logrado algo magnífico. Algunos de ellos pueden sonarle familiares, como el monitoreo de precios en negocios de comercio electrónico, el monitoreo de redes sociales en relaciones públicas o la adquisición de datos de investigación para estudios académicos. Aquí, nos gustaría profundizar en las 3 aplicaciones de raspado web que rara vez se conocen pero que son sorprendentemente rentables.
1. Transportation
Las plataformas Budget Airline son muy populares entre los web scrapers debido a la promoción impredecible de boletos baratos.
La intención original de Airline’s es ofrecer boletos baratos al azar para atraer turistas*, pero los revendedores encontraron una manera de obtener ganancias de esto. Los geek scalper usan web crawlers para actualizar continuamente el sitio web de la aerolínea. Una vez que haya un boleto barato disponible, el crawler lo reservará boletos.

AirAsia, por ejemplo, solo mantiene la reserva durante una hora y si el pago no se realiza para entonces, el boleto se envía de vuelta al grupo de boletos y está listo para vender. Los revendedores volverán a comprar el boleto en el milisegundo después de que el boleto regrese a la piscina, y así sucesivamente. Solo hasta que solicite el boleto a un revendedor, los revendedores utilizarán el programa para abandonar el boleto en el sistema AirAsia y en 0.00001 segundos después, lo reservarán con su nombre.
No me parece un trabajo fácil. Tal vez la comisión de agencia intermedia es bastante justa.
2. E-Commerce
Debe haber muchos sitios de comparación de precios y Sitio web de devolución de efectivo en los favoritos de un comprador inteligente. No importa cuáles sean sus nombres, "plataformas de comparación de precios", "sitio web agregado de comercio electrónico" o "sitios web de cupones", las ideas son las mismas: ganar dinero ahorrando su dinero.

Scraping los precios y las imágenes de los websites de comercio electrónico y los muestran en sus propios sitios web.
Los magnates del comercio electrónico como Amazon saben que es difícil revertir las tendencias del código abierto *. Entonces comienzan un negocio para vender su API con una larga lista de precios. ¡Parece que los sitios web de comparación de precios necesitan hacer todos los trabajos, escribir códigos para scrape, proporcionar un canal de ventas y pagar las facturas!

No tan rapido. Déjame decirte cómo estas plataformas de comercio electrónico agregadas obtienen sus ganancias:


En resumen, lo están haciendo bastante bien.
3. Seguridad social
Para dos compañías que aceptan compartir bases de datos a través de API, aún podrían necesitar el raspado web para convertir los datos de las páginas web en informes de datos estructurales.
Tomemos los tres grandes como ejemplo. Equifax, Experian y TransUnion, que poseen los archivos de crédito de 170 millones de adultos estadounidenses y venden más de 600 millones de informes de crédito cada año, generando más de $ 10 mil millones en ingresos*.

"En realidad, es un modelo de negocio bastante simple. Recopilan la mayor cantidad de información sobre usted de los prestamistas, la agregan y se la devuelven", dijo Brett Horn, analista de la industria de Morningstar *.
Reciben sus datos de comportamiento personal de sus bancos, empleadores, tribunales locales, centros comerciales e incluso una estación de servicio. Con tantos informes para analizar, el web-scraping es una gran ayuda para organizar los datos. Pueden convertir las páginas web en informes de datos estructurales.
Hay muchas formas de scrape desde los sitios web. Si desea scrape datos a escala de muchos sitios web, una herramienta de raspado web es útil. Aquí hay una lista de las 10 mejores herramientas de web scraping como preferencia.
El web scraping es una forma increíble de recopilar datos para su negocio. Si está buscando un servicio de raspado web confiable para raspar datos de la web, puede intentar iniciarlo con Octoparse.
Ref:
*http://dopro.io/web-spider-function.html
*https://www.eyefortravel.com/mobile-and-technology/scraping-single-biggest-threat-travel-industry
*https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/travel-leisure/article/2168635/five-tips-using-bookingcom-skyscanner-expedia-and-other
*https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/it-costs-consumers-4-point-1-billion-to-freeze-credit-reports.html
*https://thenextweb.com/dd/2017/02/15/why-enterprises-should-embrace-open-source/
*https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2017/10/06/equifax-makes-money-knowing-lot-you/738824001/
*https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/it-costs-consumers-4-point-1-billion-to-freeze-credit-reports.html
submitted by melisaxinyue to u/melisaxinyue [link] [comments]


2020.11.11 03:58 Uicnejfop Urna Eletrônica

Olá. Assistam ao vídeo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs) para podermos discutir.
Depois vão ao site do TSE, e leiam sobre a segurança da urna: https://www.tse.jus.beleicoes/urna-eletronica/seguranca-da-urna
Alguns pontos chamam atenção:
1- Na parte de criptografia (/criptografia), transcrevo: " O Tribunal Superior Eleitoral usa algoritmos proprietários de cifração simétrica e assimétrica, de conhecimento exclusivo do TSE."
Segurança por obscuridade não é boa prática (http://www.lsi.usp.b~penasio/trabalhos/PSI5006-3286381-5223770-3-V4.pdf, https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seguran%C3%A7a_por_obscurantismo).
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2- Código Fonte (/apresentacao-dos-codigos-fonte): aberto somente à OAB, partidos políticos e Ministério Público, somente 180 dias antes da eleição, em uma cerimônia, em local restrito: TSE, em Brasília.
Quase todas as maiores empresas de tecnologia incentivam de forma pública, e remuneram quem reporte falhas de segurança em seus softwares. (https://www.facebook.com/whitehat, https://www.google.com/about/appsecurity/reward-program/,
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/msrc/bounty, por exemplo).
São empresas gigantes, com os maiores cérebros da área, e mesmo assim, todos os meses são descobertas e reportadas falhas de segurança em virtualmente todos os seus sistemas (Chrome, Android, Windows, Edge...). Exemplos recentes de 2 brasileiros que ganharam dezenas de milhares de dólares recentemente: https://www.tecmundo.com.bseguranca/150800-hacker-brasileiro-encontra-falha-facebook-ganha-us-10-mil.htm,
https://medium.com/@alonnsoandres/25k-instagram-almost-xss-filter-link-facebook-bug-bounty-798b10c13b83).
Existem inclusive plataformas especializadas em oferecer, para as empresas, espaços de testes de segurança de seus produtos. Qualquer um pode se cadastrar e começar a ganhar dinheiro descobrindo falhas (https://www.hackerone.com/).
Novamente, vemos no TSE uma tendência a optar pela segurança por obscuridade.
Por que não abrir o código fonte para todo cidadão brasileiro e profissionais de segurança analisarem pelo tempo que quiserem sem ter que ir até Brasília? Quanto mais pessoas e especialistas analisarem, maior a chance de se descobrirem novas falhas. Por que também não oferecer recompensa financeira para incentivar ainda mais como é prática na indústria?
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3- Sistema Operacional (/modelos-de-urna-eletronica): As duas primeiras versões utilizavam o VirtuOS, similar ao MS-DOS e desenvolvido por uma empresa brasileira chamada Microbase.
Segue comentário do estudo feito pela UNICAMP em 2002 sobre as urnas, disponível no site do TSE (Item 4.6, página 30: https://www.tse.jus.beleicoes/urna-eletronica/seguranca-da-urna/relatorio-da-unicamp-urnas-eletronicas):
"O fato da UE não se basear integralmente em um sistema operacional idêntico a um disponível no mercado pode gerar dúvidas quanto à segurança e não é uma prática recomendável."
Novamente, obscuridade. Mas tudo bem, o sistema já mudou.
Os modelos UE2002, UE2004 e UE2006, rodavam Windows CE. Feito pela Microsoft, para sistemas embarcados.
Notem que a Microsoft só passou a liberar todo o código fonte do sistema em 2006, a partir da versão do Windows CE 2006 (https://www.infoworld.com/article/2634197/win-ce-6-0-ships-with-source-code.html).
Ou seja, as urnas de 2002 e 2004 utilizavam sistema operacional de código parcialmente fechado.
Qual o problema do código fechado? Não consegue-se ver como o programa realmente funciona. Confiamos na palavra do fornecedor. Nesse caso, a Microsoft.
Sabe-se da estreita, e muitas vezes não voluntária, mas real, relação das empresas de tecnologia dos EUA com sua Agência de Segurança Nacional (NSA).
O governo americano força as empresas a compartilharem informações privadas de seus usuários através de mandatos judiciais que proíbem o aviso a seus clientes da existência de tais mandatos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warrant_canary).
A NSA trabalha ativamente para inserir falhas nos protocolos de criptografia adotados pela indústria (https://www.wired.com/2013/09/nsa-backdoo), e possui histórico especial com a Microsoft (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSAKEY,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/11/microsoft-nsa-collaboration-user-data).
Mas tudo bem, já passou. Agora as urnas provavelmente utilizam Linux (a última informação no site do TSE refere-se ao modelo de 2008, mas creio que continue até hoje).
É o menos pior, mas também precisa ser atualizado constantemente pois novas falhas são sempre descobertas e corrigidas ("https://resources.whitesourcesoftware.com/blog-whitesource/top-10-linux-kernel-vulnerabilities").
E a NSA não necessariamente está totalmente de fora também (https://www.quora.com/Does-the-NSA-have-a-backdoor-to-Linux).
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4- Teste público de segurança (/teste-publico-de-seguranca-2019):
Mais uma vez, em Brasília, limitado à 25 participantes, inscrição extremamente burocrática, muitas etapas proibidas de serem auditadas:
( "Não serão objetos do TPS os seguintes sistemas, ambientes, procedimentos e elementos abaixo relacionados: I - identificação e verificação biométrica do eleitor; II - preparação e infraestrutura para o Kit JE Connect; III - processamento dos arquivos de urna (fase posterior às fases de transmissão e de recebimento dos arquivos gerados pela urna eletrônica após o encerramento da votação na seção..."
Para ver todos os itens ler a Pág. 2, § 2º : https://www.justicaeleitoral.jus.btps/arquivos/tps-edital-testes-seguranca-2019-atualizado-25-9-2019.pdf).
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5- Nota-se a ausência de ênfase no site do TSE sobre o processo de transmissão dos votos, e a segurança do sistema central de apuração.
Na auditoria da UNICAMP realizada em 2002, no item 4.15, há alguns detalhes.(https://www.justicaeleitoral.jus.barquivos/relatorio-final-de-avaliacao-do-sistema-informatizado-das-eleicoes/rybena_pdf?file=https://www.justicaeleitoral.jus.barquivos/relatorio-final-de-avaliacao-do-sistema-informatizado-das-eleicoes/at_download/file).
Apesar da transmissão ocorrer por rede privada, isolada da Internet, a encriptação dos dados é necessária para o caso de haver alguma interceptação (https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ataque_man-in-the-middle).
Pelo arquivo da UNICAMP acima, a encriptação PGP é realizada antes da transmissão.
Porém a implementação específica é omitida. E isso é extremamente importante, pois mesmo que os protocolos criptográficos sejam matematicamente seguros, é comum que sua implementação em software seja defeituosa e permita ataques (Exemplo de implementação errada em clientes de email Apple Mail, Outlook e Thunderbird : https://www.wired.co.uk/article/efail-pgp-vulnerability-outlook-thunderbird-smime).
Novamente, o eleitor no escuro.
Essa seria a etapa mais crítica. Adulterar a transmissão ou o computador central de apuração possibilitaria alterar os votos do país todo, ou de grandes regiões, com somente um ataque.
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Comentários adicionais
1- Impossibilidade de Recontagem:
Importante destacar que todo sistema eleitoral tem falhas.
As eleições com voto exclusivo em papel frequentemente são questionadas, e recontagens efetuadas, com resultados diferentes dos iniciais.
A deficiência de um sistema puramente eletrônico é que se houver fraude, seria muito difícil de ser detectado.
Eleições em papel exigem pessoas reais contando, com observadores presentes. Adulterações, surgimento de novos pacotes de votos, pacotes jogados no lixo, tudo é real, palpável. Pode ser filmado, detectado.
A fraude eletrônica não. É virtual. Quem vê? Talvez algum protocolo de assinatura digital detecte alterações nos dados.
Talvez.
E se os responsáveis pelas assinaturas estiverem envolvidos na fraude?
É plausível pensar que um atacante sofisticado a ponto de realizar adulteração eletrônica consiga esconder muito bem seus rastros virtuais.
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2- Capacidades ofensivas cibernéticas agora são parte oficial das forças militares de diversos países.
E o Brasil ainda está muito atrás. Sim, temos alguns centros de ponta em computação e tecnologia de informação. Mas nosso orçamento militar, prioridade governamental e pessoal qualificado para a área de cibersegurança ainda é muito limitado.
Ataque recente há alguns dias:
https://tecnoblog.net/381394/stj-teria-sido-vitima-de-ransomware-ministerio-da-saude-sofre-ataque/

EUA, China, Rússia, e Israel, também Irã e Coreia do Norte investem pesado nessa área.
Alguns exemplos mais famosos recentes: https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet#:~:text=Stuxnet%20%C3%A9%20um%20worm%20de,bielorrussa%20desenvolvedora%20de%20antiv%C3%ADrus%20VirusBlokAda.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_cyberattacks_on_Ukraine#:~:text=A%20series%20of%20powerful%20cyberattacks,ministries%2C%20newspapers%20and%20electricity%20firms.&text=ESET%20estimated%20on%2028%20June,hardest%20hit%20with%20about%209%25.
É jogo de gente grandíssima. Queremos deixar a base de nossa democracia vulnerável à ação de grandes potências? Seja esquerda ou direita, todos concordamos que o país deve ser soberano.
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3- Ah, mas nossa apuração é mais rápida.
Vale o risco? Qual a pressa? Melhor saber o resultado em horas com possibilidade de fraude, ou em alguns dias, com mais segurança?
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4- Ah, mas exportamos esse sistema para vários países, somos exemplo de tecnologia para o mundo!
Sim, há muito trabalho de profissionais extremamente capacitados e dos centros de pesquisa brasileiros, que por anos e anos tentam honestamente aprimorar o processo de voto eletrônico no Brasil.
Eles tem todo o mérito, e sim, entendem muito do que fazem.
Alguns países usaram nossas urnas segundo o site do TSE (https://www.tse.jus.beleicoes/urna-eletronica/visao-externa-do-sistema-eleitoral-brasileiro):
- Argentina
- Equador
- México
- Paraguai
- República Dominicana
Entretanto, países extremamente desenvolvidos e com indústria de computação e telecomunicações muito mais avançadas que a nossa, ainda optam pelo voto em papel. Por que?
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5- Quais países desenvolvidos não usam voto eletrônico?
Segundo a Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_voting_by_country):
- Canadá
- Bélgica
- Finlândia
- Alemanha
- França
- Irlanda
- Noruega
- Espanha
- Inglaterra
- EUA (parcial, mais sobre ele no texto abaixo)
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6- Os EUA foram o berço da computação e Internet mundiais. Ainda hoje as maiores empresas de TI são de lá. Qual a opinião deles sobre voto eletrônico, existe algum estudo?
Sim!
A Academia Nacional de Ciência Engenharia e Medicina dos EUA ficou 2 anos estudando o tema, desde 2016, quando houve suspeita de interferência russa nas eleições americanas.
Professores das melhores universidades e empresas de computação do mundo (MIT, Princeton, Stanford, Microsoft) então publicaram, em 2018, suas conclusões no texto "Securing the Vote - Protecting American Democracy", disponível de graça para leitura em online ou '.pdf' (menu à direita)(https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25120/securing-the-vote-protecting-american-democracy).
A conclusão foi que o voto eletrônico é fundamentalmente inseguro, só devendo ser utilizado se houver outro meio de auditoria em conjunto (voto em papel):
Pág 80.
"4.11 - Elections should be conducted with human-readable paper ballots...
Recounts and audits should be conducted by human inspection of the human-readable portion of the paper ballots.
Voting machines that do not provide the capacity for independent auditing (e.g., machines that do not produce a voter-verifiable paper audit trail) should be removed from service as soon as possible"
Pág 93.
" There is no realistic mechanism to fully secure vote casting and tabulation computer systems from cyber threats... Even if best practices are applied, systems will not be completely secure. Foreign state–sponsored attacks present a challenge for even the most responsible and well-resourced jurisdictions.... Appropriate audits can be used to enable trust in the accuracy of election outcomes even if the integrity of software, hardware, personnel, or other aspects of the system on which an election is run were to be questioned. Better cybersecurity is not a substitute for effective auditing."
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Resumo Português:
[4.11 Eleições deve ser feitas em papel.
Recontagens devem ser feitas por humanos olhando os votos em papel.
Máquinas de voto que não imprimam papel para auditoria devem ser descartadas o mais rápido possível
Pág 93.
Não há como proteger as máquinas ou sistemas de votação de ataques cibernéticos.
Mesmo com as melhores práticas de segurança, ataques de potências estrangeiras podem afetar os mais organizados e melhores mantidos sistemas.
Entretanto, se houver auditoria, os resultados podem ser confiados, mesmo que haja vulnerabilidades presentes.
Mas lembrando, cibersegurança não substitui auditoria!]
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A frase final é importante. Nada substitui a possibilidade de auditoria (recontagem).
Nosso sistema é essencialmente falho nesse aspecto.
A parte seguinte sobre votação pela Internet também vale a pena ser lida.
(obs: os problemas na eleição atual deve-se ao voto à distância (correio) e algumas máquinas em alguns locais (para saber mais pesquise em duckduckgo.com), e em nada desvalorizam o excelente trabalho da comissão citada acima)
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Mais Importante
O voto eletrônico é elitista e antidemocrático. E não sou eu falando.
Uma decisão da Suprema Corte alemã entendeu que, como as eleições são a base do processo democrático, qualquer cidadão tem o direito de entender perfeitamente como o sistema funciona e participar da recontagem ou inspeção eleitoral.
Entre no site do TSE e tente entender como funcionam todas as etapas de segurança do voto eletrônico.
Sabe o que é uma assinatura digital? Chave pública e Chave privada? Troca de chaves de Diffie Hellman?
Sabe só o conceito ou sabe os detalhes de implementação? Conhece a matemática pesada que embasa os protocolos de criptografia?
" - Ah! Mas eu uso sistemas bancários eletrônicos e ando de carro todos os dias sem saber todos os detalhes de como eles funcionam. Também tomo medicações que não faço ideia como são fabricadas ou agem nas moléculas das células do meu corpo. Na sociedade especializada é assim. Não dá pra saber tudo. Cada um faz o seu e confia no restante das pessoas para fazerem o delas bem feito."
Sim! O raciocínio está correto. Mas não para o voto!
Se os carros falharem e começarem a causar acidentes, a fabricante será processada e condenada.
A mesma coisa para a medicação, ou o banco.
Condenada por quem? Pelo Estado!
O Estado tem o monopólio da força e da justiça na sociedade.
E se o Estado se tornar abusivo, injusto? Corrupto? E se o executivo passar a controlar o judiciário para ficar impune? A única saída (pacífica) são as eleições.
Por isso é essencial que o processo eleitoral seja transparente e popular.
Sim, popular. Basal. Simples. O mais simples possível.
Qualquer João ou Maria que estiverem passando ali na esquina devem ser capazes de participar da contagem de votos e inspeção eleitoral, se desejarem.
Com a complexidade da votação eletrônica, nem graduados em engenharia da computação entendem todo o sistema, a não ser que façam uma especialização na área e estudem profundamente segurança de sistemas embarcados, segurança de redes, e criptografia.
Mesmo assim, com a falta de transparência do TSE, não conseguiria entender tudo.
A realidade fria é que a votação eletrônica é um tipo de elitismo tecnológico.
Poucos entendem o processo. E com o conhecimento, vem o poder. Ou seja, poucos tem o poder.
Imagine um governo eleito pelo povo, que lentamente se torne ditatorial, sem objetivo de sair.
Além de aparelhar as forças militares com seus amigos, a primeira coisa que fará é aparelhar o TSE e sua equipe de técnicos e programadores.
A partir daí, é só alegria.
O ditador e seus amigos ficarão se alternando no poder o quanto quiserem. E quem irá detectar alguma fraude?
Voltando para a sentença alemã, aí está o link (https://www.ndi.org/e-voting-guide/examples/constitutionality-of-electronic-voting-germany).
Vale a pena ler.
Me estranha nossos juízes do STF (especialmente um com especialização na Alemanha) que citam tantos autores alemães em suas sentenças, não se influenciarem por essa brilhante opinião da corte maior:
"The use of voting machines which electronically record the voters’ votes and electronically ascertain the election result only meets the constitutional requirements if the essential steps of the voting and of the ascertainment of the result can be examined reliably and without any specialist knowledge of the subject..."
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Resumo Português:
[ O uso de máquinas de voto eletrônicas só atendem às exigências constitucionais
se os passos essenciais da votação e da auditoria dos votos puder ser examinado
de forma clara que não necessite de conhecimento especializado.]
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Me estranha o nosso STF votar várias vezes contra a impressão do voto para permitir recontagem.
Me estranha também o apego e orgulho com que declaram altivamente que o "sistema eleitoral brasileiro é seguro, e referência mundial", como se estivessem repetindo um dogma religioso e qualquer questionamento ou discussão é rotulado de "conspiração antidemocrática".
Me espanta também a omissão dos técnicos do nosso país a respeito do tema.
Com exceção do professor Diego Aranha da UnB e Unicamp, nenhum outro que conheço se manifesta sobre o tema.
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É isso. Post gigante. Vamos discutir.
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Muito longo; não li:
- TSE é pouco transparente
- As opções de segurança implementadas pelo nosso sistema atual não são perfeitas e permitem questionamentos
- Um sistema eleitoral vulnerável expõe o país à interferência externa. Mais ainda quando o domínio cibernético é o mais novo domínio militar das potências
- Muitos países desenvolvidos não usam sistemas eletrônicos de votação por considerarem inseguros ou antidemocráticos
- Me estranha a forma dogmática com que as autoridades tratam do assunto no Brasil, e a população, principalmente os especialistas, aceitam sem questionamento

*edit: add o link pro video
submitted by Uicnejfop to brasilivre [link] [comments]


2020.11.03 17:20 EzePerez1492 Lista de celulares compatibles con la App Carga Sube Beta

Lista de celulares compatibles con la App Carga Sube Beta
La app Carga Sube, que te permite acreditar el saldo que se le carga a la tarjeta mediante el uso del NFC del celular, está muy buena. Sn embargo, no hay una lista de celulares compatibles, desde las redes sociales oficiales de Sube simplemente dicen: "intentá bajarte la app, si podes es porque funciona".
https://preview.redd.it/ivlmhrn4v1x51.png?width=1292&format=png&auto=webp&s=3469e1106fa050c7754731cbbe700f323529038a
Todo muy lindo, pero si yo estoy pensando cambiarme el celular no puedo probar si funciona en un celular que todavía tengo. Porque el problema es que hay algunos celulares que cuentan con NFC pero que de igual manera la aplicación no funciona. Entonces es alto garrón si me compro un celu nuevo con NFC y la app no funciona, pierdo una función que tenía en el celular anterior por no haber una lista que me permita saber en cuál celu anda la app y en cuál no.
Por eso estaba pensando en ir armando una lista que se vaya actualizando de todos los celulares confirmados donde la app de Carga Sube funcione. De esta manera, uno al pensar en cambiarse el celular puede consultar esta lista para saber si la app va a funcionar o no.

Celulares Compatibles:

BLACKVIEW:
  • Bv9600
CAT:
  • S60
Google:
  • Pixel
  • Pixel 2
  • Pixel 2 XL
HUAWEI:
  • Nexus 6P
  • P30 Pro
LG:
  • Optimus G
  • G3
  • G4
  • G4 Beat
  • G5
  • G6
  • V20
MOTOROLA:
  • Moto G5 Plus
  • Moto G5s Plus
  • Moto G6 Plus
  • Moto G7 Plus
  • Moto X (Primera Generación)
  • Moto X4
  • Moto Z
  • Moto Z Play
  • Moto Z2
  • Moto Z2 Play
  • Moto Z3 Play
  • One
  • One Action
  • One Vision (requiere descargar la actualización de software PSA29.160-50)
  • One Zoom
NOKIA:
  • 6
  • 8
ONE PLUS:
  • 3
  • 3T
  • 5
  • 5T
  • 6
  • 6T
  • 7
  • 7T
  • 7 Pro
SAMSUNG:
  • Galaxy A5 (2017)
  • Galaxy A8
  • Galaxy A70
  • Galaxy J5 (2016)
  • Galaxy J7 Pro
  • Galaxy Note 8
  • Galaxy Note 10+
  • Galaxy S6 (Flat)
  • Galaxy S7
  • Galaxy S7 Edge
  • Galaxy S8
  • Galaxy S8+
  • Galaxy S9
  • Galaxy S9+
  • Galaxy S10
  • Galaxy S10e
  • Galaxy S10+
RAZER:
  • Phone 2
SONY:
  • Xperia M4 Aqua
  • Xperia XA1
  • Xperia XA1 Plus
  • Xperia XA1 Ultra
  • Xperia XA2
  • Xperia XZ1
  • Xperia XZ Premium
  • Xperia Z3+
  • Xperia Z5 Compact
XIAOMI:
  • MI 8 (Global)
  • MI 9
  • MI 9 Lite
  • MI 9SE
  • MI 9T
  • MI 9T Pro
  • Redmi Note 8 Pro (A veces presenta problemas la app)
  • Redmi Note 8T

Si alguno tiene un celular que no está en la lista y la app le funciona, que lo comente y lo agrego
submitted by EzePerez1492 to argentina [link] [comments]


2020.10.29 17:08 jesaes100 8 ideas de negocios rentables por Internet 2020

Hoy vamos a hablar de algunos de los negocios más rentables por Internet que podemos crear con WordPress de forma fácil. Tendrás todo lo que necesitas a tu alcance y a bajo coste, lo que es importante para poder probar si un negocio es o no rentable antes de invertir más tiempo y dinero.

https://preview.redd.it/i76jjvjc52w51.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1eca3b6eddc27103c9c906e7a492136e535de134
Si aun no cuentas con una pagina web, o no tienes idea, acá te dejo método 2020 para crear una web profesional gratuitamente fácilmente ..... http://tedigo-como.blogspot.com/2017/01/te-digo-como-crear-una-web-gratis.html ...........................................................................................................................................
Ahora sí, vamos a ver unos cuantos ejemplos de negocios rentables por Internet que puedes montar fácilmente con WordPress.

Nº1 Blog como negocio rentable en Internet

Quizá, un blog es la forma más básica de crear un negocio online con WordPress. Y no digo que sea fácil, pero en muchas ocasiones, los que tenemos un blog nos hemos podido plantear monetizarlo y convertirlo en un negocio rentable que nos de viabilidad para seguir invirtiendo tiempo en crear contenidos para compartir nuestros conocimientos. Cuando abrimos un blog suele ser para escribir en él sobre una temática que nos gusta y en la que tenemos algo que aportar. Generalmente lo que nos diferencia será nuestro punto de vista o forma de hacer las cosas, ya que casi todas las temáticas suelen estar presentes ya en la red. Pero no se trata de reinventar la rueda si no de aportar valor con nuestra experiencia y punto de vista. Como decía, un blog podría comenzar así. Sin ninguna intención extra.

Nº2 – Página nicho como negocio rentable en Internet

Una página nicho consiste en un blog ultra enfocado en un nicho de mercado concreto que persigue captar una audiencia también muy concreta y que dispone su contenido de forma muy optimizada cara a la monetización. Suelen ser pequeños de tamaño pero muy bien posicionados en motores de búsqueda. Y se suelen centrar en audiencias con la mayor intención de compra posible. Utilizan cualquier forma de monetización de las que hemos visto arriba y otras para aumentar al máximo las opciones de ganar dinero en Internet. Pero no ofrecen ni productos ni servicios propios. Así, lo más normal es que las páginas nicho que se convierten en negocios rentables por Internet son aquellas basadas en enlaces de afiliación y anuncios a través de Google Adsense. WordPress es perfecto para gestionar contenidos, para insertar anuncios y hemos visto también algunos plugins para gestionar los enlaces de afiliado. Así que tienes a tu alcance una forma relativamente sencilla de comenzar a tener ingresos online.

Nº 3- Tienda online como negocio rentable por Internet

La mayor parte de tiendas online hechas a día de hoy (2019) están desarrolladas en WordPress con el increíble plugin gratuito Woocommerce. Si WordPress es gratuito y Woocommerce también, podrás entender que no es difícil conseguir uno de los negocios más rentables por Internet si montamos una tienda online. Pero… ¿realmente es tan fácil? Resulta que la combinación WordPress + Woocommerce ha desbancado al resto de competidores (Magento, Prestashop, Shopify…) precisamente por su facilidad de uso como motivo principal. Además, es que darle un toque profesional y atractivo también es más sencillo que nunca debido a la gran cantidad de plantillas woocommerce que ya vienen preparadas para albergar una tienda online apetecible, como puedes ver en ese contenido enlazado. No obstante, si quieres crear una tienda online de tipo Dropshipping, te recomendamos elegir una buena plantilla Shopify para crear tu ecommerce de manera rápida y profesional. Pero, así como montar una tienda online ahora es muy sencillo, que esté al alcance de cualquiera no significa que siempre vayas a conseguir un negocio rentable si montas una. Será imperativo que tengas una buena estrategia de marketing online si quieres que tu tienda pase de estar en un desierto a la calle principal de una gran ciudad.

Nº4 – Cómo crear un Marketplace con WordPress y tener un negocio rentable en Internet sin vender tus propios productos

Un marketplace es una tienda online en la que hay varios vendedores. Es más, cualquiera podría registrarse como vendedor y vender ahí sus productos a cambio de un porcentaje de la venta que iría para la propia plataforma. Un ejemplo, para entendernos, sería Amazon. Pero se me vienen a la cabeza otros como Ebay o Envato. Todos ellos son marketplaces donde además de vender productos propios, existen diferentes vendedores cada uno con su perfil de vendedor. Y todos ellos son un buen ejemplo de negocios rentables por Internet. Ahora verás que crear un marketplace con WordPress es sencillo y no necesitas mucha inversión

Nº5 – Member-ship site o club como negocio rentable por Internet

Es el momento de los member-ship sites. Muchos profesionales están optando por este modelo para crear negocios rentables por Internet. El motivo principal son los ingresos recurrentes. Un member-ship site no es más que un club de socios que pagan una cantidad cada cierto tiempo por pertenecer al mismo. Así, el propietario de uno de estos clubs, recibe con recurrencia el pago de cada uno de los miembros. Y a cambio, los miembros del site reciben unos beneficios que no recibe el resto de usuarios no socios. Además, los membership-sites pueden ser de contenido, de comunidad, de producto o de servicio.

Nº6 – Academia online

Crear una academia online con WordPress puede resultar un negocio muy rentable en Internet porque la materia prima es el conocimiento. Conocimiento que tengas tú o cualquiera de tus socios (y a lo peor tus trabajadores si tuvieras que contratar). Sólo tienes que organizar bien toda la información, entregarla adecuadamente y hacer un seguimiento de tus alumnos. Existen diferentes plugins y muchas opciones para crear academias online con WordPress que cubran todas esas necesidades.

Nº7 – Directorio

Si conoces bien un sector y tienes contactos, quizá podrías pensar en crear un directorio con WordPress. Se va a llevar bastante trabajo y no es fácil monetizarlo. Pero si persistes y vas incorporando cada vez más contenido terminará siendo interesante para los anunciantes y se puede convertir en un negocio rentable por Internet. Si no lo sabías, un directorio simplemente es un buscador de perfiles (ya sean empresas, profesionales… etc). Los perfiles que la gente puede encontrar serian tus clientes que pagarían por estar en tu listado. Además podría haber diferentes planes si quieres que tu perfil se destaque por encima de otros por ejemplo.

Nº8 – Red Social Vertical

A diferencia de las redes sociales generalistas (como Facebook, Twitter, Youtube…) una Red Social Vertical es una red nicho. Es decir, todos los integrantes o usuarios de la red tienen algo en común. Un interés, una afición, un oficio, un hobby… Y esto, por un lado las hace más minoritarias pero a la vez están tan enfocadas que tiene mucho valor para sus usuarios. Un ejemplo de red social vertical sería Badoo. En esta red social vertical todos los usuarios están interesados en encontrar relaciones de amistad, de pareja o lo que pueda surgir. Así, las redes tan nicho, pueden convertirse en negocios rentables por Internet porque podemos ofrecer servicios muy concretos a nuestros usuarios. A la vez, podemos proporcionar patrocinios y promociones a marcas y empresas con una audiencia muy concreta. Sea cual sea el modelo de negocio de cada red social vertical, casi seguro que se basará en esta característica y en el poder de la segmentación de su audiencia.
submitted by jesaes100 to espanol [link] [comments]


2020.10.25 16:01 BlurRex 6 anos procurando emprego, + de 300 currículos entregues e + de 60 entrevistas = Não consegui NADA! Cansei e vazei!

Isso é um manifesto. Venho por meio deste dizer que eu surtei. Tem 6 anos que procuro emprego e não consigo absolutamente nada. Moro em Brasília e eu não aguento mais esse lugar, já fiz um post falando que iria embora daqui devido a falta de oportunidades de emprego/cultura/lazer... e esse momento chegou. Estarei indo para São Paulo em Janeiro se não conseguir nada até lá.
Estou na minha ultima tentativa de achar algo, entregando currículos nos escassos mercados/farmácias/floriculturas e lojas aleatórias daqui, deve ter menos de 50 mercados e farmácias. Eu entreguei em 15 marcados e 10 em farmácias e 1 em floricultura na semana passada e amanha vou entregar no resto e ir em mais lojas de outros setores que não são pequenas e trabalha só pessoas da família (cidade do interior né) No total devo entregar uns 70 currículos.
Fui em mais de 60 entrevistas de 2014 até 2018. No início era quase sempre coisa do CIEE pq eu estava no ensino médio, era vagas pra Caixa econômica, Correios e umas lojas de shopping. Nunca deu em nada eu nunca fui chamado e creio que boa parte era pq eu não tinha experiência mas COMO TER EXPERIÊNCIA SE NUNCA ME DÃO A OPORTUNIDADE DE TRABALHAR PARA TER EXPERIÊNCIA!!???
Nessa época eu já tinha me formado em dois cursos avançados de informática Conhecimento intermediário do Photoshop, sei usar o pacote office completo e to sempre aprendendo algo novo, tenho uma digitação rápida graças ao curso, conhecimento do básico de hardware e software e como mexer em tudo e o intermediário do inglês e entendia muito, graças aos vários anos vendo musica com a letra traduzida e vendo série legendada. E não era um inglês mixuruca, eu conversava com vários gringos do Tumblr de boa, eu me garantia demais pra quem nunca pisou num curso de inglês e só tinha o inglês do ensino médio e estudava por fora sozinho. Mas isso nunca foi o suficiente pra ninguém aparentemente. (Agora em 2020 depois de fazer TI eu já tenho um conhecimento bem maior de tudo isso, melhorei demais meu inglês, Vejo filmes sem legendas e compreendo 95%, entendo muito mais de hardware e software....)
Hoje estudo francês sozinho, comprei um curso e irei fazer a prova para conseguir o certificado de nível A1 hoje, tem 10 semanas que comecei e já consigo ler textos pequenos, entendo por volta de 80% dos comentários em apps/jogos em francês do Google play, pq meu celular ta em francês e lá o povo fala o francês do povão, com gírias e tals. gosto de ler lá. Enfim, Estou aprendendo bem e coloquei isso no meu currículo atual que estou entregando por aí.
Em 2018 eu perdi a noção e cometi quase um crime pra minha saúde, eu andei tudo isso aí do print (PRINT AQUI, CLICA, A FOTO TA NO IMGUR) entregando currículos. Entreguei em tudo que foi loja até oficinas, que ali na Asa norte é lotado kkkkkkkkkk foram mais de 200 currículos nesse surto. Eu fiz isso em outubro, novembro e dezembro de 2018 e janeiro de 2019 1 vez no mês sempre começando do inicio da asa norte pq sempre tem umas lojas mais pra dentro do bairro e eu deixava elas pra depois, em janeiro, devo ter entregue uns 20 e só em loja pequena. Não consegui absolutamente nada, nem uma ligação só uma infecção urinária pq andei demais no sol mesmo tomando muita água, passei umas dores fortes e vim me contorcendo no ônibus.
Depois disso acordei pra vida e já comecei a ver que eu não era o problema, mesmo com muitas qualificações, só sem experiência, eu nunca consegui nem trabalho voluntário (sim, fui recusado em 3)
fui 1 ano ao psicólogo em 2016 e ela ja me alertava sobre isso, que eu estava me culpando demais sobre algo que não era culpa minha, era no mínimo culpa de JK kkkkkkkkkkkk mas eu ainda achava possível conseguir pelo menos vaga em algum fast food, sei lá (fui ingênuo)
Não moro exatamente no centro ali aonde o resto do Brasil conhece como Brasília e nós daqui chamamos de Plano Piloto, moro um pouco afastado e isso fode mais ainda qualquer oportunidade. Desde 2014 eu busco emprego, comecei com o jovem aprendiz que na época estava no auge mas o governo daqui direciona as vagas mais pra quem é adolescente de risco (pais viciado em drogas, na cadeia, pai/mãe violento) isso começou exatamente em 2014 e por isso geral estava sendo chamado pq geral aqui tem familiares nessas condições (sim, é uma cidade muito perigosa mesmo, um bairro tem guerra com outro e a galera de um bairro não pode ir no outro senão rola no mínimo uma surra) e eu não estou nesse grupo de risco, meu pai é funcionário publico mas num cargo baixo, não recebe 2000 por mês. Mas pro governo eu sou rico e isso já me foi dito até por uma assistente social de um programa de jovem aprendiz daqui, que por eu ser dependente do meu pai no imposto de renda até os 24 anos tudo do governo eu serei excluído. Esse provavelmente é um do motivos de nunca ter conseguido um jovem aprendiz. Mas já desencanei dessa, faço 24 anos em fevereiro de 2021, já era. Meu negócio agora é com vagas normais tipo mercado, farmácia, lojas... nunca consegui nada, eu desencanei do jovem aprendiz lá em 2017 quando comecei um curso na área de odontologia, esperando achar vagas mas não achei nada também, fui em 11 entrevistas em clinicas, em 1 sofri racismo de um paciente (era numa parte rica da cidade, o lago sul. Eu estava esperando na recepção e a moça achou que eu era faxineiro do local) e em outra o dentista riu na minha cara quando disse o nome de instrumental errado (EU TAVA NO 1º SEMESTRE PORRA) desencanei total dessa área quando fiz meus estágios obrigatórios e vi o quão podre é. enfim, Fui fazer TI - Desenvolvimento de Sistemas estou lá há mais de 1 ano e meio e nada de estágios os que aparecem dão pra quem mora perto da empresa pq gasta menos com passagem. Ainda estudo em EAD mas farei só esse esse semestre pra pegar o segundo certificado do 2º módulo, preciso dele para comprovar que posso atuar como Desenvolvedor de sites. Foi a matéria que mais gostei e pretendo focar nisso, fazer sites e vender.
Concluo que: O problema está realmente em Brasília e como ela funciona, nenhum dos meus irmãos conseguiram algo também e e isso lá em 2006/07/08 hoje eles nem moram mais aqui e não falta exemplos de pessoas que sofrem com a falta de oportunidades aqui, principalmente os da periféria de brasília que dependem de ônibus pra chegar no trabalho, esses quando não excluídos no processo por morar longe demais, demora no minimo 2 horas pra chegar no trabalho (e não Brasilia, praticamente não tem metrô)
Chegou o meu momento de sumir desse lugar pq senão vou ter 30 anos e morando com os pais, já comecei a vender tudo que tenho e não pretendo levar na mala, vendi casacos, calças que não servem mais, e tenho mais coisas a vender. Vou para São Paulo, só eu e minhas malas com o necessário para viver. Não tenho amigos, bichos, vínculos ou qualquer outra responsabilidade que me prenda em Brasília. também vou sem muito dinheiro, vou ver se consigo uma vaga em algum abrigo LGBT tipo o casa 1 por enquanto. Não conheço ninguém em SP só um amigo virtual que mora na Zona Leste mas ja vive de aluguel com pais. Eu vou, com medo claro, talvez eu sofra muito, passe fome, frio, durma na rua mas viver aqui não dá mais. sei que dias melhores virão.
submitted by BlurRex to desabafos [link] [comments]


2020.10.24 16:31 menem95 Análisis Walmart (NYSE:WMT)

Análisis Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
Hola! Tras haber sido bien recibidos los análisis que hice de Disney y de American Airlines hace unas semanas, hoy comparto una nueva edición, por supuesto los invito a debatir, agregar, sugerir, putearme etc. El jueves, en busca de diversificar una cartera mayoritariamente comprada en tech, decidí pegarle un vistazo a Walmart (NYSE:WMT). Adjunto hoy el tl;dr que me habían pedido la otra vez, lo pongo al principio porque sino es una paja encontrarlo.
Tl;dr: La acción viene bien en los últimos años. De ver los financials se puede apreciar que la compañía venia lentamente perdiendo terreno, pero los últimos años (desde 2019) empezó a recuperar. Los estados financieros (actuales) me gustan, poca deuda, buena ganancia neta (si bien hay algunas cuestiones a prestar atención, como el working capital negativo), los ratios también. En un contexto donde las empresas de retail clásicas están amenazadas por el e-commerce, Walmart tiene a su favor la intención de reconvertirse (están pisando fuerte con el management y la política de fusiones y adquisiciones) y su posición dominante. Igualmente el riesgo no me parece bajo, si no se adapta bien la competencia la destruye.
Wal-Mart Inc.[1] es una corporación multinacional de tiendas de origen estadounidense. Walmart abrió miles de tiendas en EEUU, y se expandió internacionalmente. Hoy en día posee aproximadamente 11500 tiendas bajo 56 marcas en 27 países y opera mediante e-Commerce en 10 países. Asimismo, la compañía emplea 2.2 Millones de personas (1,5M solo en EEUU).[2] Respecto a su historia, Walmart fue fundada por el legendario Sam Walton, quien abrió el primer Walmart en 1962, con 44 años de edad, en Rogers, Arkansas, para 1967 tenían 24 tiendas, y tenían ventas por 12,7M de dólares. En 1970 Walmart se convirtió en una compañía pública (OTC) y desde 1972, donde ya tenían (en solo 10 años de historia) 51 tiendas y ventas por 78M USD, Walmart está listada en el NYSE (también forma parte hoy en día del DJIA y del S&P 500). Básicamente el éxito de la fórmula de Walton se resume en dos pilares: precios bajos y atención al cliente (por sencillo que parezca).[3]
Walmart (NYSE:WMT), cerró a 143,55 dólares por acción el 22/10/2020. El desempeño de la acción, tomando como referencia el DJIA, el S&P 500 y el Consumer Staples Select Sector Index que elabora Standard & Poor (el ETF es NYSE:XLP),[4] fue bueno, habiendo crecido un 19,88% los últimos 12 meses, contra 14,86% del S&P 500, 7,86% del XLP, y 5,73% del DJIA. Desde enero (YTD) el diferencial es aún mayor, habiendo crecido 20,79% contra 6,89% del S&P 500, 3,64% del XLP y una disminución del 0,61% para el DJIA. Prestando atención a un swing un poco mas largo, el desempeño de Walmart los últimos 5 años fue muy superior al de los índices de referencia, habiendo subido un 146,36% contra un 66,30% del S&P 500, un 60,24% del DJIA y un 28,91% del XLP. La acción no es muy volátil, tiene un beta (5 años, mensual) de 0,28, moviéndose dentro de todo en la dirección del mercado.
Mirando las medias móviles (SMA de 30, 90 y 200 dias), al 22/10 Walmart está en $143,55, ligeramente por encima de la media de 30 dias (140,29) y bastante por encima de la media de 90 y de 200 (en 133,59 y 125,84 respectivamente). En cuanto al volumen, vemos que en las últimas ruedas (desde principios de Octubre) oscila entre 4 y 6M de USD, lo que es una reducción grande respecto de los volúmenes del orden de los 10M (aprox.) que suelen operarse de este papel, lo cual puede ser una señal a tener en cuenta.[5]

https://preview.redd.it/2xt4compz1v51.png?width=1491&format=png&auto=webp&s=7972388a4257f0ab6f66e27f5caee167619ae571
La compañía tiene un gran tamaño, es sin lugar a dudas una “large cap”, ostentando una capitalización de mercado de 407 miles de millones de dólares, la 9na mas grande de las que cotizan en los mercados principales de USA.[6] Respecto a la posición financiera de la empresa, Walmart tenía, en julio 2020, 64.996M de dólares de activos corrientes (contra 61806M en enero), y un pasivo corriente de 81.957M (contra 77.790M de enero), lo que arroja un current ratio de 0,8 y un working capital negativo de -16961M de dólares (alrededor de 1000M menos que en enero), lo que nos permite identificar la posibilidad de eventuales dificultades en la operatoria en el corto plazo.
Respecto a la deuda de largo plazo de la compañía, encontramos que la misma se ha ido reduciendo, reportando, al 31 de Julio de 2020, 40.959M de dólares de deuda de largo plazo (un 7,8% menos de los 44.404M que reportaron en Julio 2019), lo que representa un 17% del total capital. No obstante, como surge del reporte anual de esta compañía, la grandísima mayoría de la deuda es fija, existiendo solo 1500M USD (a enero 2020) de deuda sujeta a interés variable (interés reportado promedio de 2,1%), con maturity máxima del fin del FY 2022 (enero 2022).
En relación a las ganancias de la compañía. Para el Q2 2020 Walmart reportó ganancias netas por 6.476M de dólares, lo que es un incremento sideral de casi el 80% con respecto a los 3.610 reportados en el Q2 2019. Para el año fiscal terminado en enero 2020, Walmart reportó 14.881M de dólares de ganancias netas, lo que representa un gran incremento con respecto a años anteriores. Echando un vistazo a las ganancias de Walmart los últimos 10 años:
Año (ene-ene) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net income (mill. USD) 16389 15699 16999 16022 16363 14694 13643 9862 6670 14881
Dif. Anual % - -4,21 8,28 -5,75 2,13 -10,2 -7,15 -27,71 -32,37 123,1
Podemos observar que si bien las ganancias crecieron un 123% interanual, las perspectivas hasta el año pasado no eran buenas (cabe aclarar que en los años fiscales la merma de ganancias se debe en parte a la agresiva política de adquisiciones de la compañía), Walmart no parecía un negocio en ascenso, sino mas bien lo contrario. No obstante, el último año fiscal Walmart supo recuperar fuertemente su caudal de negocios, para llegar a niveles similares, si bien aun inferiores, a los que tenía hace 10 años. Esta tendencia parece confirmarse con los reportes trimestrales de este año, que marcan incrementos respecto al año anterior.
Mirando el flujo de efectivo

Año (ene-ene) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CF de operaciones (mill. USD) 23643 24255 25591 23257 28564 27389 31530 28337 27753 25255
Dif. Anual % - 2,59 5,51 -9,12 22,82 -4,11 15,12 -10,13 -2,06 -9
Podemos observar que el flujo de efectivo por operaciones no creció, sino que mantuvo una cierta estabilidad a lo largo de los años, lo mismo sucede con el CF de actividades de financiamiento.
Respecto a la política de dividendos de la empresa, el primer dividendo pagado por Walmart es de $0,05 por acción anual en 1974, desde entonces Walmart ha ido incrementando anualmente los dividendos. Hoy en día paga 4 dividendos trimestrales (abril, Junio, Septiembre, Enero) de $0,54 por acción para este año fiscal, y presumiblemente $0,55 para el año siguiente. Asimismo, hubo varios splits, el último de ellos en 1999.[7]
Yendo un poco a los distintos ratios que tiene la empresa, Walmart ostenta un EPS (TTM) de alrededor de 6,3 (contra un 3,96 promedio de los últimos 5 años). En un periodo de 10 años, tomando el EPS promedio de los primeros 3 años fiscales (4,67) y de los últimos 3 (3,58), podemos ver como mermaron las ganancias de la compañía. Para el ultimo trimestre (MRQ) el EPS da 2,28 un incremento de 80% por sobre el mismo trimestre del año anterior.
Respecto al P/E de la empresa, vemos un dato positivo, ya que Walmart tiene un P/E de 22,95 (contra un ratio promedio de 26,72 para el DJIA y de 38,21 para el S&P 500).[8] Usando de referencia el EPS de los últimos 3 años (3,58), el P/E nos da 40,1 (considerar la fuerte suba de ganancias del ultimo año sobre los dos anteriores). En cuanto al P/B lo encontramos en el orden de 4,98 (en promedio las large cap de Consumer Staples tienen un P/B de 5,49).[9]
Los competidores de Walmart se pueden dividir en dos grupos, los de retail clásicos, y los gigantes del e-commerce. A los efectos de hacer una comparación, voy a tomar los top 5 retailers de USA en 2019, que son (además de Walmart que ocupa el 1er lugar): Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Kroger (NYSE:KR), Costco (NASDAQ:COST) y Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA). Las 5 empresas tienen tamaños muy disimiles, si nos basamos en el Market Cap. Amazon lidera con 1605MM de USD, y Kroger ocupa el último lugar con 25MM (Walmart esta segundo, con 407MM). Punto en contra de Walmart es la cantidad de empleados, 2,2M de empleados (sigue Amazon con 798k, y al final esta Costco con 273k). En cuanto a performance, tanto YTD como anualmente, Walmart está en 3er lugar, superada por Amazon y Costco.
En cuanto a su EPS, Walmart esta tercera (superada por Amazon, con 26,48 y Costco con 9,05), pero en cuanto a P/E ostenta el segundo ratio mas bajo (solo superado por Kroger con 9,87), mientras que las otras compañías tienen ratios sideralmente mas altos (Costco tiene 41,68, Walgreens 75,93 y Amazon 122,09). En cuanto a los ingresos y ganancias, es para destacar que si bien Walmart tiene 524MM de dólares de ingreso, tiene 14,9MM de ganancia; en cambio, Amazon tiene 280MM de ingreso y 11,6MM de ganancia.[10]
Mirando márgenes el gross margin en cierta forma refleja esta “ineficiencia” que destacaba de Walmart en la oración anterior, dado que lidera Amazon con 40,27% de gross margin (no obstante, Walmart esta segundo con 24,66%, superando a Kroger con 20,85%, Walgreens con 18,7% y Costco con 13,15%).[11] Estos datos nos permiten observar que comparativamente no esta mal posicionada, si bien es obvio que Amazon parece superar el desempeño de esta compañía, y que analizar Costco puede resultar de interés.
En cuanto al soporte institucional de Walmart, vemos que hay un 30,95% del flotante en manos de instituciones, siendo los principales tenedores The Vanguard Group Inc. con 4,77%, Blackrock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) que posee el 3,12% y State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) con el 2,46% de la compañía.
En cuanto al management, de los 11 directores 7 son independientes, el chairman y el CEO son personas diferentes, y 8 de los 11 directores son menores de 59 años. El CEO, Douglas McMillon, cuenta con 29 años de experiencia en la compañía y ostenta el cargo desde 2014, su remuneración es de $22.105.350 para 2020 (1,5M de dólares menos que el año anterior). Los demás executive officers cobran en promedio $18.057.392 USD. El sueldo promedio del empleado de Walmart es de $22.484 USD.
Llama la atención la gran compensación de Suresh Kumar, CTO de la compañía, cuya remuneración alcanza casi 46M de dólares de los cuales 43,6M son compensación en acciones. Esta remuneración entiendo que es equiparable a la que reciben ejecutivos legendarios de otras compañías como Bob Iger de Disney, que recibe 47,5M de USD. Esta remuneración parecería indicar el interés de Walmart en el desarrollo del puesto (inaugurado por Kumar), y en que este sea ocupado por un ejecutivo de jerarquía, que desempeñó roles importantes en Google y Amazon, pero estimo que será un punto a considerar en años subsiguientes.[12]
Sobre la política de fusiones y adquisiciones de la compañía, Walmart desarrolló una política agresiva los últimos años, a fines de adquirir compañías que potencien la faceta electrónica de la empresa. Entre esas, la más importante fue la adquisición, en una puja con Amazon, por 16MM de USD de Flipkart, una empresa de comercio electrónico de india, en agosto de 2018. Otra adquisición importante fue la de la estadounidense Jet.com en 3,3MM de USD en 2016, así como también adquirieron en 2017 la tienda de ropa online Bonobos, por 310M de USD, entre muchas otras.[13]
Mirando un poco al futuro de la compañía, de la carta a los inversores que elaboró el chairman (Greg Penner), podríamos inferir el enfoque casi obvio que toma la empresa, la transición hacia un modelo más digital, haciendo crecer las ventas de e-commerce, pero aprovechando la ventaja (o desventaja) que presupone la gran cantidad de tiendas físicas que la compañía posee. A mi juicio esto ultimo es un arma de doble filo, es una desventaja por los costos que implica (se ven en la comparación con Amazon), pero también es una ventaja por sobre Amazon y compañías similares, en la medida que otorga a los clientes la posibilidad de hacer pickup de los productos que compra, algo que en una compañía puramente de e-commerce resulta imposible, o al menos difícil de ofrecer.
En ese sentido Walmart, al menos hasta enero de este año, mantuvo el mismo nivel de tiendas físicas que los años anteriores, en el orden de las 11.500 unidades. En cuanto a las ventas por e-commerce, reporta para el Q2 2020 un crecimiento del 97% en ventas netas por internet. También reconocen cierta incidencia positiva de los paquetes de estímulo del gobierno de EEUU en determinados segmentos de negocio (principalmente consumer discretionary).[14]
Los prospectos futuros de la economía general son alentadores, en el futuro cercano todo parece indicar que la economía en EEUU se recuperará y fuertemente, en parte gracias a que casi todos los Estados levantaron las cuarentenas y también ayudados por el alivio fiscal y monetario sin precedentes del gobierno.[15] En esa línea parecen también moverse las encuestas, que parecen indicar una recuperación del consumo.[16]

https://preview.redd.it/h2nz5vioz1v51.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc6d0dc3d95c1188f46e485723de4df023ef972
En términos generales, la posición de Walmart es la de un conglomerado mundial de retail, de manera tal que, al ser el principal retailer “brick and mortar” del mundo, la cuestión se centra principalmente en la resistencia a la sustitución por parte de la avanzada feroz del comercio electrónico, liderada por Amazon. Quizás valga la pena hacer referencia al caso de Blockbuster y Netflix.
Lo cierto es que Walmart, a diferencia de Blockbuster, es consciente del cambio de paradigma de la industria, y esta dispuesto a tomar medidas para evitarlo (mas capital allocation hacia e-commerce y logística en desmedro de abrir nuevas tiendas y expandir las existentes, las fusiones y aquisiciones, etc.), que se notan y tienen un impacto directo. No puedo dejar de mencionar ciertas red flags en contrario, que creo que serán determinantes a futuro: Walmart no cierra (o cierra pocas) tiendas físicas, y parece mantener la planta de empleados. Esto la hace mas ineficiente que Amazon, pero como contraprestación le permite el pickup en tiendas físicas de compras online, que suele ser mas rápido que esperar la entrega (lo cual Amazon no puede hacer de la misma manera, ni siquiera aprovechando las tiendas de Whole Foods), siendo esta una tendencia popular que se acentuó con la pandemia.[17] De manera tal que considero que el punto ideal está en encontrar el equilibrio entre el ajuste de tiendas físicas y personal y conservar ese diferencial.
La última cuestión importante respecto al futuro es Walmart+,[18] el nuevo programa de fidelidad de Walmart con el que piensa competir con Amazon Prime y que reemplazará al anterior programa de la compañía (llamado Delivery Unlimited). La ventaja comparativa de este producto es principalmente su precio, dado que la suscripción anual cuesta 20 dólares menos que la de Amazon ($98 contra $119). Otra ventaja es el bajo precio de los alimentos en Walmart, contra Whole Foods de Amazon (que es conocida por justamente lo contrario). La principal desventaja es que, por esos 20 dolares de diferencia, Amazon ofrece Prime Video, Music Unlimited, eBooks, almacenamiento en la nube para fotos, etc. mientras que Walmart no tiene (aún) servicios similares, únicamente ofrece ciertos descuentos en combustibles y otros productos. Por último tampoco tiene Walmart un catalogo tan extenso como el que pueden acceder los catálogos de Amazon Prime. Es por esto que el servicio deja un gusto a poco, y entiendo que sería conveniente que Walmart ofrezca mas “perks” para quienes se suscriban, o que tome una política mas agresiva en cuanto al pricing.[19]
A modo de conclusión puedo decir que si bien Walmart está lejos de desaparecer, y esta tomando medidas para reconvertirse y ser un jugador fuerte del e-commerce en el futuro, queda en cada uno juzgar si van a estar a la altura de las circunstancias o están destinados al fracaso.
Disclaimer: La presente investigación y análisis no debe entenderse de manera alguna como una recomendación o sugerencia de inversión. El autor recomienda enfáticamente a los lectores la realización de investigación propia con la debida diligencia.

[1] En principio la investigación se hace en base a los filings de Walmart ante la SEC, principalmente los Forms 10-K y 10-Q, disponibles en https://stock.walmart.com/investors/financial-information/annual-reports-and-proxies/default.aspx y en base a los datos recopilados en Yahoo! Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT/). Valores en dinero expresados en dólares estadounidenses.
[2] De: https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/our-business
[3] De: https://corporate.walmart.com/our-story/our-history
[4] Hay otros índices sectoriales como el S&P 500 Retailing Industry Group (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/sp500.2550/charts?CountryCode=xx) que comparativamente no arrojan resultados tan buenos para Walmart.
[5] Comparación en base a gráfico y datos de TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/)
[6] Comparación realizada por https://www.dogsofthedow.com/largest-companies-by-market-cap.htm
[7] Ver https://stock.walmart.com/investors/stock-information/dividend-history/default.aspx
[8] Datos de Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields)
[9] Según Zacks (https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/WMT/fundamental/price-book-value). Datos sectoriales de Siblis Research (https://siblisresearch.com/data/price-to-book-secto)
[10] Según índice de la National Retail Federation: https://nrf.com/resources/top-retailers/top-100-retailers/top-100-retailers-2020-list
[11] Comparación realizada con el screener de TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/screene
[12] Información sobre el management tomada del Proxy Statement del Annual Report 2020 https://s2.q4cdn.com/056532643/files/doc_financials/2020/a2020-Proxy.pdf
[13] Datos de https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/102315/top-4-companies-owned-walmart.asp ; https://theatlas.com/charts/rkIYdxGAG ; https://moneyinc.com/companies-you-didnt-know-walmart-owned/
[14] De la presentación de ganancias del Q2 https://s2.q4cdn.com/056532643/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Earnings-Presentation-7.31.2020-final.pdf
[15] Ver https://www.wsj.com/articles/second-coronavirus-wave-destabilizes-european-recovery-11603443406 ; https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-economic-activity-picks-up-while-europes-stalls-51603479545?mod=bol-social-tw y https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-23/economists-say-gdp-will-show-u-s-economy-grew-30-in-3q-a-postwar-record
[16] Ver http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
[17] Ver por ejemplo: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/11/walmart-target-try-to-beat-amazon-with-curbside-pickup.html
[18] https://www.walmart.com/plus
[19] Ver https://us.cnn.com/2020/09/15/cnn-underscored/walmart-vs-amazon-prime/index.html ; https://www.digitaltrends.com/web/what-is-walmart-plus/ ; https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/living/story/walmart-launches-compares-amazon-prime-73017852
submitted by menem95 to merval [link] [comments]


2020.08.29 03:42 Someone-00 Guns, the medical profession, and bad history Part 1: US gun culture saved Europe in the World Wars and Cold War

Part 2 here
I found out about Doctors for Responsible Gun Ownership when I first encountered the following article:
The US ‘Gun Culture’ That Saved Europe does not occur in a vacuum
(by the way, check the comments to get a real laugh)
Anyway, the writer is none other than Miguel Faria, a doctor and gun rights advocate who believes that Europe owes it's salvation in the World Wars to...American gun culture? I dug rather deep, finding out that Faria and his ilk at DRGO mangled the history of firearms in the US, the World Wars, US crime, the Wild West, and other issues so badly, that I had to mention it.
Offending links:
https://surgicalneurologyint.com/surgicalint-articles/is-gun-control-really-about-people-control/
https://drgo.us/review-america-guns-and-freedom-a-journey-by-miguel-a-faria-jr-md/
Faria claims that the weak, spineless Europeans, with no gun culture, allowed the Germans to overwhelm them in two world wars, yet the brave US saved their miserable, gun-hating asses twice. This is as you can tell, is utter horseshit, as it simply babbles on without any concrete evidence (save, of course, for a brief mention of Sgt. Alvin York as an example). Outside of this one anecdote (which, to Faria's credit, is certainly inspirational but not a definitive illustration of US military skill) there is no concrete evidence. Furthermore, it ignores important factors such as troop numbers, military tactics, resources, geography, and industry in favor of a nonsensical narrative. Furthermore, Faria continues to push the "guns would have stopped the Nazis" cliche.
Of course, this is far from the only badhistory I found. As it turns out, Faria and his friends at DRGO also believe that easy gun laws stop all sorts of crime and other nonsensical tropes about guns, which I'll get to in part two.
So let's start at part one: how the World Wars were stopped by gun culture. Faria does little to help his case with WWI by mentioning the case of Alvin York and using next to nothing else as evidence. The fact that the Germans where outnumbered, with 13 million troops against a total of 15 million from the Allied Powers, escapes him. As does the blockade that starved the entirety of Germany, as well as the fact that many German sailors were carrying out mutinies and that the country fell into unrest. Or even the fact that the Central Powers were falling apart one-by -one, or that Germany had just finished removing the Russians (themselves a major foe) from the war when America arrived. He even glosses over the many Allied victories, such as the 2nd Marne and 100 Days Offensive, stating that
Many Americans in the 21st century still cling to their guns and their Bibles, and it stands to reason that the alleged “gun culture” mentality and patriotic outlook may not be gained solely by an 8-week army basic training boot camp. Life experience, patriotism and the attitude to fight along your fellow soldiers in a just cause—such as freedom and a country’s way of life—do not appear in a vacuum.
Um... ok. What evidence do you have for this? And furthermore, if having high gun ownership makes you good at winning wars, then why did the US suffer a draw in Korea? Or lose Vietnam? Or fall into quagmires like Iraq and Afghanistan? Overall Faria chooses a completely unexplained factor as the reason for US victory, one which not one historian will take seriously. Is he forgetting the ferocity with which the other Allied Powers fought before the Americans arrived? The multiple fights at Ypres, Verdun, Vimy Ridge, the First Marne, Cambrai, are all those so forgettable?
WWI was won for a number of reasons. Woodrow Wilson's overtures to the German government, combined with more pacifistic leaders rising to power as the German military broke apart, and unrest at home all lead to Germany's surrender. Germany's Ottoman allies were being pummeled by British and Arabic forces. The Austro-Hungarians were on their knees, and the Bulgarians had quit the war. American forces would not be present in full until Spring 1918, when the German Spring Offensive, largely held back by the same Europeans Faria dismisses, held the Germans back long enough for the Americans to turn the tide. Germans forces overexerted themselves just as American reinforcements, fresh, ready for combat, and larger in numbers, began to arrive in Europe.
Faria then proceeds to brag about how the "pusillanimous Europeans" did nothing as Nazi Germany goose-stepped all over them. In Poland, Hitler triumphed due to the Poles simply being unprepared to deal with the twin Nazi and Soviet assaults. No declaration of war, combined with new tactics enabled the Germans to overrun the Poles in their Blitzkrieg. Norway fell due to the Allies having to abandon it to protect France. German forces conquered France by maneuvering past the Maginot Line and driving the British out at Dunkirk. The French Army, meanwhile, suffered from poor leadership and failed to repel the German Army, which had the element of surprise, along with speed, on their side. Finally, Greece fell due to an army that was too small, not prepared enough, and had inadequate support from it's neighbors and the British/Commonwealth forces, as documented by George E. Blau in his book The German Campaign in the Balkans.
As for the spineless Europeans that are constantly scorned, Faria forgets that in every nation the Nazis invaded, there were dedicated resistance groups. The Yugoslavian resistance, which beat the Croats, helped liberate Sarajevo, and took Trieste. The Soviet partisans, who fought for their country when their armies could not. The Germans in the Ruhr pocket who helped capture Dusseldorf. Or perhaps the Italians, who liberated Naples and killed a German general or even the French Resistance, who fought to free Paris and) made up for their lack of military prowess with their sabotage and spying.
American industry also was critical, too. The efficiency at which the US produced vehicles and other materials made them able to overwhelm their opposition, especially with the added benefit of being out of range from enemy bombers:
War production profoundly changed American industry. Companies already engaged in defense work expanded. Others, like the automobile industry, were transformed completely. In 1941, more than three million cars were manufactured in the United States. Only 139 more were made during the entire war. Instead, Chrysler made fuselages. General Motors made airplane engines, guns, trucks and tanks. Packard made Rolls-Royce engines for the British air force. And at its vast Willow Run plant in Ypsilanti, Michigan, the Ford Motor Company performed something like a miracle 24-hours a day. The average Ford car had some 15,000 parts. The B-24 Liberator long-range bomber had 1,550,000. One came off the line every 63 minutes.Shipyards turned out tonnage so fast that by the autumn of 1943 all Allied shipping sunk since 1939 had been replaced. In 1944 alone, the United States built more planes than the Japanese did from 1939 to 1945. By the end of the war, more than half of all industrial production in the world would take place in the United States.
Patriotism of soldiers certainly helps, yet the fanaticism of such countries as Japan and Germany did not win them the war. Japan's industry was unable to catch up with the sheer industrial might of the US (just look how fast each side could build aircraft carriers, for example). Germany, meanwhile, had to divide up their resources for the war effort, according to the United States Strategic Bombing Survey. German industry was disabled by repeated air raids that caused massive devastation:
In the wake of these attacks there are great paths of destruction. In Germany, 3,600,000 dwelling units, approximately 20% of the total, were destroyed or heavily damaged. Survey estimates show some 300,000 civilians killed and 780,000 wounded. The number made homeless aggregates 7,500,000. The principal German cities have been largely reduced to hollow walls and piles of rubble. German industry is bruised and temporarily paralyzed. These are the scars across the face of the enemy, the preface to the victory that followed.
The air raids that harassed Germany, were most effective when combined with a divided front. With up to 16 million American soldiers committed to the entire war, it would be hard to argue that the Nazis, (with 20 million) could sustain themselves against half that amount when combined with the scores of Soviet soldiers and the 5 million Brits (along with other Allied forces) also committed to the conflict.
Faria also arrogantly assumes that the Swiss were not invaded due to their zealous gun culture. More likely theories include the fact that the Swiss were not only tough fighters but could use the rugged terrain to their advantage. Furthermore, it's believed that the Nazis wanted to use the country's banking system to store their gold. As such, an invasion would likely ruin their financial interests.
Faria and others, such as Robert B Young, claim that authoritarian regimes can be destroyed by gun ownership. Nazis (surprise, surprise) are brought up. This is a fallacy that has many reasons for being wrong. First off, why have Australia, Canada, the UK, and Japan not become dictatorships after passing far stricter gun laws? Second of all, the supposed gun control=Nazism argument is laughably absurd. Yes, the Nazis did ban Jews from gun ownership, yet no such gun laws are being proposed in the US. Furthermore, the claim that there would have been an uprising by German Jews going Rambo against the Nazis is undermined by many factors, not the least of which is the fact that they made up 1% of the population. That is not to say that there's any problem with them rising up, yet as pointed out by Alan E Steinweis, an expert of the Holocaust:
It is preposterous to argue that the possession of firearms would have enabled them to mount resistance against a systematic program of persecution implemented by a modern bureaucracy, enforced by a well-armed police state, and either supported or tolerated by the majority of the German population. Mr. Carson’s suggestion that ordinary Germans, had they had guns, would have risked their lives in armed resistance against the regime simply does not comport with the regrettable historical reality of a regime that was quite popular at home. Inside Germany, only the army possessed the physical force necessary for defying or overthrowing the Nazis, but the generals had thrown in their lot with Hitler early on.The failure of Jews to mount an effective defense against the Waffen-SS in the Warsaw Ghetto in 1943 provides a good example of what happens when ordinary citizens with small arms go up against a well-equipped force. The uprising in the ghetto possesses enduring symbolic significance, as an instance of Jews’ determination to resist their oppression. But the uprising saved few Jewish lives and had little to no impact on the course of either World War II or the Holocaust. Jews around the world did, to be sure, react to the Holocaust by concluding that they needed to protect themselves from anti-Semites more effectively. But they understood that this would be accomplished not through the individual acquisition of firearms, but rather through the establishment of a Jewish state with an army to defend it.
Furthermore, Nazi gun control was an anti-Semitic propaganda tool. Mass shootings were hardly a problem in Germany at the time. In fact, the Nazi gun control law, while certainly aimed at disarming the Jews, also extended access to firearms for groups the Nazi regime did approve of. Licenses for hunting, for instance, were loosened to allow ownership of any gun.
Faria cites other genocides as proof of why gun control is problematic. He and his allies list, in addition to the Nazis, the failed Hungarian Revolution of 1956, Castro's despotism in Cuba, and the Armenian, Cambodian, and Rwandan genocides. Faria uses the Warsaw ghetto as proof, yet seems to forget that the Jews who rebelled had armament comparable to civilians in the US, with one machine gun and some pistols. The Warsaw Uprising that he approvingly speaks of, meanwhile, relied on military-grade equipment such as sub-machine guns, not hunting rifles or more civilian-oriented weapons. The fact that it was an organized effort certainly helped, but so did their use of military-grade equipment that they made or had airdropped. The Hungarian revolution is also cited. What is neglected, however, is that the rebels actually won the first phase of the revolt. It was after the Soviet military arrived that Hungary gave in. He then mentions the dictatorship of Fidel Castro claiming that shortly after he took office, he asked " ¿Armas para que?", "Weapons for whom?". Yet what Castro meant was that the weapons that his 26 of July Movement had captured from the military and police would stay as such. Furthermore, he was talking about military weapons being smuggled and stolen.
Yet I tell you here and now that two days ago elements of certain organizations broke into the San Antonio barracks, which are under the jurisdiction of Commander Camilo Cienfuegos and also under my jurisdiction as commander in chief of the armed forces, and carried away 500 small arms, (16?) machine guns, and 80,000 cartridges.
The conversation does shift to gangsters, which presumably entails taking away civilian weapons, yet the conversation revolved around other rebels stockpiling weapons to counter Castro. Faria uses the 1959 Escambray rebellion in an attempt to point out the negatives of gun control, yet seems to miss the context. The Escambray rebels lost because, according to Ernest Volkman, they had lost CIA support, the elimination of many CIA assets by Castro likely factoring in. Faria has cited the small numbers and lack of supplies. Overall, to use gun control for the Escambray rebels is simply a poor argument, as it was other factors that lead to their defeat. Furthermore, as of 2017, it is believed that there are 2.10 guns per 100 people in Cuba. In fact, citizens can purchase firearms for hunting and self-defense. Why have no residents rebelled against the government using these weapons? And seeing as how little documentation there is of Cuba's gun culture, could it be that easy access to firearms would not have made much of a difference?
Armenia, Cambodia, and Rwanda are also ridiculous comparisons. In Armenia, the government did in fact pass a law in 1911 that required Armenians surrender their weapons. It was the outbreak of WWI that made the genocide inevitable, as long-held contempt for the Armenians by the Young Turks fueled suspicions that the Armenians would rebel against them. Furthermore, the Ottomans had forbidden groups like the Armenians from gun ownership for centuries. And before the 1911 law, a pogrom killed hundreds of thousands of Armenians in the 1890s. When the Armenians did have their guns taken, it was weapons that soldiers had been given, not just hunting rifles or handguns they owned for self-defense/hunting. To argue gun control enabled the genocide forgets the nuances behind the affair. The Armenian genocide website itself argues that it was not armed resistance that would have ended the genocide, but international awareness.
Cambodia is the next example, as Pol Pot did in fact eliminate guns. Unfortunately, most of those guns belonged to the upper-class:
Firearms ownership rates in rural rice farming communities practising subsistence agriculture have been very low in Cambodia, and firearms have not been part of traditional livelihood strategies. Cambodia is not rich in large game, and game meat is not part of the typical rural diet, which is largely based on the consumption of rice, with fish as a source of protein. Nutrition surveys have demonstrated that only a minority of the rural population eat any meat at all (27–34 per cent of children aged 24–59 months were found to have eaten some meat [Helmers and Kenefick, 1999, pp. 72–73]), and most of this is derived from livestock, such as chicken, pork, and to a lesser extent cattle. Low firearms ownership rates in rural society are also the outcome of government policies and low rural incomes. To counter communist and anti-colonial insurgencies, the French colonial rulers (1863–1953) passed several laws to prevent Cambodian peasants from arming themselves (Kopel, Gallant, and Eisen, 2005, p. 6; page no. from e-publication). The laws passed between 1920 and 1938 imposed a strict licensing system and only allowed hunters to own a single gun...Available evidence suggests that unlike in many Western societies, private firearms ownership during the early period of Cambodia’s independence before the Khmer Rouge took over (1953–75) was predominantly a characteristic of the urban male elite, who were mainly in government employment
While French colonists did place restrictions on gun ownership in the 1920s and 1930s, Cambodians in general never really were interested in it. Furthermore, the efforts to counter Communist insurgents involved the very same gun control that is seen as taking citizen's rights, yet it failed to stop Pol Pot from taking the country over. Overall, one could argue that lighter gun restrictions would have given the Cambodian populace a better chance, yet since they did not really have a thriving gun culture, it would have little impact. Those that did were upper-class, meaning that they were often in the minority.
As for Rwanda, I had trouble finding good sources. Rwanda does indeed allow gun ownership, yet the one law I was looking for, which was passed in 1979, had little information for me. As such, I'll have to make do with what I could find. The 1979 law was amended in 2000, 6 years after the genocide, to do such things as ban access of government firearms from the population. Basing the gun regulations off of this chart, I assume that Faria believes that gun registration, confiscation abilities, and more were what occurred. The Small Arms Survey's analysis of Rwanda, however, makes no mention of any abuse of this confiscation system. Furthermore, the idea that registration enabled the slaughter of Tutsi tribesmen and Hutu moderates ignores the fact that many Rwandans were required since the Belgian colonization to carry ID cards which gave their ethnicity. Alain Destexhe, a Belgian politician who worked for Doctors Without Borders in areas such as Rwanda, even goes so far as to say:
it was the ethnic classification registered on identity cards introduced by the Belgians that served as the basic instrument for the genocide of the Tutsi people...
Once again, it was an organized military faction, the Rwanda Patriotic Front, that stopped the genocide. It was not armed civilians, but a faction with weapons that far outclassed those legally available to civilians in the US. To argue that gun rights would stop these regimes ignores events that Faria cites.
Look at most regimes over the past 20 years, and you'll find that they had fairly large gun ownership. Sudan had millions of civilian weapons in circulation in 2007, yet it was 12 years before Omar al-Bashir was toppled, and not due to armed civilians. In Venezuela and Libya, authoritarian regimes grew in spite of high gun ownership rates. Yet easily the most surprising is the case of Iraq, where a large portion of the population, in spite of strict gun laws, owned firearms, yet Saddam stayed in power, enduring several rebellions and only being beaten by a US-led invasion. Saudi Arabia, an authoritarian regime in it's own right, had the 7th highest rate of gun ownership in the world.
Heading back to WWII and gun cultures, Faria makes the case that the only other country to offer the Nazis any resistance, the USSR, was largely due to the NKVD holding soldiers in place. He says:
just as Stalin’s “Patriotic War” stimulated Russians to fight for their motherland, and to make sure they did so the NKVD’s SMERCH units (Soviet military police and counter-intelligence units) were everywhere behind the front lines to stiffen Soviet fighting resolve if their morale lapsed.
While certainly, the Soviets did carry out these measures, they had already repelled the assault on Moscow when this order, No. 227, which organized such units, was passed. In late 1944, blocking detachments were disbanded, largely due to improvements on the front lines, yet their impact on morale arguably helped hurt Soviet morale almost as much as it fixed it. Furthermore, Faria also seems to overestimate the role of SMERSH units. While indeed responsible for slaughtering many deserters, the reality is far from what is depicted in such media as Enemy at the Gates. Geoffrey Roberts, in his book Stalin's Wars, writes that of the detainees arrested by these units,
3,980 were arrested, 1,189 were shot, 2,961 were sent to penal battalions or companies and 131,094 were returned to their units.
Faria insists that only Americans were driven by as sense of patriotism and civic duty, yet the same holds true for the Soviets, in spite of the monstrous actions of their government. Roberts states that Stalin's skill in tapping into Soviet patriotic fervor was essential to their victory, the patriotic messages providing a useful image of a united Soviet nation against a foreign menace.
Also mentioned are Filipino, Guatemalan, and other insurgents as proof of the importance of gun ownership. Once again, Faria makes more mistakes. He assumes that privately-owned firearms are what these groups used when it was also military-grade gear. The insurgents in the Philippines, meanwhile, operated even after strict gun laws were passed by president Marcos, and likely benefited from the jungle terrain. As for Guatemala, Faria seems to once again conflate organized insurgency with gun rights. The Guatemalan insurgents that held the regime back for decades received Soviet and Czech weapons that were smuggled through Communist states such as Nicaragua. The stereotypical patriot who owns guns to protect from an oppressive regime was not the kind of individual who fought against the government. Furthermore, many of these rebels were often peasants who were likely too poor to own firearms.
Overall, Faria misuses countless events to fit his narrative. His claims are so poorly constructed that they are almost impossible to support. Those that use historic events as basis often neglect to mention other factors, such as cultural differences, or history.
Sources:
On Gun Registration, the NRA, Adolf Hitler, and Nazi Gun Laws: Exploding the Gun Culture Wars (A Call to Historians) Bernard E. Harcourt
http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/by-type/yearbook/small-arms-survey-2007.html
https://www.britannica.com/place/Norway/World-War-II
Soviet Arms and Central American Turmoil, ALBERTO R. COLL
https://www.lawphil.net/executive/genogo1972/genor_6_1972.html
http://www.world-war-2.info/casualties/
https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-France-World-War-II/The-fall-of-France-June-5-25-1940
Blau, George E; THE GERMAN CAMPAIGNS IN THE BALKANS (SPRING 1941), 118
http://jpfo.org/filegen-a-m/deathgc.htm
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/armenian-genocide
https://blog.usni.org/posts/2020/05/24/reflections-on-memorial-day
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/battle-of-cambrai
Small Arms Survey: The Use and Perception of Weapons before and after Conflict: Evidence from Rwanda By Cécelle Meijer and Philip Verwimp
Small Arms Survey: How Many Weapons Are There in Cambodia? By Christina Wille
14/06/2000 - LAW N° 13/2000 OF 14/06/2000 MODIFYING THE DECREE-LAW N° 12/97 OF MAY, 1979 CONCERNING FIREARMS AND THEIR AMMUNITIONS
https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/445
https://www.anesi.com/ussbs02.htm#c
Alain Destexhe, Rwanda and Genocide in the Twentieth Century; Pg 47
https://www.businessinsider.com/switzerland-gun-laws-rates-of-gun-deaths-2018-2?op=1
http://www.pbs.org/thewaat_home_war_production.htm
https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-I
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-met-chicago-gun-laws-explainer-20171006-story.html
http://www.genocide-museum.am/eng/online_exhibition_8.php
https://www.britannica.com/event/Rwanda-genocide-of-1994/Genocide
https://www.armenian-genocide.org/genocide.html
http://lanic.utexas.edu/project/castro/db/1959/19590109.html
https://www.britannica.com/event/Hungarian-Revolution-1956
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/opinion/ben-carson-is-wrong-on-guns-and-the-holocaust.html?_r=0
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/09/guns-dont-kill-dictatorships-people-do/
Roberts, Geoffrey; Stalin's Wars From World War to Cold War, 1939-1953 pgs 22, 132
https://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/sudan
Volkman, Ernest 1995. "Our man in Havana. Cuban double agents 1961–1987" in Espionage: The Greatest Spy Operations of the Twentieth Century,
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/01/26/weekinreview/the-not-so-neutrals-of-world-war-ii.html
Roberts, Walter R. (1973). Tito, Mihailović and the Allies 1941–1945; pg 319
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lP70jPAqRs
https://thehistoryherald.com/articles/military-history/world-war-ii/aktion-rheinland/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Crisolli
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_of_Paris#FFI_uprising_(19%E2%80%9323_August))
https://www.historynet.com/french-resistance-resistant.htm
submitted by Someone-00 to badhistory [link] [comments]


2020.08.27 11:27 ketocheetohpuffs A Very Brief Rebuttal to those who voted NO on the removal of the TAP Monument


"We gotta be brave, we gotta be bold, and we gotta tell this story." - Lt. Gov Matt Pinnell at the Greenwood Rising groundbreaking ceremony August 21, 2020

Smoke a bowl, turn on some music and join me....
As my reality quickly shifted in March forcing me to become an eccentric hobbit, I had to totally bail on my Rocky Mountain powder chasing fantasies and learn to cope. I fed my outdoor addiction by taking extra long dog walks, mostly to my new favorite park in Tulsa, the beautiful mayhem that is Owen Park. I went there specifically to check out an old monument I had heard about online, the Tulsa Association of Pioneers Monument, or as the kids call it, the Back to Back Genocide Champions Trophy Monument, the B2BGCTM. I think this is one of the most interesting things in Tulsa, personally. It’s like a poetic mystery but painfully obvious at the same time. No one knows anything about it that I’ve ever talked to, and no one really wants to talk about it. It’s a classic Tulsa public secret.
Some would say, if there’s one thing Oklahoma does well it’s barbecue. That may be true, we do a mean que, but I’ve been to hundreds, and no barbecue I’ve ever been to, or ever heard of, besides this event, has ever been epic enough to call for a monument to be made in recognition of its attendees' greatness. The monument’s poetic timeline, from 1921-1964, coincides perfectly with the biggest act of racial violence in the US since the civil war, and the biggest piece of civil rights legislation ever signed. The date engraved into the marble monument, September 21, 1921, doesn't even match the newspaper article that talks about a similar barbecue, so that adds a layer of interest. Maybe there were two BBQ’s, maybe the marble slab typewriter typo’d the engraving on the surely mega expensive rock, or maybe the entire newspaper is incorrect. Additionally, this is not where the monument originally sat, nor are all the pieces currently displayed even original. It’s location adds an extra layer of fucketry, when you find out that the Indian Memorial in close proximity celebrating the three tribes borders, was there for fifteen years before the B2BGCTM was erected close by. Now that's a biggo fuck you if you ask me. Hold on, I’m trying to walk and type this on my phone but my idiot dog stopped and smelled something he had to pee on
In a time where I saw the local concert hall change its name from Brady Theater, the name Peter Mayo gave it, back to its original name, The Tulsa Theatre, and a time where I saw Tate Brady’s star removed from out front of the Cain’s, I began to become more curious about our city’s past. Hell, Oklahoma history in general, all of a sudden became overwhelmingly interesting. Especially now that we’re in Tulsa, MCN. So anyway, I took a walk to Owen Park and when I got there I was underwhelmed to say the least. A discolored marble monument with an engraving talking about a barbecue sat just out front of the Fire Station, between the Indian Memorial and a Children's Museum, and close by what is said to be “The Oldest House in Tulsa.” The park is sprawling with mature trees everywhere, a sweet little walking bridge, a random set of old concrete steps once used for getting into carriages, a really cool, and what I’m sure is under-used, mini amphitheatre. The pond was murky with excessive trash collecting where the drainage meets the water. My fishing club would be sad, but I saw fish in there as I walked the banks, so there’s that. There are fish in that pond, don’t let anyone tell you there’s not, especially not the people representing the neighborhood on a city committee. Those people may just not know anything. After making my rounds and seeing the haggard horseshoe pit and imaginary volleyball courts, I made my way back to the monuments at the entrance. The sun was hitting it just right, it totally looked like a dick. Sweet.
I walked up, read the engraving,

This stone marks the ground where "Old Timers"
who had lived in Tulsa and vicinity over
thirty years, met on Sept. 21, 1921,
at a Barbecue given by
Dr. Sam G. Kennedy and Dr. Jim Kennedy.
They all visited with old friends,
reminisced and organized the
"Tulsa Association of Pioneers"
to Commemorate and Perpetuate
the memory of those
"Sturdy Pioneers" who, by their
sacrafice and effort
helped to build a great Empire.

After finding Bynum’s and Brady’s name on the monument, someone pointed out the date, September 21, 1921. Wow, I thought, three and a half months after the most violent act of racial violence since the civil war and these people decided to have a barbeque to celebrate their championing of the city. Interesting. Why are there parentheses around “Sturdy Pioneer” and “Old Timers”? Who are these Kennedy people? Can JM Hall spell sacrifice or does sacrafice mean something totally different? He can’t spell and he got the date wrong? Jesus. What “great Empire” did they manage to build?
I went back to read about the time between the massacre and the barbecue. My heads are familiar with the days between, this is similar, but from blood to barbecue sauce. You can follow along if you want, break on thru to the other side with us as we turn the upside down inside out.
Before I mentally moved entirely back to 1921, and just read the daily paper like its red hot news fresh off the press everyday, I started with September 21, 1921 and checked out the Tulsa Daily World from that date. What I found was not a BBQ. What actually happened on September 21, 1921 was a state wide confederate reunion southern ball at Convention Hall, the building we now know as The Tulsa Theatre. Interesting. Confederate Reunion, I thought, that sounds like a nightmare. Turns out the State Wide Confederate Reunion of 1921 wasn’t the first confederate reunion hosted by Tulsa.
Just in case we gotta stop and talk about what the Civil War was about, it was definitely about slavery. It’s not that it wasn’t about states rights, it was just specifically about the states rights to own people. But if you tell the story a certain way long enough, the southern lost cause becomes history. So, we can move on...
In 1914, some 5000 confederate veterans camped out in Owen Park, but that was nothing compared to the National Confederate Reunion of 1918. Just look at this collectors edition Tulsa World. A quick who’s who for the heroes on the cover… top left is President of the Confederacy, Jefferson Davis. Tate Brady presided over the 1921 reunion with a custom gavel made from a tree from Davis’ estate in Biloxi, MS “The Beauvoir.” Story is, Davis would sit under that tree as he wrote the “south’s greatest book,” The Rise and Fall of the Confederacy. I’ve been to the Beauvoir, thanks Gramma and Grampa. Katrina killed that tree I’m sure, but maybe not. Top Right is General Robert E Lee, you recognize his name from the oh wait, it’s Council Oak Elementary now(Lt Gov Matt Pinnell’s School). “Black” Jack Pershing, not what he was actually called but I'm gonna church it up. People thought this man was so fucking good at being an American they made him his own rank in the military. I’m not joking, and they’ve never done that for anyone else. Nathan Bedford Forrest, bottom left, he ran the klan for a while but poetically is the namesake for Forrest Gump, to remind us that “sometimes things don’t make no sense.” Man of the Hour, Woodrow Wilson(Lt Gov Matt Pinnell’s School), front and center, Klansman loved him. For instance, proud klansman Charley Guthrie named his son after the bastard, we know him as Woody. President Wilson was communicated with directly from this reunion, and offered full support of the war from the grey coats. Of course we support it right? We’re a confederate oil production town in a war time economy. Honestly, look at that cover, you just gotta love the Gump / Guthrie irony right now.
Anyway, look through this paper, see how the city rolls out the red red carpet for these people. They pretty much make a Tulsa for Tesla video but way better. The Southern Memorial Association is here, check out their goals, which sound super familiar, especially the marble monument part. Businesses take out full page ads, half page ads, train rides are free into the city, there’s a fair, there’s a parade, movies are cheaper than they’ve ever been. Well, Majestic Theatre is only showing one movie, The Birth of a Nation, and it plays everyday for four days straight, 12 hours a day. This is a three hour movie originally entitled “The Klansman” playing back to back to back to back non-stop for back to back to back to back days, for never before seen prices. Wow. The parade, they say, extends for miles. They ask every single automobile owner in the city to make available their cars for the parade. Five hundred horses are gathered for this parade. They literally go on to say that their party is bigger than mardi gras. They gave away cars at the national reunion to several lucky racists.
In that newspaper, specifically, they tell a story about the “birth of our city,” if you will. From Little Acorns Big Oaks Grow. Read the story. These dudes are glorified as the fathers of our city, in a special edition of a paper that is glorifying the birth of a nation. They say in that paper, that yeah we know Tulsa has blown up in the past twenty years since its incorporation, but what will happen in the next five years will greatly overshadow everything that's been done. Oil game was crushing it, especially with the war time needs for oil, followed by the industrial explosion after WW1. Think about all the cars they made after the economy switched from wartime to peacetime production. Catalog purchasing became popular in this time. People were told to buy. And boy did they get everyone onto buying cars. They were booming, the oil business was pretty pretty pretty good. Have you walked thru these buildings in downtown tulsa, with their fuckin tunnels? These people weren't just living it up, they were setting it up.
Ok we gotta fast forward thru some real crazy times to get back to September 1921. But, let’s keep in mind the Red Summer of 1919 and obviously the Tulsa Race Massacre that happened just months before this reunion. Also, in August 1921, just six weeks before the reunion, and a couple months after the massacre, C A Ridley came through Tulsa to fully recruit new klansman at the convention hall. Anyway, the 1921 statewide confederate reunion seems to follow the blueprint from 1918, there’s free train rides, a fair, a parade, southern memorial association is there, there’s a ball at convention hall, again the city rolls out the red carpet.
On the 17th of September 1921, Sam Kennedy hosted a BBQ, you can read about it in the Tulsa Daily World the next day. That was a Saturday, that BBQ. The day before that, the free fair started and ran all the way until the 20th, which just so happens to be the same day the confederate reunion started its three day circle jerk, how conveniently timed. Notice who makes front page headlines the two days leading up to the fair kick off, showing off their powers of protection and also charitable goodwill (hint: it’s the klan). On September 21, 1921, the date on the monument, the confederate reunion held its southern ball at the convention hall.
The next day the confederates have their parade. They loved parades. This time it was mostly automobiles because the confederate veterans were getting too old, one old timer even fell and broke himself. Here is the route of the parade, and a big HD map if you wanna try and visualize it. I imagine on a map it makes the shape of a stumpy dick, just like the monument, but I could be wrong. There’s an especially fucked up line in there where two grey coats are talking about how great of a city Tulsa has become, so much so they got their shoes shined free of charge on the way into the ball. This great city, just three and a half months prior, burned 40 city blocks to the ground after an incident "started" by a black shoe shiner.
So, here we are, the end of a massive statewide confederate reunion, It goes down like this… Confederate Idiot Voice (Donald Trump Jr will work)…”before we all go home I think it’s important to all be on the same page about something. We can’t let anyone talk poorly of the glories of the south. When we go home, we need to be sure to use all means possible to collaborate with the sons and daughters of the confederate veterans, and the historical societies, and the public libraries, and those who make school curriculums, and we need to be sure to go ahead and filter everyone’s history, so they know what the story is. Anything that talks poorly of the glories and the pride of the old south, gone. All 1100 camps, nationwide, purge the shit out of history. Make it so bad a non-American has to tell us how fuckin upside down we have it a hundred years from now. And while we’re at it, let’s be sure to continue “to perpetuate the memories” of those who got the story straight from the start. Maybe even cast into stone, history as it should be remembered. Because why the fuck else would you engrave some shit into marble, right fellas. Here Here.”
I don't think the klan was anywhere close to its most powerful point in Tulsa’s history in 1921. These guys had such a following they had to build a brand new 3000 person klavern, just to keep everyone under one roof. They called it Beno Hall, as in “Be no DigitalHypnosis or u/Blue-Steele in this building.” Right there on Main Street, just north of Cain’s, on the other side of the over pass. “During the Depression, the building housed a speak-easy, then a skating rink, then a lumberyard, and finally a dance hall before radio evangelist Steve Pringle turned it into the Evangelistic Temple of the First Pentecostal Church. In his first revival meeting, Pringle introduced a little-known Enid preacher by the name of Oral Roberts, who worked his animated, faith-healing magic on the bare lot next door. Roberts impressed in the tent atmosphere and preached with his cohort inside the vast auditorium once known as Beno Hall. His fire and brimstone was a fitting bookend to the fiery crusades of the Klan.” Shoutout ORU graduate, Lt Gov Matt PInnell. Heard ‘fitting bookend.’
Wasn’t until 1935 the TAP decided to make a monument to perpetuate the memories of their association. Now, the monument says the association started in 1921 but didn’t allow membership until 1934. This is a total and flat out assumption I am making, but I would be willing to bet they bought that marble phallus with some sort of new member fees. Anyway, they presented it to Sam Kennedy, who kept it at his farm. There were just two “shafts,” the tall one with the engraving and the little pretty perfect picnic placemat piece. The large horizontal slab with all the names was added later. Can you imagine buying the Kennedy mansion in 2020 and those two pieces of marble are in the backyard? Like in some alternate universe where the original shit stayed where it originally was, without being moved to a public park, and then additional rock slabs and storylines added to it. It hits a lot different when you think about it like that huh. When its not in "Tulsa's first park," next to the "oldest house in Tulsa."
It wasn’t until after Kennedy died, that the monument was eventually moved to Owen Park in segregated Tulsa, 1950. In 1947, The Association of Pioneers “gifted” an acre of land to the city on the terms that the monument could be erected there, and they could hold their annual picnic in the park, “Old-Timers Day.” City was like “bet.” The Association of Pioneers came back a couple months later and gave the city something like four more acres. To be honest, I don't think the monument sits where it’s supposed to sit, technically, if we look back at the 1947 Tulsa World article about placement. Anyway, it's there now, becoming more discolored every year, white naked ladies popping up late every summer. Ask anyone about it, guaranteed, they've never heard about it. If they have heard of it, you're probably talking to me, or pope, who’s also me so….
And this is the reality we’re in now. The shadow reality built for us, by people who gave not two stinky fucks about anything except acquiring polarizingly massive amounts of generational wealth, at the expense of everyone else, especially anyone in their way, especially Indians and especially Black people. This shit still exists, we see it everyday.
It's 2020, it's corona and quarantine and protest and klanny monuments sittin on stolen land, Tulsa, MCN.
But you know what’s dope as fuck, besides this 24 hour happy hour hyperlink sauce buffet, Tulsa is “our” town. It was an “old town” to people in the 1500’s… it’s been here nawmsayin, we’ve been here, as humans. People have been here in this spot for a very long time, and will continue to be if we don't kill ourselves off. What’s cool as Hell to me, is what other spot can say all that shit. This is some pretty radical shit. And here we are, the buckle on the unbuckled bible belt, the city, a contradiction of itself. Here we are trying to figure out how to move forward and how to unite people with this information. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Our common enemy is how history is told.
We gotta get the story straight, so we can start to work together. It’s time for us to use all means possible. All fucking means possible. They did. It’s time to collaborate with historical societies, and libraries, and museums, and school curriculum, and cultural centers, and concert halls, and public speakers, and public parks, and radio stations, and websites, and tv networks, and social media, and art galleries, and city committees and commissions and fuckin everything. It’s time for a full hard switch or we’re fucked. We’re gonna have to re-learn history but our kids shouldn’t have to.
AND, We should celebrate this awakening, because this is necessary. It’s time to un-learn and re-imagine. How’s this hot take… We are so super lucky to have something so tangible and mystified as this monument to be able to rally this message around. And of course we would have something so poetically perfect because this is it. This is why we’re “the center of the universe.” We’re gonna be in the national spotlight next year, just let that sink in for a little bit. How is our city going to address all this? I want my city to act in a way I can be proud of, and show people, Tulsa does it right.
Look, I’m done fucking around here, who’s with me besides flipper here? Lets move that fuckin rock into a museum, where it belongs, so that its story can be told in the great detail that it deserves. Let’s plant a bunch of trees and flowers in its place, ‘100 trees for 100 years.’ Give the park back to the people, give it back to the Earth. Make it a place of love and reconciliation, a place of understanding and empathy and community. No more monument, no more “Old-Timer’s Day.” That's just ridiculous. And move it out of the fuckin park soon so the Indian Community can enjoy their re-dedication of the Indian Memorial in peace. Let’s do this shit.
This is our Tulsa. This land, is our land, nawmsayin. We gotta come together, and we can come together in the park.
DigitalHypnosis, you can come too, you’re my pink piggy boy.
submitted by ketocheetohpuffs to tulsa [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 16:39 luftikuz ¿Cuál es la foto más icónica del Uruguay?

Mirando este video en YouTube, el presentador define una serie de criterios para elegir la foto más representativa de cada país y da ejemplos de USA, Canada.
Según este presentador el criterio para elegir una foto icónica Nacional es:
  1. Es una foto bien específica de alguien o algo bien específico.
  2. Es sinónimo con la cosa que representa (es la típica foto que se utiliza siempre para representar ese concepto en libros escolares, en Wikipedia, en Google Image, etc.)
  3. La foto ha sido sentimental y trasciende el medio (La foto está reproducida en estatuas, billetes o monedas, posters, murales, remeras, tazas, etc).
Con estos criterios en mente, a mi se me han ocurrido algunas fotos que pueden ser icónicas del Uruguay:
1) Maracanazo, 2) Militares en el parlamento, 3) Retorno a la democracia 1985
Obviamente me gustaría escuchar sus sugerencias y opiniones. Buen Domingo!
submitted by luftikuz to uruguay [link] [comments]


2020.08.15 17:26 Chti_59 Conjoint interdit, masque, déclenchement : l’explosion des violences obstétricales

Conjoint interdit, masque, déclenchement : l’explosion des violences obstétricales
La pandémie de covid-19 a aggravé les violences obstétricales lors des accouchements pendant cette période. Une enquête menée par le collectif Tout·es contre les Violences gynécologiques et obstétricales auprès de 2700 femmes ayant accouché entre le 15 février et le 31 mai 2020, au cœur de la pandémie, a mis en lumière une nette aggravation des violences faites aux femmes dans les maternités. Trois formes de violences se sont ajoutées aux violences obstétricales systémiques : l’interdiction de présence d’un ou une accompagnant·e, l’obligation du port du masque et une augmentation des déclenchements non médicalement justifiés.
https://preview.redd.it/mr8a7shhp6h51.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c77c0b22532713bb2859ba4a5c05bdc7c2bdd4ba

L’interdiction de la présence du ou de la conjoint·e

Cette enquête a été lancée suite à des appels à l’aide de futurs parents désemparés face aux annonces abruptes de maternités ayant décidé de façon arbitraire d’interdire au futur père d’assister à la naissance de son enfant. Elle relève d’ailleurs un “tsunami émotionnel” chez les futures mères engendré par la désorganisation des maternités. Pour 69 % d’entre elles, le stress accru était lié à l’incertitude quant à la présence de l’accompagnant.e.
L’enquête montre que seulement 37 % des femmes ont pu avoir leur compagnon ou une personne de confiance à leurs côtés dès leur arrivée à la maternité et pendant tout leur accouchement. 33 % des femmes n’ont pu être rejointes qu’à leur arrivée en salle de naissance, c’est-à-dire au moment de la phase active du travail (et pas dès leur arrivée à la maternité). 15 % ont pu être rejointes seulement pendant la phase d’expulsion (au moment de la sortie du bébé). Pour 11 % des naissances, les accompagnant·es ont été totalement interdit·es et les femmes ont dû accoucher seules, face à des soignants en général inconnus.
Aucune de ces maternités n’a prévu un renforcement de l’accompagnement des femmes privées d’une présence soutenante par une personne proche. Au contraire, de nombreux témoignages montrent que la période de la pandémie a encore plus mis le personnel sous pression, le rendant d’autant moins disponible pour accompagner correctement les parturientes.
Les femmes témoignent : « Moralement ce fut extrêmement difficile que le papa ne soit pas là pendant le travail »
« Accompagnant non autorisé pendant la phase de travail : je me suis sentie très triste et angoissée de commencer l’accouchement sans le papa, le travail a été long et douloureux car déclenché, difficile de bien gérer la douleur dans ces conditions. »
« On nous a volé ces moments qui nous appartenaient. Je suis très affectée psychologiquement même 5 semaines après la naissance de notre bébé. »
La science est pourtant formelle : une présence continue améliore les résultats lors de l’accouchement. La revue de référence Cochrane concluait en 2017 : “Le soutien continu pendant le travail peut améliorer les résultats chez les femmes et les nourrissons, notamment en menant à une augmentation des accouchements par voie basse spontanés, à une réduction de la durée du travail, et à une diminution des accouchements par césarienne, des accouchements par voie basse avec assistance instrumentale, de l’utilisation d’une analgésie, de l’utilisation d’une analgésie régionale, des faibles scores d’Apgar à cinq minutes et des sentiments négatifs concernant le vécu de l’accouchement”.
Les dommages sur les femmes sont énormes. 75 % des femmes ayant répondu à l’enquête présentent en moyenne trois signes de dépression post-partum ou de syndrome de stress post-traumatique. L’absence d’accompagnant est probablement ce qui a le plus porté atteinte à la santé mentale de la mère. L’enquête montre une augmentation de près de 15 points (85 % au lieu de 70 %) des signes de stress post-traumatique ou de dépression post-partum en cas d’absence de l’accompagnant.
Au-delà de l’impact direct sur les mères et leur bébé, l’interdiction de présence d’un ou une proche lors de l’accouchement pose une véritable question sociétale. Si nous devrons collectivement nous interroger sur l’état de notre société dans laquelle des milliers de personnes sont mortes du coronavirus dans la solitude, il est utile de rappeler que, dans le cas de l’accouchement, il s’agit de femmes en parfaite santé qui se sont vue privées de conditions correctes pour mettre leur enfant au monde, ce qui n’est pas non plus une maladie. Les témoignages le montrent : « Le fait que le papa soit parti 2h après l’accouchement a été très dur et violent émotionnellement… J’ai beaucoup pleuré car il me manquait énormément et j’étais très fatiguée de gérer notre bébé sans lui. On a l’impression de s’être fait voler nos premiers jours de jeunes parents. C’est très dur à encaisser. ». Une autre femme ajoute : « Encore une fois en France, le rôle essentiel du papa n’a pas été compris, il n’est pas facultatif. On gardera l’injustice de nos moments de bonheur volés pour toujours. »
Enfin, cette mesure, comme toutes celles liées à l’accouchement, montre l’arbitraire et l’incohérence qui règnent dans maternités. D’une part, ces dernières ont pris des mesures très différentes les unes des autres, sans se baser sur les recommandations scientifiques ni sur l’intérêt premier des femmes qui vivent un événement exceptionnel qu’est la mise au monde de leur enfant. D’autre part, elles n’ont pas tenu compte du fait que chaque futur père qui a été confiné pendant plusieurs semaines avec sa compagne enceinte avait a priori le même niveau de (non-)contamination qu’elle et ne présentait donc pas plus de risque pour les soignants.
Au comble de l’incohérence se situent les maternités qui n’avaient aucun remords à éjecter les futurs pères des maternités et les priver totalement de rencontre avec leur enfant jusqu’à la sortie de la maternité, et qui ont pourtant placé des jeunes mères avec leurs nouveaux-nés dans des chambres doubles sans s’inquiéter des risques de contamination entre deux familles étrangères l’une à l’autre.

L’obligation du port du masque

L’enquête relève que 42 % des femmes ont été obligées de porter un masque pendant tout leur accouchement. Cette mesure est presque incroyable lorsque l’on connaît l’importance de la respiration lors d’un accouchement.
Il est étonnant qu’une telle mesure se soit imposée sans discernement de la part de sages-femmes et d’obstétriciens et qu’elle ne fasse pas l’objet d’un questionnement au sein de la société. Si, du jour au lendemain, on imposait le port du masque à 42 % des participants à un marathon ou des athlètes aux jeux olympiques, imaginerait-on que personne ne se questionne sur les performances sportives dues port du masque imposé ? Accoucher représente pourtant un effort physique comparable à celle d’un marathonien ou d’un sportif de haut niveau. Comment une telle mesure a-t-elle pu germer dans la tête de personnes dont le métier est censé être celui d’accompagner correctement les femmes qui donnent naissance ?
Le port du masque a clairement eu un impact délétère sur les femmes. De nombreux témoignages de l’enquête montrent des femmes qui ont vécu cette situation comme un véritable calvaire. « Au cours de l’accouchement, le port du masque pendant la poussée a été un frein pour la prise d’air et une bonne poussée. Le médecin a donc dû avoir recours aux forceps ». « Accouchement anxiogène dû au masque ». « Révision utérine avec port d’un masque obligatoire, inhumain je trouve »
En outre, le port du masque est corrélé à une augmentation du pourcentage d’actes médicaux ou de complications : expression abdominale, fièvre, péridurale alors que le projet était de s’en passer, expression utérine, extraction instrumentale (forceps, cuillère, ventouse), perfusion d’ocytocine pour augmenter les contractions, déchirure du périnée.
L’enquête n’a néanmoins pas pu déterminer si le masque était la cause directe de ces complications ou si les maternités ayant imposé le port du masque étaient des maternités plus interventionnistes et donc moins respectueuses de la physiologie de l’accouchement et des femmes en général.
Comme pour la présence du conjoint, le port du masque a été imposé de façon arbitraire et sans cohérence. Certains CHU situés dans le Grand Est, c-à-d au cœur du foyer de la pandémie, ont permis aux femmes d’accoucher sans masque, tandis que des cliniques privées qui n’accueillaient aucun patient covid-19 et qui étaient situées dans des zones à très faible de contamination l’ont pourtant imposé. L’enquête montre aussi que sur les 10 femmes testées positivement au covid-19, deux ont accouché sans masque. De nombreuses équipes soignantes ont donc trouvé le moyen d’éviter aux parturientes de porter un masque, ce qui est la preuve que respecter les femmes est techniquement et médicalement possible.

Augmentation des déclenchements non médicalement justifiés

Le troisième enseignement de l’enquête porte sur le nombre de déclenchements directement liés à la pandémie.
25 % des accouchements ont été déclenchés alors que ce taux était de 22 % dans l’enquête périnatale de 2016. Selon la présente enquête, 7 % des déclenchements ont été présentés aux femmes par les professionnels de santé comme une nécessité liée au covid-19. De nombreux témoignages montrent que ces déclenchements ont été imposés par l’équipe soignante pour des raisons d’organisation du service ou comme une condition pour autoriser la présence du conjoint : « J’ai souhaité un déclenchement pour être sûre d’avoir un accompagnant en salle d’accouchement ». «J’ai accepté un déclenchement dont je ne voulais pas ». « Beaucoup moins de flexibilité et déclenchement obligatoire ».
Or, le déclenchement d’un accouchement est un acte médical lourd, qui va souvent à l’encontre de l’aspiration de la future mère. Il entraîne un risque accru de césarienne. L’enquête le confirme puisque sur les 16,7 % de naissances par césarienne, 5,2 % ont été pratiquées en urgence suite à un déclenchement (pour 6,7 % des 70 % d’accouchements – donc bien plus nombreux – qui ont débuté spontanément).

Les tentatives de résistance des femmes

Face à ces conditions d’accouchement très dégradées, près de 13 % des femmes ont envisagé de changer de lieu d’accouchement. Parmi celles-ci, un quart (25,8 %) ont eu l’envie d’accoucher à domicile en étant accompagnées d’une sage-femme (AAD). 6 % ont envisagé un accouchement non accompagné (ANA), c’est-à-dire chez elles sans la présence d’un.e professionnel.le de santé.
Au final, seule une partie d’entre elles ont pu concrétiser leur souhait. 1,1 % ont accouché à domicile avec une sage-femme et 0,5 %, à domicile de façon non accompagnée.
Il est à noter que l’engouement pour l’accouchement à domicile pendant la pandémie est observé dans l’ensemble du monde occidental (par exemple à New-York et en Suède). Les études scientifiques les plus sérieuses montrent qu’accoucher à domicile avec une sage-femme présente pas plus de risque pour les grossesses à bas risque (voir Coronavirus : l’urgence de soutenir l’accouchement à domicile). Pour toutes les femmes ne présentant de problème médical particulier, se tenir à l’écart des maternités pendant la pandémie, au vu tant des risques objectifs de contamination que des conditions dégradées de prise en charge, pouvait représenter un vrai choix rationnel.
Malheureusement, la France fait figure d’exception parmi les Etats occidentaux en menant une véritable chasse aux sorcières contre les sages-femmes qui accompagnent les femmes de ce choix (voir mon article précédent). Cette situation conduit de plus en plus de femmes à accoucher seules chez elles. L’un des mérites de cette enquête est de fournir, pour la première fois, une mesure statistique du phénomène.

Les violences obstétricales ordinaires

Outre les mesures portant atteinte aux femmes liées directement à la pandémie, l’enquête a mis en lumière la permanence de violences obstétricales systémiques ordinaires.
La loi Kouchner sur le consentement avant chaque acte médical n’est toujours pas respecté. Seules moins de la moitié des femmes (42,8 %) ont eu la possibilité de donner leur consentement avant chaque acte, toutes interventions confondues. 72 % des épisiotomies ont été pratiquées sans consentement.
L’enquête révèle aussi une série de mauvaises pratiques pendant l’accouchement que l’on qualifie de violences obstétricales :
74 % des femmes n’ont pas eu le droit de manger
34 % des femmes n’ont pas eu le droit de boire
23 % ont été confrontées à un clampage précipité du cordon ombilical de leur bébé
13 % des femmes ont eu une péridurale défaillante
3 % des femmes ont subi une expression abdominale, pratique dangereuse que la Haute Autorité de Santé demande d’abandonner depuis 2007
22 femmes se sont vu refuser la péridurale
21 femmes se sont vu imposer la péridurale
3 femmes ont subi le « point du mari »

La non-remise en question des soignants

Le plus étonnant est la rapidité avec laquelle des soignants censés être au service des femmes ont pu mettre en place des mesures arbitraires, incohérentes et néfastes aux futures mères, et contraires à l’état de la science sur les conditions d’accouchement.
Encore aujourd’hui, en confrontant certaines sages-femmes et médecins aux résultats de l’enquête qui montre une explosion des dépressions post-partum et des syndromes de stress post-traumatique (75 % des femmes qui ont accouché montrent en moyenne trois signes de l’échelle d’Edimbourg), nombreux sont celles et ceux qui continuent à justifier ces mesures au nom de leur propre confort et de leur propres peurs.
Les conditions d’accouchement pendant la pandémie ont une fois de plus mis en lumière les conditions déplorables dans laquelle les femmes doivent accoucher en France. Comme je le démontre depuis des années dans mes billets sur mon blog Marie accouche là, les femmes ne sont pas considérées comme des êtres humains dotés de raison et de discernement dont il faut respecter l’intégrité physique et psychique, mais comme des corps dont on peut disposer à sa guise dans un système industriel.

L’urgence de repenser les conditions d’accouchement

Les résultats de cette enquête ont été présentés à la Secrétaire d’État aux droits des femmes Marlène Schiappa qui les a accueillis très positivement. Elle a mis en place un groupe de travail intégrant les représentants des sages-femmes, des médecins et des usagères. Espérons que la nouvelle Ministre aux droits des femmes Elisabeth Moreno poursuive cette ambition et que le Ministre de la Santé Olivier Veran s’intéresse lui aussi enfin à la question de la naissance.
Ce rapport a été également présenté, à l’initiative de la Députée Marie-Pierre Rixain, à la Délégation aux droits des femmes de l’Assemblée nationale. Il est urgent que les politiques s’emparent réellement de ce sujet dans cette ère post-metoo.
Aujourd’hui, la première cause de mortalité maternelle n’est plus la fièvre puerpérale ni l’hémorragie de la délivrance. La première cause de mortalité maternelle est le suicide, notamment en raison des mauvaises conditions dans lesquelles les femmes doivent accoucher. Il est inconcevable qu’au 21e siècle, des dizaines de milliers de femmes soient encore maltraitées au moment où elles mettent leurs enfants au monde.
Sources :
Pour consulter le rapport : Rapport d’enquête sur la grossesse, l’accouchement et le post-partum pendant l’épidémie de covid-19
Pour consulter la carte qui reprend l’ensemble des témoignages de l’enquête associés aux maternités : Enquête Nationale sur la Naissance pendant la pandémie de Covid 19 par le collectif @TCVOG
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2020.08.15 17:00 Surt3p Quanto deve ceder a um relacionamento?

Em 2016 eu conheci uma menina em um aplicativo de relacionamentos, (vamos chamar de Ruivinha) eu com 16 anos e ela me dizia que tinha 16 anos também e eu realmente gostei dela, ruiva, gente boa, dava atenção e engraçada. E depois de meses de conversas era fato que estávamos gostando um do outro, tanto pelas palavras quanto o tempo que dávamos um ao outro, e realmente gostei muito dela, e até que chegou um momento que os dois estavam meio 🔥 e a conversa foi realmente mudando de direção. Depois de muitas conversas e fotos +18 (ironia pq os dois eram menores mas ok kkk) estava um clima bom, e realmente queria a conhecer pessoalmente e tudo mais mas ela sempre dizia que a família era muito fechada e não a permitia sair, mas ela me atentava e mesmo assim tentávamos sair ou de um jeito se encontrar. E eu ocupado com curso Tecnico e colégio fui me afastando aos poucos para focar nos estudos, mas mesmo assim querendo realmente conhecer ela porque gostava. Até que um dia meio que tudo ficou confuso, quando ela mandou umas fotos repetidas +18 e com legenda diferente e tipo nem fazia sentido ela ter mandado aquilo para mim naquela hora. E então descobri que ela realmente tava meio brincando comigo e mais uns 5, e então descobri no mesmo dia que ela tinha 13 anos e iria fazer 14 e eu fiquei realmente confuso e preocupado (e não ela não tinha feição tão jovem e corpo de menina nova, e todas as redes sociais estavam mais velha e até por ligação a voz e vídeo o jeito dava a entender que era mais velha mesmo) e fiz umas das coisas que mais me arrependi na vida porque fiquei com ciúmes e com raiva, criei um Google drive do 0 upei as fotos dela e mandei com um link para a avó e a mãe dela falando o seguinte: “Eu gosto muito dela, nossas idades são diferentes e nada impede de no futuro realmente termos uma coisa séria com mais maturidade, mas eu realmente quero que vocês deem atenção porque ela está se expondo muito na internet e isso pode vazar e conhecendo bem sei que isso pode acabar mal.” A mãe dela me xingou e falou que eu era um cuzao a vó dela me pediu perdão não sei porque, e ficou preocupada e a menina me xingou muiiiito mas muito e no final tudo se acalmou. Passou se uns anos e ela me chamou de novo em meados do final de 2017 e eu tinha terminado o ensino médio e um relacionamento que tive também e eu e a Ruivinha viramos amigos realmente, ela tem muitos problemas psicológicos e eu sempre ajudei como amigo e tudo mais e realmente curtia a amizade nossa, até mesmo que nossas idades era meio diferentes mas ela me respeitava muito e o que tinha acontecido ficou para trás e virou uma amizade tranquila. Mas no final do ano de 2019 mudou muita coisa, ela tava com 16 anos e eu com 19 e ela deu muita moral, e eu me interessei por ela, tínhamos todos mudado muito e eu imaginei que estávamos mais maduros, e um belo dia ela me chamou para comprar material junto com ela, e eu fui na casa dela, conheci os avós que me amam até hoje e mandam figurinha todos os dias kkkkk, a mãe dela também que surpreendentemente gostou muito de mim, e foi um primeiro encontro totalmente diferente mas eu gostei da pessoa que eu encontrei, ela realmente tinha mudado muita coisa, e foi indo assim por vários finais de semana consecutivos, e estávamos em um relacionamento sem nada oficializado, eu conheci toda a família ajudava em o que era preciso, e gostava de estar inserido na família mas umas coisas do relacionamento me deixavam meio intrigado, tipo pela internet ela era muiito 🔥 e juntos ela era outra pessoa, ou o fato dela não gostar muito de beijos e também ter preguiça para qualquer coisa que envolva sair, não demonstrar afeto, ser meio seca as vezes e não termos muitos momentos casal, mas foi isso por 4 meses até o início da quarentena e nós brigarmos por um motivo fútil, estava a 2 anos desempregado apenas fazendo uns bicos, e eu fui contratado em um emprego booom, e eu fiquei feliz com isso que estava lutando a tempos e eu chamei ela para vir em casa comemorar cmg, comer uma pizza com minha família e tudo mais, e depois ver um filme a sós, um momento nosso, e ela me disse a seguinte frase “você só pensa em me comer” “só quer sexo” e eu sem entender nada, ouvi muiita merda (detalhe nunca tínhamos transado antes e eu sou super delicado com esse assunto até por nunca ter acontecido) até aquela história das fotos foi revivida e eu me explodi, cansei disso e terminei com raiva pq ela não sabia o que tava acontecendo comigo depois desse tempo todo saindo da depressão e ter conseguido arrumar um emprego e na hora de comemorar ela me dizer isso. Me magoou muito isso e até hoje não me desce, mas no outro dia parei para pensar e queria conversar disse que não queria terminar realmente mas queria que ela entendesse meu lado, e ela surtou que um dia eu termino no outro quero voltar, não voltamos mas ficou um clima de romance voltando, era apenas se encontrar que rolava algo, mas depois foi meses sem poder ver ela, sem ligação, momentos instável no relacionamento eu querendo ver ela mas nunca era possível e a desculpa de quarentena para mim e churrasco em família todos os finais de semana, mas eu tava conseguindo fazer ela vir em casa no meu aniversário pq realmente estava com sdds dela e é uma data bem especial, (minha família fez o teste para umas coisas e para que eu pudesse ir buscar ela no meu aniversário “dia que estou escrevendo que foi por água a abaixo qualquer animo para esse dia”) e uma semana antes do meu aniversário eu tentando reconquistar ela todos os dias, sendo quem sou e tentando ser bom para ela (muitas vezes fodendo com meu psicológico) e eu descubro que sou um brinquedo que ela usava para destrair e que não era nada mais e que mesmo ela dizendo uma coisa ela tava sentindo outra, e que eu tudo que eu tava fazendo por uma história de 4 anos foi em vão. Brigamos feio e depois que eu desisti de tudo e falei o que realmente tava sentindo e fiz ela se achar um monstro só mostrando coisas que ela fazia e nem se tocava disso, tem indiretas até hoje, eu surpreendentemente estou bem, tenho muitas saudades dos momentos bons mas prefiro meu bem estar mental.
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2020.08.10 17:08 Superfan234 Electoral Crisis in Bolivia: The Complete story

In a previous post, I answered the most commons questions and misconceptions about the Conflict in Bolivia
With this post my objective is much more ambitious: To explain once and for all , the Bolivian Crisis to Neoliberal
It is a massive task, for sure. But I think the final work lives up to the expectations
Of course, massive thanks to u/thebolivianguy. He helped me a ton with details I was honestly not aware of, give his inside thoughts from inside the country, and brought almost all the main News Sources you will find in this post. Kudos to him for the support!
What role did the OAS have? Was it really the United States the ones who ousted Evo Morales? Was there really Electoral manipulation? How the Opposition took over the country?
Let's find out ;)

The Original Sin: The Controversial Plebiscite of 2016

If I need to give a specific date to understand the turmoil events of 2019, without a doubt we must go back to 2016, to the Plebicite of February 21. In this Plebiscite, Evo Morales Aima called on the Bolivian population to vote for a constitutional reform allowing him to be elected for the 2020-2025 presidential term. By a tight margin (51% against re-eleccion vs 49% in favor) Bolivians decided to prevent another term for Evo Morales in 2019 [*]
Evo Morales, after 13 years of thunderous electoral victories, had to accept defeat. Until then, he enjoyed unparalleled popularity in Bolivia, keeping the country with a stable economy [*] and together with his Party (MAS) he controlled all the powers of the State. It took him a few days, but reluctantly, he ends up accepting his loss
However, a few months later, Morales would appeal to the Constitutional Court for a second opinion. In 2017, in a highly controversial ruling, the Court considered the prohibition of indefinite re-election, limited the Humans Rights of the President. As a result, Evo could stand for re-election as many times as he wished to[*]
The ruling was naturally strongly criticized by the opposition. And, in hindsight , it became the biggest political mistake Evo Morales has ever made

The Consequences of Indefinite Re-Election

For more than a decade, Evo enjoyed great popularity and appreciation by varied sectors of the population. Not only the "common people", but also Bolivian businessmen, who viewed with good eyes the stability and economic growth Bolivia had experienced, something extremely rare in that country. These times of prosperity had reduced the Opposition to small unpopular group, with multitude of internal conflicts
But extremely partisan decision of the Constitutional Tribunal allowed Opposition politicians, who shared little to nothing with each other, to sit together and defend themselves against a common enemy. In time, civil communities would join the political efforts, and together, they would be able to unleash protests and demonstrations throughout the country, capitalizing on the political discontent of the Bolivian People
The OAS, on the contrary, would not condemn the decision of the Constitutional Court. On the contrary, the president of the OAS expressly traveled to Bolivia to support the indefinite election of Evo Morales. [*]. For those who have heard of the Bolivian Crisis in mass media this may sound unusual, but in fact there is a quite convincing explanation. However, let's not beat around this bush just yet
I am going to be extremely specific: There are 3 central points crucial to understand the Bolivian crisis (I'm going to list them because we will constantly return to them)
Evo's wishes for indefinite re-election resulted in three critical problems
  • 1) Political Union of the Opposition: Parties and Civil Communities that shared little or nothing with each other, put aside their political differences in order to defeat Evo
  • 2) General mistrust of the People: The Rebirth of the Dictatorships of Venezuela (~ 2017) and Nicaragua (~ 2018), became a gloomy omen for Bolivians. Both regimes were consolidated through electoral farces. So the proper tally of the votes became absolutely crucial
  • 3) Antagonism with Latin America: A big majority of LATAM Leaders, for the most part, was seeking a change of government in Venezuela at any cost. Bolivia's fierce support to Venezuela, could be a fundamental obstacle to overthrowing Maduro
The combination of these 3 factors, added to the generalized perception of Evo Morales as a Corrupt Politician, was the explosive mixture that led to the general fear of electoral manipulation in Bolivia
The massive protests, and this is important to remember, were not to support a particular opposition candidate. They were against the (justified) fear that Evo installed in the Bolivian population about falling into a Crisis similar to the one Venezuela was living

Days before the Election

By early October 2019, the political tension could be feel in the air. Three years of attempts to avoid Evo's re-election had failed legally, but electorally, they had succeeded in an unprecedented way Since 2005, Morales had won by landslides all the presidential elections he had participated. In 2005, he had beaten Jorge Quiroga 54% vs 29%. In 2009 he beat Manfred Reyes 64% vs 27%, in 2014 he beat Samuel Doria 61% vs 24. Evo's popularity, in principle, was virtually unbeatable
But a partial defeat in the municipal elections of 2015[*] and mainly his defeat in the 2016 Plebiscite, raised doubts about his ability to win a new presidential elections
Problems were nothing to shrug off. Morales presented in 2019 the same Political Project he had for over 13 years: a Conservative-Social Democracy with an indigenous mix. Against him, Carlos Mesa, his main political rival, presented an almost identical project, with the additional “plus” of not having 13 years of corruption scandals and worn-out Populism accompanying Evo
Citizens who felt comfortable with Evo's Bolivarian model could feel confident Mesa have the vision to continue the years of prosperity, and at the same time, detoxify the institutions of the State from rampant corruption. It was, by all accounts, a great opportunity for political change in the country
As the Election approached, the opinion polls became increasingly grim for Evo. He was projected to reach only 37% of the vote in the First Round, far from the ~ 60% he achieved in the 2014 elections[*]
To top it off, Chi Hyun and Oscar Ortiz (the other two strong opposition candidates) appear, in the event of a Ballot, closer to supporting Carlos Mesa than Evo. Capturing those votes in the Second round, would be a very complex task
Although the situation might look bleak for the Government there was, in fact, a chance to win. In Bolivia, the candidate who obtains more than 40% of the votes (and exceeds the second candidate by 10%) can be elected as winner in the First Round
This way, Evo marginally win in the First round, thus avoiding a second Ballot. Of course, the fact Evo could win by a margin of ~ 1%, only increased the social pressure on the correct tall of votes The Opposition Politicians and Media also echoed this concern, and months before the elections, they were already calling for citizens to protect the results, accusing the Government of fabricating an electoral fraud [*][*][*]

Elections Day

The day everyone was waiting for finally arrived. At the Sunday of October 20, citizens of the 9 Departments of Bolivia were called to vote at the polls, without any mayor complications at first
After a relatively quiet morning, Bolivians prepared for the results. In Bolivia, the electoral court supervises three different types of counting
  • Boca de Urna(*): quite unaccurate, but reflects the immediate moments after the vote
  • Quick Count (TREP): which allows to know approximate results in a few hours [*]
  • Final Count: official results, which usually take a couple of days
It was clear that the winner would be defined by mere decimals. And possibly, the last votes would come from rural areas, where Evo remained as great favorite, but little polls to clarity for how much At night, Bolivians were nervously waiting for the final results of the count. In mere minutes, they would know the results of 4 years of political conflict. And suddenly, without any prior notice, the Electoral Tribunal stops the vote count
The opposition's alarms quickly went off, and fiercely, they asked the electoral court an explanation for the delay
The Electoral Tribunal, without giving it much importance to it, give vague and really confusing reasons to excuse itself[*]. Although at the beginning it was attributed (informally) to technical problems, the Electoral Tribunal ended up reporting that stopping the quick count was "planned in advance" [*] and that the final results would eventually be known
If this process was really planned or not, the doubt was enough to light the fuse of the discontent and mistrust the entire country was experiencing. Quickly, citizens began to protest at the headquarters of the Electoral Tribunal [*] , demanding the vote counting be resumed
The OAS, the European Union and the United States expressed their concern about the suspension of the count, and sent statements requesting explanations from the government[*]

Days after the election

On Monday October 21, the Electoral Tribunal resumed the vote counting. To the discontent of the Opposition (and the joy of the Government), the final toll was clear: Morales had won in the first round, and MAS maintained control of both the Upper House and the Lower House of the Congress
This only infuriated the Opposition population, who saw the change in trend and Government secrecy as a clear attempt to manipulate the data. Protests began in front of the country's Electoral Tribunal [*]
In Potosi, the outrage became evident, once the Electoral Tribunal, which initially gave the victory by exit to Mesa by 69%, had reduced this percentage to 34% in the final count[*]
That day, a viral video began to circulate on the Internet. In the footage, you can see the Union Leader Marco Pumari forcing his entry into a warehouse, where hundreds of ballots were (secretly) stored. I will transcribe Pumari's impressions:
Supposedly a few blocks from here, the Electoral Tribunal, already began scrutinizing. They are already counting our votes. What are they counting! If the votes of the Potosinos are Here! What are the authorities counting there?
If this is what they are doing in the Capital of Potosi... imagine what they are doing in Rural Areas! That’s why Evo Morales has indicated us to "wait for the vote of the rural areas." He even thanked the Potosinos for our votes! To whom Evo should thank, it is those corrupt members of the Electoral Tribunal, who are going against their own Population!
This is unacceptable. It's a crime! Today the police tried to prevent us from entering this compound. The police, protecting these corrupts! No Notary wants to come here and to take note of the situation. Not a single one! We will go to file a complaint in Justice Court. But who knows if they will listen to us, since Justice is also in the hands of the Government!
I now I ask to you: What is left for us to do, as The People?
The video broadcast by Marco Pumari enraged the population of Potosí, who ended it up setting on fire the Electoral Tribunal. But this was just one of many videos that, through social networks, questioned the actions of the Government and the Electoral Tribunal in counting the votes
When night came, after several hours of unanswered protests, the violence began to grow. The headquarters of the Electoral Courts of Sucre was also burned in retaliation. [*]. Protests in favor and against Morales begin to occur throughout the country
Luis Fernando Camacho, a businessman and social leader from the Bolivian East side, would call for an indefinite strike from Santa Cruz[*], one of the most important cities in Bolivia, jeopardizing the social and economic sustainability of the government
The Catholic Church would also show its concern, warning signs of fraud in the presidential election [*]
Meanwhile, a group of radical Indigenous women, known as The Red Ponchos, threatened the opposition with taking up arms to defend Evo and his Government [*] The same threats were made by the Coca Leaf Leaders, who historically had shown firm support for the president
At the beginning of November, the die was cast. A major conflict was approaching, and both sides anticipated that bloodshed was inevitable. It is in these moments of maximum tension, the OAS makes it’s appearance

The OAS Intervention

The OAS, is the International Community who brings together all the Latin American countries. It’s also the faithful reflection of the apathy Hispanic countries profess to international conflicts.
The OAS, in theory, could possess great political powers on the American Continent, perhaps even Worldwide relevance. However, the prevailing indifference in Latin America (even present in great powers like Brazil and Mexico) has limited OAS to become the great defender of the Status quo in the Region. Moral or immoral? Truth is, Hispanic countries lack interest in the internal politics of their neighbors, and rarely intervene in them regardless of the seriousness of the matter at hand
Morales, of course, already knew this. He himself had participated in OAS for 13 years, and he knew they could take months to obtain a final report and, most likely, they were only going to limit themselves to sustaining the Status Quo
Opposition leaders were also aware of this, so they did everything it was possible to de-legitimize the statistical value of the OAS. They knew that the pacifist position of the American countries in favor of Morales would de-legitimize the protests, and they might stop the Protest completely Therefore, if they wanted to take down Evo, they had to act as soon as possible, before the call for calm from the OAS demoralized the protesters

The Bolivian Revolution

The conflict was on. Evo Morales was plan was to ask the population to calm down, and wait for OAS Report on the Elections. The opposition sought to extend the protests to the rest of the country, and make Evo fall before the OAS calmed down the protests
The Manifestations, of course, did not wait. From the East, Fernando Camacho was leading the businessmen and wealthy class of Santa Cruz, from the West, the Union Leader Marco Pumari, leading the working and indigenous masses of Potosi
It might seem curious that none of the Opposition presidential candidates led the protests. But you must remember that, with their re-election attempts, many civil groups had previously organized in the event of a Fraud situation. Although these communities came from very disparate political groups, the strong opposition to Evo was enough to keep them united as one
These civil groups proved to have more support than the opposition parties themselves, and turned out to be much more difficult for the Government to contain
One of the great advantages of these communities was they were not associated (yet) with the corruption that characterized Bolivian politics, and their only defined political program was to oust Evo. This would make their most popular representatives, Camacho and Pumari, more relatable and easy-to-follow leaders. For his part, Evo Morales resorted to two main methods to win: A) To exercise repression with his shock trops and B) A lot of Whining
On the one hand, Evo could use his shock forces to violently attack the opposition, with not much International repercussions. This attacks reach their peak at infamous Siege to Santa Cruz [*]. On the other hand, Evo sought to give the appearance of a coup before the international community, and promoted the image “USA is attacking Bolivia”

Electoral manipulation is confirmed

On November 8, Ethical Hacking, the auditing company hired by the Electoral Tribunal itself to follow the election process, Delivers their final report[*]. This report, was nothing short of devastating for the Government
They revealed that, at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day, a large amount of data began to be received from an Unknown Server, which caused constant errors in the electoral app of the TREP. Looking for explanations, Ethical Hacking goes to the Members of the Committee, who admited it was them who accessed the electoral system, but only out of "curiosity" to see the Data (Let's remember, it was approximately at this time, the Electoral Tribunal suddenly stopped publishing vote counts)
But this turned out to be just the tip of the Iceberg. Over the next five days, Ethical Hacking recorded not one or two, but 12 breaches of the electoral system's protocol. The reason for breaking the protocols were quite varied, but the final consequences were the same: The Electoral Acts could have been modified at will by the Members of the Electoral Tribunal, since there was no supervision by an external entity at those times
The reaction in Bolivia did not wait. The fact the very company hired by the Government blamed the Electoral Tribunal for invalidating the results, would be funny, if it wasn't so tragic
That same day, tired of being used against the protesting population, police forces in Cochamaba, Sucre and Santa Cruz mutinied against the Government[*]A few days later, they were followed by police forces from La Paz
The protesters, now with the protection of the local police, grew to Dantesque levels. They finally had enough numbers and support to take over the country

The betrayal of the OAS

Evo Morales was cornered. His popular support was both surppassed in numbers and organization by opposition forces. The national police were unwilling to repress the protesters, and His personal strike groups didn't have the weapons nor the planning to fight the dissident population over the country
In a desperate attempt to regain control of Bolivia, Morales fired the members of the Electoral Tribunal, blaming them for the errors in the process, and promised to organize new a electoral process [*]However, this act of good faith ended it up having no value, because on November 10, against all expectations, the OAS publishes an "executive report" confirming the final Electoral tall had mayor issues, probably some sort of manipulation, effectively invalidating the results. They suggested it would be better make the whole elections again
The response of Bolivian politics was one of total disbelief. Not only the OAS had advanced it's reports against the Government's desires[*], it also openly ruled against Evo, using a language that practically encouraged the dissident to continue their Protest
It was perhaps at that moment that Evo Morales finally understood he was betrayed. His fervent support for a favorable OAS ruling had become a double-edged sword. A weapon the opposition would undoubtedly use against him
At the same time, Senior Officials of the Bolivian Army met in Secret to decide what they could do to regain control of the country. From what we now known, High Officers were concerned of the increasing anarchy the country was facing, and feared at this rate, it would be impossible to prevent bloodshed between opposite factions[*]Therefore, Williams Kaliman, the commander-in-chief of the Bolivian Armed Forces, asked the president to resign, in order to regain political stability in the country.
Evo Morales, after 13 years of government and almost 20 days of fierce struggle, was forced to present his resignation as President. Bolivian Protesters, had won
submitted by Superfan234 to neoliberal [link] [comments]


2020.08.09 21:30 Superfan234 bolivia testo 3

In a previous post, I answered the most commons questions and misconceptions about the Conflict in Bolivia
With this post my objective is much more ambitious: To explain once and for all , the Bolivian Crisis to Neoliberal
It is a massive task, for sure. But I think the final work lives up to the expectations
Of course, massive thanks to u/thebolivianguy. He helped me a ton with details I was honestly not aware of, give his inside thoughts from inside the country, and brought almost all the main News Sources you will find in this post. Kudos to him for the support!
What role did the OAS have? Was it really the United States the ones who ousted Evo Morales? Was there really Electoral manipulation? How the Opposition took over the country?
Let's find out ;)

The Original Sin: The Controversial Plebiscite of 2016

If I need to give a specific date to understand the turmoil events of 2019, without a doubt we must go back to 2016, to the Plebicite of February 21. In this Plebiscite, Evo Morales Aima called on the Bolivian population to vote for a constitutional reform allowing him to be elected for the 2020-2025 presidential term. By a tight margin (51% against re-eleccion vs 49% in favor) Bolivians decided to prevent another term for Evo Morales in 2019 [*]
Evo Morales, after 13 years of thunderous electoral victories, had to accept defeat. Until then, he enjoyed unparalleled popularity in Bolivia, keeping the country with a stable economy [*] and together with his Party (MAS) he controlled all the powers of the State. It took him a few days, but reluctantly, he ends up accepting his loss
However, a few months later, Morales would appeal to the Constitutional Court for a second opinion. In 2017, in a highly controversial ruling, the Court considered the prohibition of indefinite re-election, limited the Humans Rights of the President. As a result, Evo could stand for re-election as many times as he wished to[*]
The ruling was naturally strongly criticized by the opposition. And, in hindsight , it became the biggest political mistake Evo Morales has ever made

The Consequences of Indefinite Re-Election

For more than a decade, Evo enjoyed great popularity and appreciation by varied sectors of the population. Not only the "common people", but also Bolivian businessmen, who viewed with good eyes the stability and economic growth Bolivia had experienced, something extremely rare in that country. These times of prosperity had reduced the Opposition to small unpopular group, with multitude of internal conflicts
But extremely partisan decision of the Constitutional Tribunal allowed Opposition politicians, who shared little to nothing with each other, to sit together and defend themselves against a common enemy. In time, civil communities would join the political efforts, and together, they would be able to unleash protests and demonstrations throughout the country, capitalizing on the political discontent of the Bolivian People
The OAS, on the contrary, would not condemn the decision of the Constitutional Court. On the contrary, the president of the OAS expressly traveled to Bolivia to support the indefinite election of Evo Morales. [*]. For those who have heard of the Bolivian Crisis in mass media this may sound unusual, but in fact there is a quite convincing explanation. However, let's not beat around this bush just yet
I am going to be extremely specific: There are 3 central points crucial to understand the Bolivian crisis (I'm going to list them because we will constantly return to them)
Evo's wishes for indefinite re-election resulted in three critical problems
  • 1) Political Union of the Opposition: Parties and Civil Communities that shared little or nothing with each other, put aside their political differences in order to defeat Evo
  • 2) General mistrust of the People: The Rebirth of the Dictatorships of Venezuela (~ 2017) and Nicaragua (~ 2018), became a gloomy omen for Bolivians. Both regimes were consolidated through electoral farces. So the proper tally of the votes became absolutely crucial
  • 3) Antagonism with Latin America: A big majority of LATAM Leaders, for the most part, was seeking a change of government in Venezuela at any cost. Bolivia's fierce support to Venezuela, could be a fundamental obstacle to overthrowing Maduro
The combination of these 3 factors, added to the generalized perception of Evo Morales as a Corrupt Politician, was the explosive mixture that led to the general fear of electoral manipulation in Bolivia
The massive protests, and this is important to remember, were not to support a particular opposition candidate. They were against the (justified) fear that Evo installed in the Bolivian population about falling into a Crisis similar to the one Venezuela was living

Days before the Election

By early October 2019, the political tension could be feel in the air. Three years of attempts to avoid Evo's re-election had failed legally, but electorally, they had succeeded in an unprecedented way Since 2005, Morales had won by landslides all the presidential elections he had participated. In 2005, he had beaten Jorge Quiroga 54% vs 29%. In 2009 he beat Manfred Reyes 64% vs 27%, in 2014 he beat Samuel Doria 61% vs 24. Evo's popularity, in principle, was virtually unbeatable
But a partial defeat in the municipal elections of 2015[*] and mainly his defeat in the 2016 Plebiscite, raised doubts about his ability to win a new presidential elections
Problems were nothing to shrug off. Morales presented in 2019 the same Political Project he had for over 13 years: a Conservative-Social Democracy with an indigenous mix. Against him, Carlos Mesa, his main political rival, presented an almost identical project, with the additional “plus” of not having 13 years of corruption scandals and worn-out Populism accompanying Evo
Citizens who felt comfortable with Evo's Bolivarian model could feel confident Mesa have the vision to continue the years of prosperity, and at the same time, detoxify the institutions of the State from rampant corruption. It was, by all accounts, a great opportunity for political change in the country
As the Election approached, the opinion polls became increasingly grim for Evo. He was projected to reach only 37% of the vote in the First Round, far from the ~ 60% he achieved in the 2014 elections[*]
To top it off, Chi Hyun and Oscar Ortiz (the other two strong opposition candidates) appear, in the event of a Ballot, closer to supporting Carlos Mesa than Evo. Capturing those votes in the Second round, would be a very complex task
Although the situation might look bleak for the Government there was, in fact, a chance to win. In Bolivia, the candidate who obtains more than 40% of the votes (and exceeds the second candidate by 10%) can be elected as winner in the First Round
This way, Evo marginally win in the First round, thus avoiding a second Ballot. Of course, the fact Evo could win by a margin of ~ 1%, only increased the social pressure on the correct tall of votes The Opposition Politicians and Media also echoed this concern, and months before the elections, they were already calling for citizens to protect the results, accusing the Government of fabricating an electoral fraud [*][*][*]

Elections Day

The day everyone was waiting for finally arrived. At the Sunday of October 20, citizens of the 9 Departments of Bolivia were called to vote at the polls, without any mayor complications at first
After a relatively quiet morning, Bolivians prepared for the results. In Bolivia, the electoral court supervises three different types of counting
  • Boca de Urna(*): quite unaccurate, but reflects the immediate moments after the vote
  • Quick Count (TREP): which allows to know approximate results in a few hours [*]
  • Final Count: official results, which usually take a couple of days
It was clear that the winner would be defined by mere decimals. And possibly, the last votes would come from rural areas, where Evo remained as great favorite, but little polls to clarity for how much At night, Bolivians were nervously waiting for the final results of the count. In mere minutes, they would know the results of 4 years of political conflict. And suddenly, without any prior notice, the Electoral Tribunal stops the vote count
The opposition's alarms quickly went off, and fiercely, they asked the electoral court an explanation for the delay
The Electoral Tribunal, without giving it much importance to it, give vague and really confusing reasons to excuse itself[*]. Although at the beginning it was attributed (informally) to technical problems, the Electoral Tribunal ended up reporting that stopping the quick count was "planned in advance" [*] and that the final results would eventually be known
If this process was really planned or not, the doubt was enough to light the fuse of the discontent and mistrust the entire country was experiencing. Quickly, citizens began to protest at the headquarters of the Electoral Tribunal [*] , demanding the vote counting be resumed
The OAS, the European Union and the United States expressed their concern about the suspension of the count, and sent statements requesting explanations from the government[*]

Days after the election

On Monday October 21, the Electoral Tribunal resumed the vote counting. To the discontent of the Opposition (and the joy of the Government), the final toll was clear: Morales had won in the first round, and MAS maintained control of both the Upper House and the Lower House of the Congress
This only infuriated the Opposition population, who saw the change in trend and Government secrecy as a clear attempt to manipulate the data. Protests began in front of the country's Electoral Tribunal [*]
In Potosi, the outrage became evident, once the Electoral Tribunal, which initially gave the victory by exit to Mesa by 69%, had reduced this percentage to 34% in the final count[*]
That day, a viral video began to circulate on the Internet. In the footage, you can see the Union Leader Marco Pumari forcing his entry into a warehouse, where hundreds of ballots were (secretly) stored. I will transcribe Pumari's impressions:
Supposedly a few blocks from here, the Electoral Tribunal, already began scrutinizing. They are already counting our votes. What are they counting! If the votes of the Potosinos are Here! What are the authorities counting there?
If this is what they are doing in the Capital of Potosi... imagine what they are doing in Rural Areas! That’s why Evo Morales has indicated us to "wait for the vote of the rural areas." He even thanked the Potosinos for our votes! To whom Evo should thank, it is those corrupt members of the Electoral Tribunal, who are going against their own Population!
This is unacceptable. It's a crime! Today the police tried to prevent us from entering this compound. The police, protecting these corrupts! No Notary wants to come here and to take note of the situation. Not a single one! We will go to file a complaint in Justice Court. But who knows if they will listen to us, since Justice is also in the hands of the Government!
I now I ask to you: What is left for us to do, as The People?
The video broadcast by Marco Pumari enraged the population of Potosí, who ended it up setting on fire the Electoral Tribunal. But this was just one of many videos that, through social networks, questioned the actions of the Government and the Electoral Tribunal in counting the votes
When night came, after several hours of unanswered protests, the violence began to grow. The headquarters of the Electoral Courts of Sucre was also burned in retaliation. [*]. Protests in favor and against Morales begin to occur throughout the country
Luis Fernando Camacho, a businessman and social leader from the Bolivian East side, would call for an indefinite strike from Santa Cruz[*], one of the most important cities in Bolivia, jeopardizing the social and economic sustainability of the government
The Catholic Church would also show its concern, warning signs of fraud in the presidential election [*]
Meanwhile, a group of radical Indigenous women, known as The Red Ponchos, threatened the opposition with taking up arms to defend Evo and his Government [*] The same threats were made by the Coca Leaf Leaders, who historically had shown firm support for the president
At the beginning of November, the die was cast. A major conflict was approaching, and both sides anticipated that bloodshed was inevitable. It is in these moments of maximum tension, the OAS makes it’s appearance

The OAS Intervention

The OAS, is the International Community who brings together all the Latin American countries. It’s also the faithful reflection of the apathy Hispanic countries profess to international conflicts.
The OAS, in theory, could possess great political powers on the American Continent, perhaps even Worldwide relevance. However, the prevailing indifference in Latin America (even present in great powers like Brazil and Mexico) has limited OAS to become the great defender of the Status quo in the Region. Moral or immoral? Truth is, Hispanic countries lack interest in the internal politics of their neighbors, and rarely intervene in them regardless of the seriousness of the matter at hand
Morales, of course, already knew this. He himself had participated in OAS for 13 years, and he knew they could take months to obtain a final report and, most likely, they were only going to limit themselves to sustaining the Status Quo
Opposition leaders were also aware of this, so they did everything it was possible to de-legitimize the statistical value of the OAS. They knew that the pacifist position of the American countries in favor of Morales would de-legitimize the protests, and they might stop the Protest completely Therefore, if they wanted to take down Evo, they had to act as soon as possible, before the call for calm from the OAS demoralized the protesters

The Bolivian Revolution

The conflict was on. Evo Morales was plan was to ask the population to calm down, and wait for OAS Report on the Elections. The opposition sought to extend the protests to the rest of the country, and make Evo fall before the OAS calmed down the protests
The Manifestations, of course, did not wait. From the East, Fernando Camacho was leading the businessmen and wealthy class of Santa Cruz, from the West, the Union Leader Marco Pumari, leading the working and indigenous masses of Potosi
It might seem curious that none of the Opposition presidential candidates led the protests. But you must remember that, with their re-election attempts, many civil groups had previously organized in the event of a Fraud situation. Although these communities came from very disparate political groups, the strong opposition to Evo was enough to keep them united as one
These civil groups proved to have more support than the opposition parties themselves, and turned out to be much more difficult for the Government to contain
One of the great advantages of these communities was they were not associated (yet) with the corruption that characterized Bolivian politics, and their only defined political program was to oust Evo. This would make their most popular representatives, Camacho and Pumari, more relatable and easy-to-follow leaders. For his part, Evo Morales resorted to two main methods to win: A) To exercise repression with his shock trops and B) A lot of Whining
On the one hand, Evo could use his shock forces to violently attack the opposition, with not much International repercussions. This attacks reach their peak at infamous Siege to Santa Cruz [*]. On the other hand, Evo sought to give the appearance of a coup before the international community, and promoted the image “USA is attacking Bolivia”

Electoral manipulation is confirmed

On November 8, Ethical Hacking, the auditing company hired by the Electoral Tribunal itself to follow the election process, Delivers their final report[*]. This report, was nothing short of devastating for the Government
They revealed that, at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day, a large amount of data began to be received from an Unknown Server, which caused constant errors in the electoral app of the TREP. Looking for explanations, Ethical Hacking goes to the Members of the Committee, who admited it was them who accessed the electoral system, but only out of "curiosity" to see the Data (Let's remember, it was approximately at this time, the Electoral Tribunal suddenly stopped publishing vote counts)
But this turned out to be just the tip of the Iceberg. Over the next five days, Ethical Hacking recorded not one or two, but 12 breaches of the electoral system's protocol. The reason for breaking the protocols were quite varied, but the final consequences were the same: The Electoral Acts could have been modified at will by the Members of the Electoral Tribunal, since there was no supervision by an external entity at those times
The reaction in Bolivia did not wait. The fact the very company hired by the Government blamed the Electoral Tribunal for invalidating the results, would be funny, if it wasn't so tragic
That same day, tired of being used against the protesting population, police forces in Cochamaba, Sucre and Santa Cruz mutinied against the Government[*]A few days later, they were followed by police forces from La Paz
The protesters, now with the protection of the local police, grew to Dantesque levels. They finally had enough numbers and support to take over the country

The betrayal of the OAS

Evo Morales was cornered. His popular support was both surppassed in numbers and organization by opposition forces. The national police were unwilling to repress the protesters, and His personal strike groups didn't have the weapons nor the planning to fight the dissident population over the country
In a desperate attempt to regain control of Bolivia, Morales fired the members of the Electoral Tribunal, blaming them for the errors in the process, and promised to organize new a electoral process [*]However, this act of good faith ended it up having no value, because on November 10, against all expectations, the OAS publishes an "executive report" confirming the final Electoral tall had mayor issues, probably some sort of manipulation, effectively invalidating the results. They suggested it would be better make the whole elections again
The response of Bolivian politics was one of total disbelief. Not only the OAS had advanced it's reports against the Government's desires[*], it also openly ruled against Evo, using a language that practically encouraged the dissident to continue their Protest
It was perhaps at that moment that Evo Morales finally understood he was betrayed. His fervent support for a favorable OAS ruling had become a double-edged sword. A weapon the opposition would undoubtedly use against him
At the same time, Senior Officials of the Bolivian Army met in Secret to decide what they could do to regain control of the country. From what we now known, High Officers were concerned of the increasing anarchy the country was facing, and feared at this rate, it would be impossible to prevent bloodshed between opposite factions[*]Therefore, Williams Kaliman, the commander-in-chief of the Bolivian Armed Forces, asked the president to resign, in order to regain political stability in the country.
Evo Morales, after 13 years of government and almost 20 days of fierce struggle, was forced to present his resignation as President. Bolivian Protesters, had won
submitted by Superfan234 to test [link] [comments]


2020.08.07 23:02 Superfan234 bolivia crisis test 1

La Crisis Política en Bolivia ha generado una enorme cantidad de opiniones y comentarios por todo Reddit
En un anterior post, me remiti a responder escuetamente las preguntas mas comunes sobre este Conflicto
Ahora, en este Effortpost, les explicaré con lujo de detalles, como yo (y la población Boliviana) vivió el dia a dia la Crisis Electoral del 2019
Que papel tuvo la OAS? Fue realmente Estados Unidos quien tumbo a Evo? Realmente hubo manipulación Electoral? Quien Gano las elecciones?
Vamos alla!

The Original Sin: El Controversial Plebicito de 2016

Si tenemos que dar una fecha especifica para entender los turmoil events de 2019, sin duda debemos remontarnos al Plebicito del 21 de Febero de 2016. En este Plebicito, Evo Morales Aima llamo a la población Boliviana a votar una reforma consitucional que le permitiría re-elegirse para el periodo presidencial 2020-2025. Por un ajustado margen (51% por el No vs 49% por el Si) los Bolivianos decidieron impedir una nueva re-eleccion Evo Morales en 2019 [*]
Evo Morales, tras 13 años de estruendosas victorias electorales, tenia que aceptar la derrota. Hasta ese entonces, gozaba una popularidad sin igual en Bolivia, manteniendo al país con una economía estable [*] y junto a su partido (el MAS) controlaba todos los poderes del Estado. Le tomo unos días, pero a regañadientes, termina por aceptar su derrota
No obstante, unos meses después, Evo recurriría al Tribunal Constitucional por una segunda opinión. En 2017, en un fallo sumamente controversial, el Tribunal estimo que la prohibición de re-eleccion indefinida limitaba los Derechos Hunamos de Evo morales, por lo que este , si asi lo quería, podía presentarse a la re-eleccion cuantas veces quisiese [*]
El falllo fue, naturalmente, ferozmente criticado por la oposición. Y, en perspectiva, se convirtió en el mayor error politico que Evo Morales haya cometido jamás

Consecuencias del la re-eleccion indefinida

Hasta entonces, Evo había gozado de gran popularidad y aprecio por sectores muy variados de la Población. No solo “el pueblo llano”, sino también de los empresarios bolivianos, que veían con buenos ojos la estabilidad y crecimiento económico que vivía Bolivia, algo sumamente raro en ese país. Estos tiempos de prosperidad, habían reducido a la Oposición a cúpulas pequeñas, que pasaban su tiempo enfrascados en pleitos internos
La indudable decisión partidaria del TC, permitió que políticos de Oposición, que poco o nada compartían unos a otros, se sentaran juntos a defenderse frente a un enemigo común. Con el tiempo, Comunidades civiles se sumarian a los esfuerzos políticos, y juntos serían capaces de desencadenaría protestas y manifestaciones a través de todo el país, capitalizando el descontento político del Pueblo Boliviano
La OAS, por el contrario, no condenaría la decisión del Tribunal Constitucional. Sino por el contrario, el presidente de la OAS viajo expresamente a Bolivia a apoyar la elección indefinida de Evo Morales. [*] Para los que hayan escuchado de la Crisis Boliviana en otros medios masivos esto les puede sonar insolito, pero de hecho hay un explicación bastante convincente. Sin embargo, no nos vayamos por las ramas aun
Voy a ser lo más concreto posible: Hay 3 puntos centrales que son requisitors cruciales para enteder la Crisis Boliviana. Me voy a dar el tiempo de enumerarlos porque voy a volver constantemente a ellos
Los deseos de re-eleccion indefinida de Evo se tradujeron en tres problemas criticos
  • 1) Unión política de la Oposición: Partidos y Comunidades Civiles que poco o nada compartían entre sí, dejaron de lado sus diferencias políticas con tal de derrotar a Evo
  • 2) Desconfianza generalizada del Pueblo: El Renacer de las Dictaduras de Venezuela (~2017) y Nicaragua (~2018) , se convirtió en un sombrío augurio para los Bolivianos. Ambos regímenes se consolidaron por medio de farsas electorales. Por lo que el correcto conteo de los votos, se volvio absolutamente crucial
  • 3) Antagonismo con LatinoAmerica: LATAM, en su gran mayoría, buscaba un cambio de Gobierno en Venezuela a como dé lugar. El apoyo de Bolivia a Venezuela, podría resultar en un obstáculo fundamental para derrocar a Maduro
La combinacion de estos 3 factores, sumado a la percepción generalizada de Evo Morales como un personaje Corrupto, fue la mezcla explosiva que llevo al temor generalizdo de manipulación electoral en Bolivia Las protestas masivas, y esto es importante recordarlo, no fueron para apoyar a un candidato opositor en particular, sino contra el temor (justificado) que Evo instalo en población boliviana sobre caer en una Crisis similar a la Venezolana

Days before the Election

A inicio de Octubre de 2019, la tensión politica en Bolivia podía sentirse en el aire. Tres años de intentos para evitar la re-eleccion de Evo habían fracasado en lo Legal, pero electoralmente, habían triunfado de manera asombrosa
Desde 2005, Morales había vencido by landslide en todos los comicios presidenciales que había participado. En 2005 habia vencido a Jorge Quiroga 54% vs 29% , en 2009 vencio a Manfred Reyes por 64% vs 27% y en 2014 supero a Samuel Doria por un 61% vs 24. La popularidad de Evo, en principio, se veía invatible. Pero una parcial derrota en las elecciones municipales de 2015 [*] y principalmente su derrota en el Plebicito de 2016 , había sentado dudas sobre capacidad su capacidad de vencer en nuevos comicios presidenciales
Y las razones no eran menores. Evo se presentó el 2019, como siempre, con su proyecto Social Democrata Conservador con tientes indigenistas. Frente a él, Carlos Mesa, su principal rival político, presentaba un proyecto casi identico, pero sin los 13 años de escándalos de corrupción y Populismo desgastado que acompañaban a Evo
Los ciudadanos que se sentían a gusto con el modelo Bolivariano de Evo, podían sentir confianza que Mesa podía continuar los años de prosperidad, y al mismo tiempo, desintoxicar las instituciones del Estado saturadas de Corrupción. Era, a todas luces, una gran oportunidad para el cambio político en el país A medida que se acercaba la Eleccion, las encuenstas de opinión fueron cada vez más tétricas para Evo. Llegando solo un 37% de la votación en Primera Vuelta, se encontraba muy lejos del ~60% que había conseguido en elecciones del 2014 [*]
Para rematar, Chi Hyun y Oscar Ortiz (los otros dos candidatos fuertes de oposición) se presentaban en caso de Balotaje, más cercanos de apoyar a Carlos Mesa que a Evo, lo que hacia captar los votos de esas bancadas en Segunda vuelta, una tarea aun más compleja
Aunque la situación podía parecer lugrube, Existia sin embargo una posibilidad de vencer. En Bolivia, el candidato que obtenga mas del 40% de los votos y supere por 10% al segundo, es elegido vencedor en Primera Vuelta
Esto podría convertir a Evo marginalmente como vencedor en Primera vuleta, y asi lograr evitar un Balotaje. Por supuesta, el hecho que Evo pudiera resultar vencedor por un margen de un ~1%, no hacia mas que incrementar la presion social sobre el correcto recuento de los votos.
Los Politicos y Medios Opositores, también hicieron eco de esta preocupación, y meses antes de los elecciones, ya estaban llamando proteger los resultados, acusando al Gobierno de estar gestando un posible Fraude electoral[*][*][*]

The Day of the Election

El dia que todos esperaban, finalmente llego. El Domingo 20 de Octubre ciudadanos de los 9 Departamente de Bolivia fueron llamados a votar en las Urnas, sin que en principio se presentaran mayores complicaciones
Tras una mañana relativamente tranquila, los bolivianos se prepararon para los resultados de Boca de Urna y los del Conteo Rápido. A las ~19:00 horas El Tribunal Electoral informo que, con un 85% de los votos ya analizados, tanto la Boca de Urna, como el conteo rápido, permitían a Evo superar la barrara del 40%. Sin embargo, la diferencia de votos con Mesa se mantenía entre 9.3% y 6.9%, lo que le era insuficiente para ganar en Primera Vuelta
Estaba claro que el ganador seria definido por decimas. Y que los últimos votos saldrían de las áreas rurales, donde Evo se mantenía como gran favorito, pero como poca claridad si era suficiente para dar vuelta el resultado
Cuando todos los ojos y oídos de los bolivianos estaban pendiente de los resultados finales del conteo. A minutos del momento culmine de 4 años de conflicto político, el Tribunal Electoral, sin previo aviso, detiene el escrutinio de votos
Las alarmas de la oposición se encendieron rápidamente, y enardecidos, pidieron explicaciones a la corte electoral por el retraso en el recuento
La corte electoral, sin darle mucha importancia, comenzó a dar razones vagas, y realmente confusas para excusarse. Si bien al comienzo se atribuyo (informalmente) a problemas técnicos, el Tribunal Electoral termino por informar que detener el conteo rápido estaba “planificado de antemano”[*] y que los resultados finales, se sabrían eventualmente
Si este procesos estaba realmente estaba planificado o no, la duda fue suficiente para encender la mecha del descontento y la desconfianza que vivía todo el País. Rápidamente, ciudadanos comenzaron a protestar en las sedes del Tribunal Electoral[*], exigiendo que el conteo de votos se reanude

The days after the election

El Domingo 21 de Octubre, el Tribunal Electoral retomo el conteo de votos. Para descontento de la Oposición (y la alegría del Gobierno) los datos eran contundentes: Morales había vencido en primera vuelta, y el MAS mantenía el control tanto de la Camara Alta como de la Camara Baja
Esto no hizo más que enardecer en furia a la población opositora, que vio en el cambio de tendencia y secretismos del Gobierno, un claro intento de manipular los datos. Protestas comenzaron frente a los Tribunal Electorales del país [*]
En Potosi, La indignación se hizo evidente, una vez que el Tribunal Electoral , que en principio dio la victoria por boca de urna a Mesa por un 69%, había reducido este porcentaje a 34% en el conteo final [*]
Llegada la noche, tras varias horas de protestas sin respuesta, la violencia comenzó a crecer. Las sedes del Tribunales Electorales de Sucre y Potosi son quemadas en represalia.[*]. Protestas a favor y en contra de Morales comienzan a darse por todo el terriotrio nacional
La OEA, Union Europea y Estados Unidos mostraron su preocupación por la suspensión del conteo, y enviaron comunicados pidiendo explicaciones al gobierno[*]
Ese dia, un video viral comenzó a cirucular por Internet. En este, se podía ver al Dirigente Sindical Marco Pumari forzando su entrando a una bodega donde centenares de cajas de votos se encontraban guardadas. Transcribo las impresiones de Pumari:
Supuestamente al frente, el en Tribunal Electoral, ya están escrutando. Ya se esta haciendo el conteo de nuestros votos. Y que estan contando! Si aquí estan los votos de los Potosinos! ¿Que están contando las autoridades?
Si esto es lo que están haciendo en la Capital de Potosi…imaginanese que están haciendo en las áreas rurales! Por eso Evo Morales ha indicado que tenemos que “esperar el voto de las zonas rurales”. Hasta nos agradece los votos a los Potosinos! A quien debe agradecer Evo, es a esos corruptos del Tribunal Electoral, que hoy estan yendo en contra de la Poblacion!
Esto es inaceptable. Es un Delito! Hoy la policía intento impedir que entráramos a este recinto. La policía, resguardando a estos corruptos. Ningún Notario quiere venir en este momento para tomar acta de la situación. ¡Ninguno! Vamos a ir en este momento a presentar una denuncia ante la Justicia. Y quien sabe si nos harán caso, ya que la Justicia también esta en manos del Gobierno!
Les pregunto: ¿Que nos queda a nosotros por hacer, como Pueblo?
El video difundido por Marco Pumari enardeció a la población potosina, termino por incendiar el Tribunal Electoral. Pero este fue solo uno de muchos videos que, por las redes sociales, cuestionaban el actuar del Gobierno y el Tribunal Electoral en el conteo de los votos
Luis Fernando Camacho, un empresario y líder social Cruceño, convocaría un paro indefinido desde Santa Cruz, una de las ciudades más importantes de Bolivia, poniendo en jaque la sustentabilidad social y económica del gobierno
La iglesia católica, también mostraría su preocupación, advirtiendo indicios de fraude en la elección presidencial [*]
Mientras tanto, un grupo de Indigenas radicales, conocidos como los Ponchos Rojos, amenazaban a la oposición con tomar armas para defender a Evo y su Gobierno[*]. Misma amenazas hicieron los lideres Cocaleros, que históricamente, se habían caracterizado por su firme apoyo al presidente
A inicios de noviembre, la suerte ya estaba echada. Un conflicto mayúsculo se acercaba, y ambos bandos preveían que el derramamiento de sangre era inevitable. Es en estos momentos de máxima tensión, es que tenemos la intervención de la OAS

La Intervencion de la OAS

La OAS, comunidad que reúne a los los países LatinoAmericanos, es reflejo fiel de la apatía que profesan los países Hispanos a los conflictos Internacionales
La OAS, en teoría, podría poseer grandes poderes políticos en el Contiente Americano, quizás hasta relevancia a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, la desidia imperante en LatinoAmerica, incluso presente en grandes potencias como Brazil y Mexico, la ha limitado a maneternse como el gran defensor del Estatus quo en la Region. Moral o inmoral? Lo cierto es que los países Hispanos raramente intervenen en la política interna de sus vecinos, sin importar la gravedad del asunto que acontesca
Morales, naturalmente, ya contaba con esto. El mismo había participado por 13 años en esta organización, y conocía que la OAS podría llegar a tomar meses para obtener un dictamen final, y que, muy probablemete, solo se iba a limitar a sostener el Status Quo
Los líderes de oposición, por el contrario, hicieron todo lo posible por desligitimar el valor estadístico de la OAS. Ellos sabían que la posición pacifista de los países americanos en favor de Evo Morales iba a desligitimar la protestas, e incluso, hasta podrían detenerlas por completo
Por tanto, si querían tumbar a Evo, debían actuar lo más pronto posible, antes que el llamado a la calma de la OAS desmoralizara a los manifestantes

La Revolucion Boliviana

El conflicto estaba en marcha. Evo Morales iba a pedir calma a la población, esperando el dictamente de la OAS que, muy probablemente, le sentaría a su favor. La oposición buscaba extender las protestas al resto del pais, y hacer caer a Evo antes que la OAS apasiguara las protestas
Los Manifestaciones, por supuesto, no se hiceron esperar. Por el Este, Fernando Camacho liderando a los empresarios y clase acomodada de Santa Cruz, por el Oeste, el Lider Sindicalista Marco Pumari, liderando a la masa trabajadora e indígena de Potosi
Podría parecer curioso que ninguno de los candidatos presidenciales de la oposición liderara las protestas. Pero deben recordar que, con sus intentos de re-eleccion, muchos grupos civiles se habían organizado previamente en caso de ocurrir una situación de Fraude. Si bien estas comunidades provenían de grupos muy dispares, la fuerte oposicion a Evo fue suficiente para mantenerlos unidos politicamente
Estos grupos civiles, demostraron tener más alcance que los propios partidos de oposicion, y resutaron ser mucho más difíciles de contener para el Gobierno
Una de las grandes ventaja de estas comunidadas fue que no estaban salpicadas (aún) por la corrupción que caracterizaba a la Politica Boliviana y su único programa político definido, era estar en contra de Evo. Esto convertiría a sus representantes más populares, Camacho y Pumari, en lideres relatables y faciles de seguir
Por su parte, Evo Morales recurrio dos metodos para vencer: ejercer represión y bueno...dar lastima. Por un lado, usuaba sus fuerzas de choque para atacar violentamente a la oposición, siendo el punto culmine el intento de Siege a Santa Cruz[*]. Por el otro, buscaba dar la aparencia de Golpe de Estado ante la comunidad internacional [*]
Las fuerzas de choque de Evo contaban con armas ciertamente rudimentarias, pero muy peligrosas, siendo la Dinamita la más infame entre ellas. [*] [NSFL Link] No pasaría mucho tiempo para que los heridos se multiplicaran, y los primeros muertos comenzaran a caer
No obstante, la población boliviana (con una valentía realmente admirable), no se dejó doblegar. Una por una, las regiones bolivianas se levantaban en protesta, demostrando que, tanto que en animo y en cantidad, representaban la mayoría del país. Despues de uno días de struggles, el Gobierno se da cuenta que le iba a ser imposible detener las protestas con violencia, o con propaganda

Electoral manipulation is confirmed

El 8 de noviembre, Ethical Hacking, la empresa auditora contratada por el propio Tribunal Electoral para seguir el proceso de elección, Entrega su informe final[*]. Este informe, it was nothing short of devastating
Revelaron que, a las 19:30 del dia de las elecciones, desde un Server Desconocido, se comenzaron a recibir una gran cantidad de datos, que producían errores constantes la aplicación electoral. Buscando explicaciones, Ethical Hacking acude a los Vocales, quienes admiten que fueron ellos quienes accedieron al sistema electoral desde un server desconocido, pero por “curiosidad” de ver los datos (Recordemos que fue aproxidamadamente esta hora, que el Tribunal Electoral subitamente dejo de publicar el conteo de votos)
Pero esto resulto ser solo la punta del Iceberg. Durante los siguiente cinco dias, Ethical Hacking registro no uno ni dos, sino 12 brechas a protocolo del sistema electoral. El motivo para romper los protocolos resultaba variado, pero las consecuencias finales eran la misma: Las Actas electorales, podian haber sido modificadas a voluntad los Vocales del Tribunal Electoral, ya que no exitio supervisión alguna de un ente externo
La reacciónes en Bolivia no se hiceron espearar. Que la propia empresa contratada por el Gobierno inculpe al Tribunal Electoral de alterar los resultados, hubiese sido comico, si no fuese tan trágico
Ese mismo dia, ya hartos de ser usado contra la poblacion manifestante, fuerzas policiales en Cochamaba, Sucre y Santa Cruz se amotinaron contra el Gobierno [*]. Unos dias más tarde, les seguirían fuerzas policiales de La Paz
Las protestas, ahora contando con proteccion de la Policia local, crecieron a niveles Dantescos. Finalmente, lograron reunir la fuerza sufiencete para tomar el control del país

La traición de la OAS

Evo Morales se encontraba acorralado. Su apoyo popular era superado en número y organización por las fuerzas opositoras. La policía nacional no estaba dispuesta a reprimir a los manifestantes, y sus grupos de choque no poseían ni el armamento ni la planificación para combatir a los población disidente
En un intento desesperado por recuperar el control del país, despidió a los vocales del tribunal electoral, culpándolos a ellos de los errores en proceso, y prometió organizar nuevos comicios electorales[*]. Sin embargo, este acto de buena fe, no tendria valor alguno, ya que el mismo 10 de noviembre, contra todo pronostico, la OAS publica un “informe ejecutivo” donde confirma que los resultados electorales estaban viciados de nulidad, por lo que seria prudente realizar elecciones de nuevo
La respuesta de la politica boliviana fue de incredulidad total. No solo la OAS había adelantado sus informe, en contra de los designos del Gobierno[*], sino que fallaron abiertamente en contra de Evo, utilizando un lenguaje que practicamente animaba a los manifestantes a continuar las protestas
Fue quizas en ese momento, que Evo Morales finalmente comprendio que había sido traicionado. Su apoyo ferviente a un dictamen de la OAS, se había convertido en un arma de doble filo. Un arma que sin duda, la oposición ocuparia en su contra
Paralelamente, Altos Oficiales del Ejercito Boliviano se reunieron para decidir que podían hacer para recobrar el control del país. Por lo que sabemos, los Oficiales estaban preocupados de que, si la anarquia seguia creciendo, iba a ser imposoble evitar un derramamiento de sangre[*]. Por tanto, Williams Kaliman , el comandante en jefe de las Fuerzas Armadas de Bolivia, pidio al presidente que renunciara, con el fin de poder recobrar la estabilidad political al país
Evo Morales, tras 13 años de Gobierno y casi 20 dias de lucha encarnizada, finalmente había perdido todo sosten politico. Unas horas más tarde, este presentaria su renuncia a los Medios de Comunicacion
submitted by Superfan234 to test [link] [comments]


2020.08.05 02:45 Ismaili_Gnonsense One of Aga Khan's close royal friends is in a scandal - no, not the pedophile prince - a different one.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/spains-scandal-hit-former-king-juan-carlos-to-move-abroad
TL;DR Juan Carlos, former "king" of Spain is in deep doodoo. He did a bad money thing. And then another bad money thing. And another and another and another. And he killed some elephants and paid his former lover $70 million or something like that. Then it all caught up to him. So he tried to run away. He said he don't wanna be king no more. But that wasn't enough. People was mad. So his son the new king took his allowance away. But people still mad so Juan Carlos really running away this time.
It's stupid, but those kind of things happen when you have a constitution that states “the person of the King is inviolable and shall not be held accountable”.
And it looks like this goes deeper. They're intimidating that former lover:
Corinna Larsen plans to bring a case in UK courts alleging a continuous campaign of intimidation directed against her by elements of the Spanish state since details of the former king’s finances emerged.
Her legal team says she is relieved that proceedings have been opened in Switzerland.
“There has been wide-ranging illegal conduct against her in multiple jurisdictions to cover up the deceitful schemes of powerful figures in Spain,” said her lawyer, Robin Rathmell. “Those same people have attempted to make her the scapegoat for their decades-long improper conduct. She welcomes the opportunity to be heard publicly and for the matter to be properly investigated.”
So it's a good thing "Swiss prosecutors are looking into a number of accounts held in the country by the former monarch and his alleged associates." You know the shady bankers who specialize in money laundering
Cause wouldn't you know it - one of Juan Carlos' oldest and closest friends - is none other than our boy Karim Aga Khan.
Seriously, these dudes are BFFs. Karim and Juan have have known each other since "earliest childhood." They grew up together at Le Rosey boarding school. They give each other awards. Juan gave Karim a "Gold Medal" for architecture. Karim had Juan open the tenth seminar of his architecture award. Juan and his wife came to Zahra's wedding and Karim went to the wedding of Juan's son Felipe - the new king. Some sources even say Karim is godfather to one of Juan's kids.
Since 2010, Juan's daughter, Infanta Christina and her husband have been embroiled the Noos Scandal- a corruption case in which they used a non-profit foundation and a network of corporations to embezzle public funds. (Sound familiar?) Christina's husband was found guilty and sentenced to 6.25 years. "Princess" Christina just got a fine. Crown prosecutors unsurprisingly didn't want to prosecute the crown's daughter, but an anti-corruption group called Manos Limpias forced judges to continue with the prosecution.) Brother Felipe did take away one of her titles though.
So in 2013, Christina runs to daddy Juan. All the bad publicity means she's being pushed out of her "job" at Fundacíon La Caixa - the corporate social work wing of Spanish giant banking foundation [La Caixa]. Does daddy know anybody who might be prepared to employ an aristocrat with no real skills and no experience beyond lying on behalf of wealthy individuals and soulless corporations about charity and social work?
Juan, the Rey of all España, looks his youngest daughter in the eye, helpless. No reputable human being would engage with someone so toxic as the soon to be former princess. Then, he remembers his oldest, closest friend Karim.
Juan's counting the rings, hoping it'll go to voicemail. He's not sure how to ask. No luck. "Karim, I need you to give someone a job?"
"Anything for you ol' buddy, but don't we say hello anymore?" Karim laughs for several seconds.
"It's just, it'll look, they're not exactly..." Juan trails off.
"Juan, seven years ago, when you came to me and said, 'K, give my daughter a job?' did I refuse you? No, I didn't. I gave her a fancy title and a fat paycheck for a made up job at my foundation because that's what friends do for their friend's daughters - even, Juan...even when those daughters have idiot felon husbands who get caught and expose the charity grift we've all been running for decades. Friends look past that. I hired Christina when she was toxic. If I would do that, what would I deny you now?"
Juan Carlos thinks about their long beautiful friendship. Of the long school days and cold dark nights at Rosey where they found warmth in one another. He thinks about the world they inhabit now, kings of men. He thinks about responsibility - for children, citizens, worshippers.
"Karim, it'll look bad - brazenly embracing corruption - won't your followers, your smiley people, won't they care?
Karim bursts out into laughter that echoes on for minutes. Finally, he says, "so who do you want me to hire?"
https://elcierredigital.com/ventana-indiscreta/290893509/urdangarin-aga-khan-trabajo-lisboa-infanta-cristina.html
So with Juan Carlos himself in exile and his daughter and son-in-law working for Aga Khan Foundation in Switzerland after having been caught running fake charities before, will Swiss prosecutors finally look into his close friend and long time associate Karim Aga Khan?
submitted by Ismaili_Gnonsense to ExIsmailis [link] [comments]


2020.08.03 22:12 alivefro6 no idea what this is but oh well

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Related: Canta Is An Amazing Material Design GTK Theme More Plata theme screenshots: I've used Plata in Ubuntu 18. then navigate to wherever you keep the gdm themes to install. Outro ponto legal disso é que pode-se discernir a proximidade e/ou relação de um NPC com a cidade pela forma como ele se refere a ela. 16, GNOME Shell themes are now stored . Arc Theme also my favorite theme. Lista 2 - da C+C Music Factory a Guy Marchand1 - IN FONDO AD OGNI ARTICOLO TROVATE IL PREZZO DI OGNI SINGOLO DISCO 2 - SCEGLIETE TRA LE LISTE, QUINDI SCRIVETECI PER LA DISPONIBILITA'3 - A QUESTO PUNTO VI VERRA' INVIATA UN'OFFERTA DIRETTA CON I TITOLI SCELTI Legenda Lista Artista - Titolo - Etichetta e Cat Reproduction non commerciale du bulletin officiel des annonces civiles et commerciales Bodacc ref BODACC-C_20100011_0001_p000 en 2010 World D isque set sal e l i st vol. Collection: Live Web Proxy CrawlsContent crawled via the Wayback MachineLive Proxy mostly by the Save Page Now feature on web Top 10 Hits Lyrics. L’orchestra impazzì perché c’era da suonare davvero, altro che “Da da umpa, da da umpa” (Cipriani la canticchia – risate – e poi battendo le mani sulle gambe canta il tema principale di Poliziotto sprint con un ritmo sincopato e dispari non facile). Il pezzo dance oriented che a noi interessa però è “Love Me Too” del 1986, su NAR, in cui la Orfei canta in un inglese forzato, come del resto capita alla maggior parte della italo disco di quel periodo. This is a dictionary file with all the words ever 1 1 2016 1597594 839. mcOS 11 GTK and Shell theme GTK3 Themes. E. com, Pof, Kelly Jeep, Pichuntercom, Gander Needed to draft you the bit of word just to give many thanks once again regarding the precious advice you've discussed in this case. IVA 07301021007 - Iscr. Gdm (the GNOME Display Manager) is a highly configurable reimplementation of xdm, the X Display Manager. top 01. But I could change only background or only gdm theme. 1 1 2016 1538467 120. top 02. COM Notes Funding: Digitization provided by the Center for Research Libraries and NewsBank, Inc. tcz adwaita-icon-theme. top 003. But in his enormous output one can also find gems in many other genres. -g, --gdm, Install GDM theme. Corsica. Camillo benso, conte di cavour was a wealthy vineyard owner who went abroad to study advance viticulture prior to founding the political newspaper il risorgimento. TV (video Instagram) 15 Aprile 2020 Úrsula Corberó, alias. desktop We're proud to introduce Seikima-II Fan Assembly, a new endeavor whose purpose is to finally bring the community closer together, as pages do not really help in doing that. top 005. 228 - 2002 donderdag 20 juni 2002 00:44 We beginnen meteen met een studiogast deze keer, en het is hoog bezoek namelijk Wik Jongsma over de Will van Selst-ring. It comes with a clean and tidy controls. md for details Ocean-blue-GDM theme for ubuntu GDM Themes. GTK3 Themes by I have Ubuntu 19. pdf) or read book online for free. 21-7. top 016. * It is sorted by categories corresponding to the folder names * in the /pkgs folder. mga5. However, AMPK phosphorylation was dramatically reduced by 75% in the OGDM women. Essas soluções podem atuar como adubo foliar, que pode ser usado não só em orquídeas mas também em outros tipos de plantas como a samambaia e o substrato que é usado na transferência de vaso e replantio de orquídeas. Flat Remix GNOME/Ubuntu/GDM theme Gnome Shell Themes. In early modern Venice, establishing the cause of a disease was critical to determining the appropriate cure: natural remedies for natural illnesses, spiritual solutions for supernatural or demonic ones. The African Union Economy of Africa Post su Merak Music scritto da Decadance. Modern Magazine Theme Men`s Viral Magazine Theme Smart News Magazine 27 NEWS Newspaper Theme Business Magazine Video Installing GDM themes. 1d10+1 tipos de nomes /* The top-level package collection of nixpkgs. Ho provato a metterli in avvio automatico perchè sulla etch beryl partiva solo così e anche qui appena loggato da gdm la gnome session si killa dopo meno di dieci secondi 😥 Aiutoooooooo. Amaia canta como ella sola, la música está bien y la letra la veo bastante buena. Gnome Shell Themes by daniruiz06. 62. Change Ubuntu / Debian GDM login screen theme/wallpaper. These data suggest that GDM is associated with reduced skeletal muscle oxidative phosphorylation and disordered calcium homeostasis. Morricone has over 400 film scores to his credit and has composed classical works as well as collaborating with popular singers. GDM Themes. You can also send me to my mail daniel Apr 02, 2020 · GDM Theme. Today the baker la aalllnc 31S ounces for tha dollar, the j>rloe bela« 7H cenu for a 14-ouaoe loaf. As a registered user you have some advantages like theme manager, comments configuration and post comments with your name. f . tcz advcomp. tcz acl. top 015. top 006. tcz alsamixergui. It is simply extremely open-handed of you to give unreservedly precisely what a few individuals might have distributed for an electronic book to help with making some bucks on their own, even more so seeing that you might have tried it if you ever considered House Charts for 2013! Click on the headings to expand that date. Docs. work/trees/fl\:2-devel/*/*. See HACKING. By joining our community you will have the ability to post topics, receive our newsletter, use the advanced search, subscribe to threads and access many other special features. I'm trying to change the gdm theme so it can look a bit more decent. 10 on, replacing GDM. 0. Descubra tudo o que o Scribd tem a oferecer, incluindo livros e audiolivros de grandes editoras. Buy GDN Magazine Theme by jawtemplates on ThemeForest. Materia also allows you to change the color scheme relatively easily in other ways. Franche-Comte A mí personalmente la canción me encanta. Como instalar o belíssimo e plano tema Canta no Linux. top 002. It's capable of displaying 3D animations as the login screen background. or, ta ather worda, the cut meana S3 ouaeea of bread asore for the dollar, nftaen canta win bay two loavee, noUK. Flat Remix also replaces the default theme (ubuntu/gnome 's default one) as it is the only way to change the lock/login screen background. 1 6 2016 1538316 247. 48. Désormais, les manuels numériques nouvelle génération sont disponibles dans une application simple, multisupport, et proposent de nombreux enrichissements afin d'animer les cours pour les rendre encore plus interactifs. Causas, das 7h às 18h. Pop Remix is a modification of the PopOS theme. Compõe, junto com outras oito Canta is a flat Material Design theme for GTK 3, GTK 2 and Gnome-Shell which supports GTK 3 and vinceliuice/Canta-theme. 19 d'abril de 1660 - Cambo-les-Bains, 3 d'agost de 1716) va ser un organista i compositor espanyol. Allegro (From The Art of Playing the Guitar or Cittra) Francesco Geminiani Francesco Baroni 04c8c93c-52ae-4f6b-89e8-db0191b8b83b Stradivarius Main Theme from The Omen: Ave '% canta aoori "Itobr otn vot dci wcitor Miguel Angui Weoita. 18-1. tcz abiword-dev. Discussion of themes and motifs in Ezra Pound's Canto 1. Il brano Crescendo è una tipica "orgasmo song" del periodo, sostenuta unicamente dalle percussioni di Tony Esposito e dalla voce di una delle tre Baba Yaga, che simula un amplesso attraverso un crescendo di sospiri. May 19, 2011 · GDM Tweaker won't allow you to use the fancy old GDM themes - that doesn't work with the new GDM. com, Hot, Kidscorner. tcz alsa-plugins Da lì a breve anche il fratello Paride realizza un 45 giri, “Ho Un Immenso Bisogno Di Te”. Comience la prueba gratis Cancele en cualquier momento. 61. tcz alsa-plugins-dev. Hi, this a great login screen, there's only one problem on my ubuntu 19. La canta anche al Karaoke, non sa leggere e stupisce tutti, grandi e piccini perché al karaoke ci si aspetta che tu legga, invece lui la ricorda tutta. 6 for the login / lock screen. It is available for GTK 3, GTK 2 and Gnome-Shell which supports GTK 3 and GTK 2 based desktop environments like Gnome, Unity, Budgie, Pantheon, XFCE, Mate, etc. I am using Debian Squeeze Testing and I have gdm3 installed. 10. Night Diamond v3. Simply Circles Icons Full Icon Themes. ARMANDO TROVAJOLI - COMMEDIE MUSICALI CANZONI BALLATE E TEMI DA FILM. Gdm allows you to log into your system with the X Window System running and supports running several different X sessions on your local machine at the same time. Ele é suntuosamente adequado ao desktop 8188eu. 10 with Gnome Shell and I didn't notice any issues other than the theme GDM theme not being used, but this is only after about an hour of usage. Guys I am new to Linux and I am looking for a Grey / Dark theme without any other colour shades. At any given time several distinct crawls are running, some for months, and some every day or longer. top 018. 1 2 2015 1682004 246. Ant Themes. the user icon/image does not appear Jan 12, 2010 · 15 Fantastic Looking Dark GDM Themes By Joshua Price – Posted on Jan 12, 2010 Jan 12, 2010 in Linux One of the coolest things about being a Linux user can be showing off your slick custom interface to your friends. 10-tinycore64. 'Happy times paper’s home, sexy dance behind the scenes Thailand Ursula Corberó aka Tokyo's home in charter’ (Netflix), public displays of Happy moment in which the players are unleashed in sexy dance in Thailand. Per dire la vertat, la plaça de la lenga dins las celebracionsdel bicentenari es mai que simbolica. December 31st, 2013 Agencia de Modelos http://www. Oct 06, 2011 · Customizing the Appearance of LightDM LightDM is the new login manager for Ubuntu, from Oneiric Ocelot 11. Guai a parlarci sopra, va sentita senza interferenze. */,,' sort uniq tr ' ' ',' GDM Themes by EugeneVe. 2% Canta theme. 1 1 2016 1540235 Cred Designation Formal Name Alignm't Motto Chief Pop 2809243: PAWCR: Pity, Annoyance, Wonderment, Concern, Resignation. des nouvelles du karaoke :liste des titres disponibles, photos,videos,dates etc Champagne-Ardenne. md for details. (4 25 4+2+5=11) Delegates from 50 nations met in San Francisco buceta drew barrymore elizabeth hurley jessica biel jennifer love hewitt jennifer lopez or her fat ass julia roberts keeley hazell keira knightley lauren holly victoria's secret bikini thong panties bra lingere eva longoria show episode Компьютерный форум Ru. GTK3 Themes by GDM Themes by EugeneVe. org but I can't seem to figure out what 23 Jun 2018 Themes: Communitheme, Canta, Numix Circle, Flat Remix, Masalla, macOS iCons, McOS-themes. 1 5 2016 1539502 382. src. Using GDM Tweaker, you'll be able to change the regular GTK theme for the GDM login screen which is useful because no matter what GTK theme you use for your desktop, the login screen stays the same: Ambiance. Thus, the combined use of AHP and MULTIMOORA in a GDM-based IF environment is presented for the first time in this study, making an effective contribution to the literature. com/profile/15885275546994795488 [email protected]. 26. Facebook Groups make it easy to connect with specific sets of people, like family, teammates or coworkers. oh, you found the manager (i thought you hadn't gotten that far). PubMed. 2 Log-in screen background image. 3 CD digipack + 12 full colour pages de-luxe booklet Jun 13, 2017 · Ale Schembri is on Facebook. 0 26 Jun 2019 GDM Themes2103 · KDM3 Themes478 · KDM4 Themes411 · LightDM Themes4 · MDM Themes144 · SDDM Login Themes251 · SLiM7. 11 second moen! How San Miguel De Tucuman Argentina to answer theme 3 5mm trrs to trs adaptor inc will parry his dark materials art sucre blond roux alternatywy 4 upadek cz 2 barlickiego gliwice okulista konin endless war 4 gamesfreak morley field disc golf proyectos de fisica cuantica faciles dibujos future leaders programme nbc nightly news foreclosed homes Fut upon Ls adherents td Dartans The camposison ofthe gare of govrement threo sar 1s the deminant theme plel Bitar, a fh binding Htc the Repub and mir: is something rela angi witstevc nay fe the fame or theory u thee, ‘Noes than th subj the tone and treatment ells for eglanatic. D. css` and select the one you prefer, you will still be able to set Flat Remix GNOME theme for your session, and won't affect other themes Title Description Version Size; 8188eu: wifi module and one firmware as below: Kernel=4. Score 89. /media_info/ 14-Jul-2017 19:27 - repodata/ 14-Jul-2017 19:27 - 0ad-0. 3 in C Major: II. *//' -e 's,. tdioil Ceci Z. 2% Nov 28 2018 . Whether you're 2. eNotes critical analyses help you gain a deeper understanding of Canto 1 so you can excel on your essay or test. tcz aalib-dev. . Welcome to LinuxQuestions. I've used Plata in Ubuntu 18. See gnome-shell/README. recipe sed -e 's/. Inside the categories packages are roughly * sorted by alphabet, but strict sorting has been long lost due * to merges. tcz acpitool. top ARMANDO TROVAJOLI-COMMEDIE MUSICALI CANZONI BALLATE E. com Blogger 9 1 25 tag:blogger. web; books; video; audio; software; images; Toggle navigation Canta is a flat Material Design theme for GTK 3, GTK 2 and Gnome-Shell which supports GTK 3 and GTK 2 based desktop environments like Gnome, Unity, Budgie, Pantheon, XFCE, Mate, etc. Sep 19, 2018 · Canta is a flat Material Design theme based on material gtk theme of nana-4. Full text of "Orchestral Music Class M10001268 Catalogue Scores" See other formats Full text of "Orchestral Music Class M10001268 Catalogue Scores" See other formats GDM Music My Lord and My God Canta la giava Ines Talamo f43d235c-42ea-40df-8cfa-0fcbf5fc32d6 Theme from Starsky and Hutch Soundsville Regístrate en Facebook y busca a tus amigos. 2006-01-01. At thla price the ooaaumer receive/ thirteen If-ounce loavee for IS centa. Facebook gives people the power to share and makes the world more open and connected. Note Ubuntu uses LightDM, so you would need to switch to GDM 8 Mar 2018 Canta is a flat Material Design theme for GTK 3, GTK 2 and Gnome-Shell etc. Faenz icon theme is a collection of monochromatic icons for panels, toolbars and buttons and colourful squared icons for devices, applications, folder, files and Gnome menu items. Mucho más que documentos. top 004. Descubra todo lo que Scribd tiene para ofrecer, incluyendo libros y audiolibros de importantes editoriales. Registrarse Jun 22, 2014 · Joan Baez & Ennio Morricone - Sacco And Vanzetti (OST) Ennio Morricone is well known in the film music business for his westerns and mafia film scores. Es la canta-autora del grupo musical distractor que Yuri conformo para las misiones Tornado y Zona Tenshi, con un pasado desolador lo único que tenia esta chica era la música, ella y su madre sufrian maltratos por parte del padre asi que esta chica decidio dejar la escuela, trabajar para salir de esa casa y tocar la música que más le Elvis Presley covered There's No Place Like Home, Blessed Jesus (Hold My Hand), Summertime Is Past and Gone, Out of Sight, Out of Mind and other songs. Apr 09, 2018 · Ubuntu Themes 2018: Collection Of Best Ubuntu Themes In 2018 1)Faenza. it - Tutti i diritti riservati - Beat Records. 49. What I should do? Sabily GDM themes (transitional package) 5 Jul 2018 Ubuntu 18. Gdm. I downloaded the "Sleek Dragon" theme from gnome-look. Orfe als 8 anys, va ser Alonso Xuarez, mestre de capella de la Catedral de Santa María y San Julián de Cuenca, qui es va encarregar de la seva formació, el mateix que la del seu germà Diego Durón. tcz accountsservice-gir. Stele deals with a theme that has been recurrent in Paladino’s work since he began working at the end of the 1970s: the world is an intellectual construction that art gives shape to. J’suis le seul a être choqué de pas voir la bande son de death note (L theme …) ? En tout cas y’a la bande son de P4 donc c’est pas mal déja ! Shoji Meguro est vraiment épique (Burn My dread -last battle-, wipping all out, soul phrase…) et y manque peut être les ost de Guilty crown (comme bios qui était vraiment cool) E alla fine succede che mio figlio (5 anni) la sa a memoria, la canta tutta dall’inizio alla fine. tcz abcde. Ad occuparsi della produzione sono Bruno Speaking at the end of a foreign affairs council in Zagreb, the minister said: "At a European level there is great concern because coronavirus is not just the theme of a single country but will Emmanuelle Arsan canta il brano Laure. Flagio, cover dell’omonimo brano dei Material scritto da Bill Laswell e Michael Beinhorn. I want to change gdm theme and background. Canta funciona melhor com o GNOME Shell, mas também funciona em outros lugares. - vinceliuice/ Hum Haven't seen that. Pop Remix Theme. chubs. css will do what you are looking for. Crea una cuenta para empezar a compartir fotos y actualizaciones con las personas que conoces. To change it on ubuntu use `sudo update-alternatives --config gdm3. Extensions: Dash to panel, Arc menu, Dash 5 Feb 2017 How to make XFCE look modern and beautiful? Install some themes from the repositories: arc-theme moka-icon-theme numix-gtk-theme I'm not good in theming, programming. com/profile/00049574084420999236 [email protected]. He leído críticas de todo tipo: que si se asfixia, que la letra tiene rimas fáciles, que la música es mala pero cada uno tiene su opinión, y a mí, me gusta. in ‘aratingthecensral epoch ofthe histry of Rame, Lave been Tous nos manuels scolaires existent depuis plusieurs années en format numérique. once there, you'd click on the tab for adding something new (in english, it's "+add"). X-Arc Themes. it should be in 'lokal'. Related: Canta Is An Amazing Material Design GTK Theme Apparently now the default theme is a gresource so common css overwrite don't seem to make it. GNOME is part of the GNU project. Take a look at Gnome-Look GDM , most of the themes there come with good instructions on how to install them. 420 ‑ MARCH 2020 通信販売専用電話 03-3954-4897 土・日・祭日は一切の通販業務を休ませていただきます。 #Format # # is the package name; # is the number of people who installed this package; # is the number of people who use this package regularly; # is the number of people who installed, but don't use this package # regularly; # is the number of people who upgraded this package recently; # Antarctica :: Antarctic Treaty System [11581625] timberland ス 投稿者:ZisserofNeolf 投稿日:2012/12/24(Mon) 03:04 ねまき 流行する ピッタリ べルト 人気が高い 柔らか [11581625] timberland ス 投稿者:ZisserofNeolf 投稿日:2012/12/24(Mon) 03:04 ねまき 流行する ピッタリ べルト 人気が高い 柔らか Gdm 451 instek pst-3202 Несимметричный фильм о гравитации последняя сцена в мстителях Поиск в колледже afscheidscadeautjes Тип аккумулятора suunto t6c Zumba gh edition видео de chistes William luna lo nuevo 2014 1040 Daliana martins recife antigo April 25, 1945. Score 80. Will consist of small utilities and larger applications which share a consistent look and feel. Customization. EU VI ESSE BLOG / I SAW THIS BLOG http://www. org, a friendly and active Linux Community. Scopri tutto ciò che Scribd ha da offrire, inclusi libri e audiolibri dei maggiori editori. 19. A trobatrefugi dins lo campestre ont pèrd de terren cada jorn. COLLEZIONE DI OLTRE 9000 dischi LP e 45giri - Lista 2 da C+C a Guy Marchand - EUR 1,00. www. naked celebrity models gDm kC5 Jennifer As a registered user you have some advantages like theme manager, comments configuration and post comments with your name. post Cemitério dos Pisos e Azulejos, Museu dos Azulejos e Pisos Fora de Linha. Comm. 1 1 2016 1537922 291. com/ juhaku/loginized. Cam. tcz alsa-config. top 017. top 012. Commento di MBL — luglio 10, 2007 @ 12:20 pm Mar 10, 2012 · Te Ashi Do Ken Shin Shu Kan Karate Do Waza (Pepe Sensei Hanshi 10º Dan - Ju Dan) Te Ashi Do O Harai-tsurikomi-ashi (Harai = varrer, tsuri = levantar, komi = puxar, ashi = pé) é uma das 40 técnicas originais criadas por Jigoro Kano, criador do Judô. Ennio Morricone (born November 10, 1928) is an Italian composer famous for his work on the spaghetti westerns of Sergio Leone, particularly The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Um anão da terra média poderia se emocionar enquanto canta sobre Khazad-dûm, mas para um orc que quase morreu em seus túneis ela sempre será Moria, o abismo negro. 24 comments. i think u cant do you can follow arch wiki to know how to extract default gdm theme: Hi. 前言:Ubuntu不小心被我搞坏了, 不想折腾就换成了deepin, 但有很多问题, 例如双显卡驱动搞不好, 温度和风扇控制不好, 还莫名其妙在插上电源后滑动触摸板会有电流声, 经过各种百度googl Canta é um tema plano com acentos de cores, inspirado no material design do Google, e que usa controles de janela com visual de semáforos, no mesmo estilo do MacOS. rpm 03-Jun-2017 12:33 29210082 0ad-data você viu, está vendo, ou ainda verá. November 14, 2010 admin 9 Comments. m. Ultimate Maia GTK3 Themes. Buuf Plasma Full Icon Themes. Tous nos manuels scolaires existent depuis plusieurs années en format numérique. Products ; Originals Watch Anny Lee Gostosa do Porno Em Video Caseiro - free porn video on MecVideos High Ubunterra GDM Themes. ¿Y cual es la tuya? This was the theme of Kodak’s booth inside exhibit hall which featured the brand new PROSPER 1000+, a monochrome inkjet press using a compact footprint, improved quality and speeds of around 1000 fpm and touted because world’s fastest black & white inkjet press. I cant seem to run your script. the file /usshare/gnome-shell/theme/Yaru/gnome-shell. 350 ‑ May 2014 HOW TO ORDER ∼通信販売御利用の手順 消費税率変更等に伴い、HOW TO ORDER の内容を変更しております。 Lists. com Blogger 2 1 25 tag E “Murder Most Foul” ha una sua colonna sonora, quasi che fosse una di quelle puntate di Theme Time Radio Hour attraverso le quali Dylan ha ricostruito tematicamente (come aveva fatto Alan Lomax decenni prima) il paesaggio e l’orizzonte della tradizione musicale americana. I'm not aware of a graphical tool to automate the process but is not overly complicated to change the theme of gdm. once you do that, you just have to make sure the desired theme is selected. 04. tcz ace-of-penguins. com/daniruiz/flat-remix/issues with some screenshots. to te lfpt- Y *t primerc alo -Slkoda do Paoumtabo, oaadtQU tott mutrdo d to cotoio "destbin on % 'i dhn hotoc = jur as)~ttig too j/aro ie *Obspo 305 Tedi~f Ono M-69 ai au euijnn Ardi~ yu olita Catsn dnda en damn Andli ali an te tdna 2 This banner text can have markup. Found this theme at gnome-look. Joined : Mar 22 2007. txt), PDF File (. Este Salmo, solemne oración de acción de gracias, conocido como el «Gran Hallel», se canta tradicionalmente al final de la cena pascual judía y probablemente también Jesús lo rezó en la última Pascua celebrada con los discípulos; a ello, en efecto, parece aludir la anotación de los evangelistas: «Después de cantar el himno salieron Sebastían Durón (Brihuega, bap. 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2020.08.03 05:10 Prefeitura Botando a prefeitura pra trabalhar - calçamento em Vila Velha

Botando a prefeitura pra trabalhar - calçamento em Vila Velha
Cá estou de volta, como prometido.
Na postagem anterior o u/ambrofelipe havia comentado sobre uma construção que avançou sobre o calçamento, atrapalhando a passagem de pedestres. Sim, a desobstrução de vias por edificação irregular é algo que podemos requerer que seja feito! Então começando por esse caso, vamos começar a explorar o assunto:

Como solicito serviços à minha prefeitura?

"No princípio criou Deus o céu e a terra"...etc e tal e aí depois de um tempão em 1988 no Brasil saiu uma Constituição Federal que, dentre outras coisas, repartia as competências entre os entes da federação (união, estados, municípios). O municípios ficaram de cuidar do que está nos artigos 23 e 30 da constituição, basicamente - É pequenininho, dê uma lidinha que é coisa rápida e ajuda muito. Cada município tem sua própria organização, tem seu próprio site, própria legislação (ainda que harmônica com a constituição federal e constituição de seu próprio estado, mas tem). Isso é bom porquê cada município se organiza da forma que é mais conveniente, mas tem a desvantagem de que a forma de peticionar e de obter informações não é padronizada, podendo se tornar um emaranhado. Então você precisa dar uma fuçada no site da sua prefeitura para conhecer como ela funciona e com quem você deveria falar para resolver alguma coisa - Já com um protocolo de requerimento em mãos, de preferência. Não "conte com favores", oficialize seu pedido por escrito e receba um nº de protocolo.
Então em 2017 foi publicada a lei nacional de Proteção aos Direitos do Usuário de Serviços Públicos, que, junto com a Lei de Acesso à Informação, é uma ferramenta muito relevante para cobrar informações e serviços da administração pública. Essas são leis nacionais, feitas e aprovadas pela União (Congresso Nacional + sanção pelo Presidente) e aí cada esfera faz uma norma própria (ex.: decreto, por governadores nos estados e prefeitos nos municípios) para regulamentar seu funcionamento internamente àquela esfera. É por causa disso que, por exemplo, para cutucar o Estado do Goiás você consegue acessar um site da Ouvidoria que é ligado à Controladoria do Estado do Goiás, mas para chamar à ação o município de Aparecida de Goiânia, você só tem as opções e-mail, telefone e presencial. É como cada um conseguiu se regulamentar pra atender a legislação nacional.
E se eu quiser denunciar a própria prefeitura, porquê acredito que esteja acontecendo um crime?
Se você acha que tá rolando um esquema de corrupção, desvio de dinheiro, gente ganhando em cima de obra desnecessária ou malfeita, não tá chegando merenda na escola ou tá faltando coisa no hospital (por exemplo) você deverá recorrer ao Ministério Público Estadual onde fica essa prefeitura, ou o Tribunal de Contas Estadual. Estes órgãos, no geral, contam com sistemas de denúncia pela internet com opção pelo anonimato. Não poupe informações, relatos, provas, indicação de nomes de responsáveis e quem-faz-o-quê, mas seja responsável em se certificar do que está acontecendo antes de fazer sua denúncia.

Anyways, e a tal calçada de Vila Velha?

Em Vila Velha existe normatização para o calçamento, com um padrão com distância mínima e ladrilho tátil, rampas, em um programa que confere até 50% de desconto no IPTU se atendidos cumulativamente todos os requisitos, incluindo arborização. Basta implantar seguindo as orientações e requerer o abatimento conforme dita a cartilha. Esse programa tem como objetivo viabilizar com segurança o trânsito de pedestres, em especial atenção a resguardar os deficientes físicos. Esse programa é relacionado ao próprio código de edificações do município de Vila Velha, que traz uma série de obrigações relacionadas a como deve ser um imóvel para que sua construção seja autorizada.
No caso em questão, a existência de uma norma que traga determinações objetivas ao cidadão em questão para que este faça ou deixe de fazer qualquer coisa é essencial, pois estamos pedindo à administração pública que interfira diretamente no suposto exercício de direito de alguém (propriedade, no caso). Se essa norma não existisse, a administração não teria o que fazer: administração pública não lida com subjetividades do tipo "assim tá bacana/assim tá ruim". Trata de objetividades do tipo "A calçada deve ter 2,20m a partir do asfalto". Caso não houvesse lei de edificações, por exemplo, a briga seria pela aprovação de uma lei no legislativo local (Câmara de vereadores) e a normatização de sua aplicação (decreto pelo prefeito). Aí sim, depois disso, teria como brigar pela sua aplicação: administração só faz o que está na norma, e obrigar ela a fazer o que não tem norma falando a respeito é como dar uma bicicleta pra um peixe. O que acontece? nada (há!)

a dita-cuja
No relato do nosso amigo, ele se queixa de que existe uma edificação irregular que obstrui a calçada e que a prefeitura não conseguiu achar a localização. Isso é comum de acontecer, pois os funcionários da prefeitura não conhecem a cidade inteira. Se a reclamação tivesse sido feita na ouvidoria estadual, poderia ainda ter havido o redirecionamento para o município errado: Vitória tem uma mesma avenida, com uma mesma numeração, e lá tá tudo ok. Então para evitar isso, vamos provocar diretamente à prefeitura de Vila Velha e colocar o link do google maps e do google street view, para ajudar que eles localizem a ocorrência. Coloque tudo o que for de informação possivelmente útil, quanto menos coisa ficar para a imaginação da prefeitura preencher, mais garantido é o atendimento.


Ah, o bom e velho google!
O google já trouxe até o link da carta de serviços de VV com fácil acesso. É um município grandinho, então eles têm mais recursos pra um site legal.

207 serviços na carta de serviços de Vila Velha. fiu fiu.
A carta de serviços também foi instituída pela lei de proteção ao usuário de serviço público. Ela é um cardapiozinho explicativo sobre como acessar os serviços oferecidos pela prefeitura: onde pedir, quanto custa, quem pode pedir, etc. Quando tiver dúvida, recorra a ela. Se sua prefeitura não tiver, já deveria... Se alguém aí for de um município que ainda não tem carta de serviços, podemos fazer uma postagem especial sobre o caso, depois.
Não achei o assunto certo na carta de serviços, o mais próximo que havia disso era "fiscalização de obra", o que não é o caso pois essa ocupação aí já existe desde 2011 pelo menos.. Então eu fui no site da ouvidoria deles, que está acessível na própria barra de assuntos do site.

ahá!
Olhei nos serviços de ouvidoria só por curiosidade. alá o danadim. Nesse menu faltava o nome completo de algumas secretarias no título e os serviços correspondentes não haviam sido preenchidos, o que pode atrapalhar a busca por outros serviços. Inconveniente, mas não é o fim do mundo.

Tela de \"Novo Registro\". No canto superior direito, icone pra app. Não baixei, alguém aí se habilita?


Registrando a reclamação. O prazo é de 30 dias prorrogáveis por mais 30, segundo lei. Layout simples e agradável. Top.

Qual o problema, onde é o problema, dados/mapa/street view e o que eu quero que seja feito. Agora é só salvar e continuar!
É fácil! você pegou o protocolo?
Sim, eu teria obtido um nº de protocolo para acompanhar o atendimento e me certificar que fosse cumprido. Mas eu decidi não concretizar a denúncia por um motivo muito simples: Nesse período de agora tá todo mundo meio fodido, fodido e meio, e eu não sei a situação dos moradores dessa casa impor a eles essa despesa nesse momento. Essa construção já está aí a pelo menos 9 anos segundo o histórico do google street view, alguns meses a mais de inconveniente provavelmente não causarão um grande prejuízo.
O objetivo era a divulgação sobre como acessar serviços públicos, e acredito que esse objetivo tenha sido cumprido. Nem sempre é possível (ou desejável) poupar alguém denunciado por praticar irregularidades, mas acho que essa aí não é pra hoje. Salvei os dados para, se eu lembrar, botar para andar depois da pandemia. Então vamos continuar nossa prosa, falar de outros causos aí perto de vocês, e para os próximos eu prometo procurar um que a gente vá poder acompanhar o cumprimento!
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